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Rapidly changing pattern
Good afternoon everyone,
The latest data is indicating the generation of a weak upper level storm. This is over the Rockies by Friday morning and moving slowly our way. A cold front is also moving our way Friday and should slide into the region by Saturday. These two features could combine to bring us some heavy thunderstorms.
Click to enlarge (500 mb flow valid Friday morning, 72 hours)
Click to enlarge (72 hr forecast surface flow valid Friday morning)
Above you can see the 500 mb flow forecast for Friday morning showing the weak upper level storm over the Rockies. And the main jet stream across Canada has generated a cold front that will make it here by Saturday. The second map shows the surface flow and you can even see our new Tropical Storm Florence entering the picture to the southeast. This will likely miss Florida and curve north across the Atlantic and possibly become a major hurricane. The east coast will be paying close attention to Florence for days.
We could end up with a lot of rain here on Saturday depending on how the features come together. Let's see how this trends on the new model runs. September is often a wet month, so let's get some rain in here. We will be making some special graphics for tonights shows on NBC ACTION NEWS. If we up the chance to 50% then you know I am leaning towards a wet Saturday, but if we keep it below 50% then we are hedging our bets.
Posted by at September 5, 2006 11:39 AM
Good evening Gary :)
I was reading your blog on second season of severe weather. Usually when I think of severe weather I, more often than not, associate it with spring. But a fews years back, (cough, ahem...) a math teacher of mine in high school told us about one of most deadliest tornadoes in Texas came about in November. Is there that much of a difference with spring and fall storms and the severity of them? Or does it really matter what season it is, as long as the set up is there for severe weather?
Thanks Gary :)
The ingredients for severe weather can come together at any time of the year. It just is much more likely during the spring months. November has had its severe weather moments and it is because we have had a few strong storm systems that created a spring like set up.
Posted by: Donna at September 5, 2006 6:08 PM
I noticed that the percentage chance is up to 60!!!! That means you feel pretty confident which makes me confident that we are about to get a good soaking pretty soon. If this event comes together is there any chance of some severe weather. If so any near Overland Park. I am in for some good strong to severe t-storms.
It doesn't appear there will be enough wind aloft, so it will be marginal on the severe weather threat. And, even though my confidence has grown that we will get thunderstorms this weekend it is still rather bazaar. Let's see what it looks like tomorrow.
Posted by: Jeff at September 5, 2006 8:57 PM
The low pressure you are showing likely is a piece of the reminents of Hurricane John. More than that low itself, I am wondering how much moisture it can bring up to meet the front. It seems in the 700/850 level maybe a weak anticyclone that may help further over AR, but I am not seeing much moisture. Also, it seems to have some weak flow associated with it. Dunno..not getting my hopes up.
As far as TS. Flo, I am already bored with it. I agree with some analysis that the Invest 91L to the east of it is too close and will begin to disrupt Flo from living up to its potential. If it gets too close, which it is starting to..you will get the dreaded Fujiwhara effect. Also..watch the newest wave off Africa...nice circulation, and further south. More of the US type. We will see.
Last year to this time, there were 13 Invests. All but two got named. This year, there are/have been 9 Invests to date. Only six have been named, with only one brief Hurricane with Ernesto. To the point of my earlier blog...same amount of storms [roughly], different results in formation.
Ernesto never became a hurricane or am I just forgetting?
John is long gone. So, whatever is out there is strange, but not John. The NAM is doing its usual thing tonight of NOT HELPING AT ALL.
Posted by: Scott at September 5, 2006 9:05 PM
Ernesto became a hurricane briefly before striking cuba.
Do you see a major rain event for this weekend? Possibly as much as last weeks?
Thanks for the Ernesto info. This weekend is strange. There is a cold front that if it gets down here will help a lot with this disturbance going by. Someone could see a lot of rain and we must wait and see how it sets up.
Posted by: Ben Tracy at September 5, 2006 10:14 PM
Ernesto was a hurricane on Aug 27th. Just for one or two advisory periods before hitting Haiti. Ernie never recovered.
