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 September 9, 2006

Rain Chances

Oh... they are there, all right! Rain chances continue right through the weekend! We are seeing light rain already this morning... here are rainfall amounts as of 7am:

KCI: .16"
DOWNTOWN: .01"
OLATHE: .05"
ST. JOSEPH: .04"
TOPEKA: .07"
EMPORIA: .05"
LAWRENCE: .02"

Expect these numbers to go up as the weekend goes on! This morning, our frontal boundary is north of us:

sept 9 sfc.gif
Click to enlarge

This front will continue to sag our way before stalling out someplace over the viewing area later today/tonight. Where this front ends up will determine who sees the heaviest rain. Right now, it is still looking like the northern 1/2 of the viewing area will see the most rainfall... but we will have to watch where that front ends up! It will not rain the whole weekend... there will be periods of dry weather... but expect several rounds of showers/thunderstorms through Monday.

This, of course, will help relieve some of the left-over drought conditions in the area. You can see the driest parts of the viewing area are shrinking, as recent rains are whittling them away:

sept 9 drought.gif
Click to enlarge

For those of you that keep track... please comment below with your rainfall amounts as the weekend goes on! Thanks, and have a good one!
Jamie


Posted by at September 9, 2006 7:01 AM

Comments

***************
I have to look very carefully..and I am not sure..but I think the extreme drought is still over Dog's house. ;-)

SCOTT:
LOL... You are on a roll lately... I bet Dog agrees! :)
Jamie

Posted by: Scott at September 9, 2006 7:48 AM

****************
Jamie, What time do you predict this rain to start in the metro this evening? Looks like the line is still sliding north of us.
Thanks,
Todd

TODD:
Most of the evening should be dry for us. I have dropped it to a 30% chance. It looks like the best chance will come Sunday afternoon/evening.
Jamie

Posted by: Todd at September 9, 2006 4:18 PM

**********************
Jamie,

Big concerns over tailgating tomorrow morning! Any ideas on what it will be like from 9-12 and for the game from 12-3?

Thanks, Randy

RANDY:
I just talked to Gary, who is also going to the game tomorrow. I told him to be mentally prepared to sit in the rain! That can be fun, right?? ;) Anyway, the BEST chance of rain will be during the second half of the game (70%).
Jamie

Posted by: Randy James at September 9, 2006 4:39 PM

************************
Broadcasting/program question. Most of the news is a smooth transition from story to story, and even the transition to Sports is easy. But what is with the uncomfortable chit chat about weather before the forecast? All stations do it, and it just seems awkward many times. Do you all have like to do this, and do you all discuss what you will talk about before the newscast?
Just curious.

SCOTT:
I am not sure why the weather chat always comes across as uncomfortable. I didn't have to do it tonight, as we went straight into weather... but I will see how it feels tonight at 10pm!

I typically don't script out something to say... maybe as they run the weather open, I will mention something to Keith or Cynthia about what I am going to start talking about. But mostly, the anchors just toss to me by summing up the day... and I go from there.

This can be especially difficult tossing BACK to the anchors if they have not paid attention during weather:

Jamie: "So, it's going to rain all day tomorrow"

Anchor X: "Great, I can't wait to enjoy the sunshine!"

Jamie

Posted by: Scott at September 9, 2006 6:48 PM

********************
Hi Jamie:

Wow the models were wrong again! This morning pop was 90%...and NOTHING happened all day. NWS dropped to 40%, and as of now it is dry! I am not convinced it is going to rain tomorrow. By the way, I hear a lot about "Convective Feedback" in the models. What does this mean? If I understand correctly, it just proves that you cannot depend on the data they are giving you because of this problem!

At least you guys will forecast with your guts and experience, and not hug the models. LOL.

HI, BRIAN:
We really weren't expecting an all-day rain today... but some of us got some light amounts this morning. The heaviest rain should come between Sunday afternoon and Monday morning.

Convective feedback is basically a model error... it has to do with how a model handles the vertical changes in temperature and moisture that are produced from convection.
Jamie

Posted by: Brian at September 9, 2006 8:15 PM

 
 

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