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 September 24, 2006

Ups and Downs

HIGH: 70
LOW: 58

After about 7 days with highs in the 60s and 70s... we will be on an up-swing for the first part of the week. Ahead of an approaching cold front... our highs should climb into the lower 80s by Tuesday. This is the upward part of the "roller coaster ride" Jeff described yesterday! Here is a look at the warm air coming in ahead of the front:

sept 24 850.gif
Click to enlarge

The front itself does not have a lot of moisture to work with... so the chance of rain is pretty minimal. But what we WILL notice with the passage of this front is much cooler air working in! Wednesday is an iffy day... with clouds around, we could be in the upper 70s... but then Thursday and Friday should see highs in the 60s! You can see the colder air pouring in behind the front:

sept 24 colder.gif
Click to enlarge

The particular map above is for Friday morning... which could bring our first frost, believe it or not! Lows could dip into the upper 30s, depending on cloud cover. Then we look to get warmer again for next weekend.

So temperature swings will be the rule this week... we will update you as we go along! Gary is heading to Vegas... I am sure he is very glad that he won't miss any real "exciting" weather while he is gone! :)

Posted by at September 24, 2006 8:44 PM


The chance of some frost late next week looks good for much of northern Missouri, and some low elevated river valleys in Eastern Kansas. The air behind this front looks very dry. The GFS has 850 temps near 0C, but the urban areas near Kansas City will probably be MUCH warmer for low temperatures. Usually, urban areas around the metro have to wait later for frost because of the heat island anyway.

You are right about the urban heat island. It does look cooler at the end of the week... but will it time out so the high is RIGHT over us Friday morning? It almost looks like it will be off... the high could be over us Thursday evening... we will have to wait and see!

Posted by: Devin at September 24, 2006 10:25 PM

Jamie - How is your pup doing with the food? Otherwise, the drought continues here, I am afraid, as September at my rain gauge will go out with only 1.22" of rain. This supports what I read about long-term drought in the 30s and 50s, where there was a wet spell, followed up by continued dry conditions. I believe the drought will continue, and probably be a multi-year affair - get ready for more BORING weather if that happens. BTW, as we approach October, it would seem we are stuck in a ridging to the west, trof in the east regime - aka dry NW flow over us. That is my reading of the Forecast Discussion tonight - yeah, I am of a skeptical nature. Sound familiar? That was the pattern last Fall, and during some or lot of the past year. My gut prediction is the pattern may be similar to the last year, hence, continue, if not exacerbated drought conditions. God, hope I am dead wrong, but somehow, I doubt it. .

Good to hear from you! Mags is doing great... I think we found out why she wasn't eating... her ears were really bothering her! We took her to the vet, after we noticed she kept shaking her head... and it turns out she had an ear infection. Sooooo we treated it, and now she is back to normal... gobbling up her food as usual! :)

I, too, hope you are wrong about the pattern... we definitely do NOT need anything like last year's to stick around!! Unfortunately, the rain chances aren't that great this week... so the dry conditions continue...

Posted by: StormDog at September 25, 2006 5:26 PM

Hopefully I am not violating a "Man Law" when I say this....but I am hoping for the first frost!!!!!

My allergies are killing me!

That is too funny... my husband and I always laugh at those commercials! :) We are both hoping for the colder temperatures, too... this allergy season has been worse than usual for us! (and it sounds like it has for you, too!)

Posted by: Walk at September 25, 2006 5:41 PM

NBC Action Weather team,

Do you think we have the same setup like in 1996 when we had the October suprise and recieved 7inches of snow? It seemes to me that there will be a strong push of cold air sometime in October. i want to know what think of this.
You guys are great!


It is too soon to tell if we will get any snow in October! Right now it looks like we will be starting the first week of the month well into the 80s!!

Posted by: Andy at September 25, 2006 8:35 PM

Jamie..what would you all do without us and our theories? Dog's drought predictions [though..so far correct over that wedge of Blue Springs], my SMC [Scott Mini Cycle] that seems silly, and Devin's El Nino GRC pattern interrupt [I think there is something to it]. I hope we make things interesting..seems we all have much more info to share before we come up with the ultimate conspiracy theory! ;-) LOL

I was interested in one of your previous post...can you expand on your statement?

"Tropical systems are not AS deep, and they tend to weaken with height."

I am not sure I understand. I guess weaken is a relevant term as both cold core and warm core storms both hit the troposphere, but the difference between warm and cold core resides more in the structure and formation..[temp gradient vs. condensation "warm core"] Really, at cyclogensis..there are many traits between the two that meet at similar traits to a MCC.

Its only after formation that they differ...btw, warm core can happen in the Great Lakes... ;-)

Yes, I know... keep the theories coming! They are very interesting... and it's nice to see others with the passion for weather!

As for my storm comparison...
Warm core lows typically come in two types... thermal lows (that can happen over land) and tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclones are most intense when they are vertically stacked... as you know, wind shear can mean the end to these systems. A cold core low is the opposite... they are strongest WHEN they tilt with height... and they DO appear on all of the atmosperic charts. That is what I meant by the TC's "weaken with height". You can often see a CC Low as a trough on the 300mb map... but typically this is not the case with TC's.


Posted by: Scott at September 25, 2006 9:49 PM

I belong to a forum and they were talking about extreme weather for their cities and now I am curious about KC. Can you tell me what the hottest temp, the coldest low temp, and the most snow (not nec 24 hour record but like 28 feet in 3 days) was for Kansas City?

Thanks so much. I will add it on the forum and tell them where I got the info from.

Hottest Temperature: 113 degrees on August 14, 1936

Coldest Temperature: -23 degrees on December 22nd and 23rd, 1989

Most Snow: 26" March 23rd & 24th, 1912
(this one is going off Jeff's memory!)

Hope that helps you!

Posted by: Keri Worley at September 26, 2006 9:15 AM

News flash.

The GRC will set up late this year. I think October/Nov will be following a bit of the current pattern. Dec will look completely different regarding temps and where the SW ridge sets up. I expect Oct/Nov to be colder than normal due to the strong ridging, with it shifting in Dec allowing for warmer than normal temps. Still on for my late Oct snow storm...and a warmer than normal late winter.

End news flash.

Your predictions are forever etched in blog history! ;)

FYI the GRC *ALWAYS* sets up between October 10th and November 10th... for the past 15 years, without fail. It might take one cycle through for us to see it... but we can always go back and see that it DID happen!

Posted by: Scott at September 26, 2006 12:33 PM


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