As far as John, as the rains and tropical energy came up the east side of the baja, I think the remanents came up into some welcomed rain in AZ/NM, though the vort probably died and departed exit left. I think that the remaining tropical rain from the bands is what is confusing the poor NAM right now. It think it may be showing something that isn't really there. I will welcome the new runs tomorrow to see if it handles it better.
I had forgotten about the intensity before turning over Cuba. Thank you.
The moisture from John did stream over Texas and Oklahoma from the Gulf of California. And, then the system lost all identity as of Monday. Sometimes a big trough can form in the west later in September or early October and a Pacific hurricane can get picked up and we can be affected, but it hasn't been the right kind of western trough in years.
Posted by: Scott at September 5, 2006 11:22 PM
When was the last time a Pacific or Gulf hurricane got blown up this way? I'd think that if a hurricane hit near Brownsville, TX and got cought up in a SW flow that it'd really help out the drought situation over the south central states...
Also - has a late season hurricane ever combined with cold front around here? Seems like the perfect scenario for a monster blizzard!
As soon as we get into mid September the flow aloft is too strong to bring in a Gulf or Atlantic hurricane to our part of the nation. But, it has happened with a deep trough in the west. A hurricane in the Pacific can get picked up and it just becomes a major disturbance in the flow. It often is a wet pattern already that just gets wetter. I am hoping for something like that to set up this fall, but it takes a unique set up.
Posted by: Drew at September 6, 2006 8:24 AM
If we do get rain on Saturday, do you see it being scattered, intermittent storms throughout the day or an all-day, dreary rain?
It may wait until Saturday night or Sunday. It is still evolving.
Posted by: Marlina at September 6, 2006 8:33 AM
Notice the huge low in Alaska again? Look up on your map. This is the same type that blew through two weeks ago and ended summer. Looks to be about a week or so away. That would be about a month after the last one. Wonder if it can pull in the moisture and give us another large rain total. After that blows through, I will be watching for another cutoff potential about a week after that. [rut roh..sounds like a pattern or a cycle of some sort - prepares for the black eye]
No, it is in massive transition right now. Something very different is beginning to happen.
Posted by: Scott at September 6, 2006 9:22 AM
A change of topic for you. Any early predictions for Sept. 15-17? The Breast Cancer 3-Day is scheduled in KC on those days, bringing together thousands of people from across the US to walk 60 miles to fight breast cancer. Can we have highs in the low 80's, light drifting clouds, and no rain?
We will work on it. It is a bit too early to tell, but a weat weather pattern is trying to set up.
Posted by: Tara at September 6, 2006 11:24 AM
The western ridge is being reinforced by a 972mb Aleutian Low off the West Coast of Alaska. The GFS shows this feature not even moving after 5 days. The low continues to bring warm southwest winds into most of Canada. I believe this is keeping the Western US ridge strong. 850 temps in central Canada continue to be WARM because of the current blocking pattern.
Watch the next week or two. Major things are happening. The models do not have a handle on it.
Posted by: Devin at September 6, 2006 12:59 PM
I've been looking on weatherplus.com and was wondering if you know when they have that cool NBC Weather Plus University with the experiments and other stuff. It seems to come on Mondays and Wednesdays. Of course I'm new to A.W. Plus!!
I do like the Weather Plus University segments. This channel is just going to grow and get better and better.
Posted by: Andrew at September 6, 2006 1:05 PM
I have been watching you for a long time but I'am pretty new to the BLOG. I remember when you presented your weather theory,and hearing you talk about it-- but, where can I read more. I'm just getting a handle on the weather terms and I would like to find out more about your important theory. Just for fun I've thought about starting a weather diary and comparing it to the Old Farmer's Almanac. What do your think !!!
Keep reading our blog. I will be going into detail on my theory during October.
The comparison's to the Old Farmer's Almanac are fun, but it is almost always way off.
Posted by: Pat at September 6, 2006 1:38 PM
I am going do to Pomme De Terre this weekend camping and want to know if there is a good chance this rain could hit down there also.
It is already looking different. I think it will rain sometime this weekend, but I don't have the timing down yet.
Posted by: Stormy at September 6, 2006 4:39 PM
Hi Gary, hope all is well. Our deepest regards for your loss.
What's the possibility for rain Sunday? I see LJ running all over the Bungels in the mud. Peace out,
It will be amazing if it rains a lot during the game. It just doesn't happen very often. It could be nice during those three hours, and we just have to see how things set up.
Posted by: Steve Ambro at September 6, 2006 4:47 PM
i am creating a website called weather on the web, where everyday people take pictures and write blog posts about weather in their area and around the country.
if interested, please email me email@example.com
*again, email not comment!*
Good luck with your new site. But you better keep visiting ours!
Posted by: herb at September 6, 2006 5:50 PM
To follow up on Devin's comment and Gary's..something goofy is going on. Looking at the long term GFS [rolling dice, I know], it looks like the EPAC is having a 2005 Atlantic season. In the GFS MSLP, I see through the loop atleast 3-4 high density lows [tropical somethings] coming up near or around Baja. Normally, in regular seasons, they head almost due west, but this year, it seems to have more of a northern path. Also, it seems the lows coming in from the North [Alaska area] are pretty potent. I am completely lost now. I will keep logging patterns I see and hope here soon I will find a pattern of some kind be it the GRC, or some other pattern that might help explain things.
Remember.....I have been watching this happen every year since the 80s. So, It happens EVERY year (the development of a new pattern that cycles). Right now we are in the "wild card" part of the pattern that I haven't been able to explain. It is in chaotic transition from what was the old pattern to whatever is going to be the new pattern. As the jet stream strengthens something clicks into place and a cycle is created based on ?????. So, the GFS yesterday will be very different than what happens for real. This is usually the case anyway, but especially right now as energy is being inserted into the flow.
Another observation......The pattern right now resembles the pattern from this past year. So, we may very well be slowly spinning out of last year's pattern and into next years pattern during this entire transition period. I don't like to say this as I have been explaining how this pattern ended in August, but maybe it is just a dying version of it. Last year we noticed the same thing all the way into October when the old pattern truly was gone and something new had started..........A work in progress. But, I am still 100% confident that I am onto something with my theory. And, I know I have some good ideas and work here. Watch the next few weeks as it will be fascinating.
Posted by: Scott at September 6, 2006 8:33 PM
Don't worry about reminding me of snow. I'm always wishing for it. What are the chances of Florence scraping southern New England, mainly just north of the eastern tip of Long Island (i.e., southeastern CT and southwestern RI)? I know that's pretty much pinpointing it, but I noticed you mentioned a trough heading towards the east coast. Are there any highs such as a Bermuda high out there to prevent this?
Thanks for your great work.
There is almost no chance for Florence to be anything more than a hurricane over open water. It is just too far north. There is too much flow from the west across the northeastern U.S.
Posted by: Matt at September 7, 2006 12:26 AM
In September 1998, Tropical Storm Frances came ashore in Texas and moved north. The remnants dumped over 4 inches of rain in Olathe and 1.88 at KCI.
Frances did bring us 4 to 8 inches of rain right up the state line Septemer 13th and 14th which is still possible, obviously, but as soon as it gets passed mid September closer to September 20th you can really count the Gulf of Mexico out. The flow just gets to strong from the west.
Posted by: Rob D at September 7, 2006 10:27 AM
I predict, with 100% accuracy, increasing darkness towards dusk, then total darkness after nightfall, with occasional seasonal bouts of moonlight, followed by lightening towards dawn. It will definitely rain...somewhere, and snow...somewhere...
Geez, StormDog is a genius!!!! Now for the chicken entrails over the door!!! :)
Seriously, all patterns are unique or weird, and it is the only the average that is "normal". There really isn't such a creature as a normal pattern. Or a normal person - as I say, "Sanity is the average of every person's insanity"
Wow, so deep. The weather pattern is getting exciting. You may be able to actually enjoy weather soon.
Posted by: StormDog at September 7, 2006 3:08 PM
I am getting married September 30th here in KC. Is there any way to tell what the weather will be like that day? Please let me know!!! Thanks!
PS.- I am so sorry about the loss of your beloved pet.
The weather is often rather nice at the end of September. The average high is 74 so we will hope for the best.
Posted by: Betsy at September 7, 2006 4:05 PM