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 September 4, 2006

Second Season of severe weather

Good morning and happy Labor Day!!!

It has been almost two weeks since Windy died. And, I was able to read all of the blog comments, letters, and emails this weekend. There are still a few left to read, but not many. I am so touched by the effort some of you put into this and how Windy touched some of your lives as well. Some people have made donations to various shelters and this will help other animals as they try to find homes, and others sent in poems, pictures, and memories of their own experiences. Thank you so much. Breezy, Stormy, and I are doing very well.

September has arrived, and it has once again dried out. Have you noticed? The weather pattern is in massive transition this week. The jet stream is strengthening slowly and beginning to dip and rise in places unlike in the past few months. Severe weather season begins in March and reaches its peak in May and early June before falling apart by summer. There is a chance of a "second season" where the conditions can be similar to spring depending on the weather pattern. It isn't the same as during the spring months for various reasons. As the jet stream strengthens and dips further south we begin to have the potential for spring like set ups. This most often occurs between September 15th and October 15th. Then, the cold fronts often get to strong and later in October and November the set ups don't usually have enough moisture and severe weather conditions, unless the storms are powerful, which has happened in November in recent years. But, the mid September to mid October time frame is more like spring. It will completely depend on the weather pattern that is chaotically shifting about this time.

Have a great holiday. I am going to look at all of the entries for the "hottest day" contest and announce the winner later today or tonight.

Gary

Posted by at September 4, 2006 11:37 AM

Comments

****************
Gary I am loving the weather. Fall is my favorite time of year. I know summer hasn't officially ended. What do you think of the chances of having some 90 degree temps again before the cold cold air stays?
---------------------
Ann,

Last year it was 85 or higher 17 days in September. So, we are really getting a treat this year. We hit 90 as late as September 21st in 2005. So, the odds are high that will have another nice run at much warmer tempertures.

Gary

Posted by: Ann at September 4, 2006 12:02 PM

**********************
Gary:
Just a comment from West Central Mn. We had our best rain over the weekend about 2" worth. This is the largest rain since April 29-30th time frame. I have noticed that it is this time of the month that we have received our rain. The end of June rains in our immediate area were a little less than what we needed but the heavier rains were around the area. We had about the driest area this summer. The 60 day pattern was the pattern up here though.
If you see any frost coming up here I appreciate hearing from you. Can't wait to see what the next cycle brings in the coming months.
Our crops are about safe from frost now because of the hot dry summer, we are about two weeks ahead of schedule as far as maturity goes.
I am glad you guys finally got some rain and got out of the drought groove.
In 1926 the highest recorded temp was 96 degrees and also the rainfall was 4.5 inches of rain. Must have brewed something up.
How are the tropical storms lining up with the number predicted earlier?
Take care
Rod
----------------------
Rod,

The prediction for hurricane season has not panned out. It has been almost nothing compared to last year but we are just reaching peak hurricane season so let's see if it picks up in the next couple of weeks. I doubt it will besides two or three hurricanes one of which may still threaten the U.S.

The cold fronts are getting stronger. I am glad you reeceived some nice rainfall.

Gary

Posted by: Rod at September 4, 2006 2:01 PM

******************
Ok. I have been beaten into submission. Though still believing in the energy transfer to the poles establishing the GRC, I need to find the core answer. Why does it set up in Oct/Nov, and not when the summer pattern dies. Why does the ENSO/AMO not define the patterns, but only influence them. I need to know, or I may not sleep for the next few years. ;-) Gary, I can only imagine if the thirst of knowledge I have on this is similar to your passion, it can be excruciating at times! And the times where there seems to be some reward, it is fleeting as things are always changing.
-------------------------
Scott,

The reward comes when we can pick out the pattern and then see the cycle. The extreme frustration comes from two directions. 1) No one believes us and even though this is frustrating it still is also rewarding when only we know what the pattern really is and it ends up helping our forecasting, 2) Why is it happening? This is extremely frustrating. But, this is where I welcome your ideas.

Gary

Posted by: Scott at September 4, 2006 2:04 PM

**********
Gary - Glad you all are doing ok - you will always have the spirit of Windy around you, as your other Sheltie (sic) dog before - I forget her/his name just now.

Yep, back to a dry forecast - glad we got the rain we did - I am not convince the dry is over, but in a transition, you can't really tell. I think I won't have to move the yard next week - mowed today the scraggly bits feebly attempting growth up towards the sun - weeds definitely have the edge in this endeavour!!!!

Oh hum...whatever...
---------------------
Storm dog,

I hope it rains soon. I don't want you to tell me I told you so.

Gary

BTW, thankfully, what a bust the NOAA forecast has been for hurricane season! Gives the oil companies one less excuse for ripping off the public.

Dog

Posted by: StormDog at September 4, 2006 4:34 PM

*******************
Gary,
Hurricane season so far is not developing as earlier thought. God willing it will stay somewhat calm. Ocean temperatures have a big part to play in the strength and/or development does this give you any hint in beginning to predict what is in store this Fall/Winter for KC?
Thanks,
Chuck
------------------
Chuck,

I don't believe Ocean temperatures have much to do with the weather pattern that will be developing this next winter season. Oh, there may be more of a correlation than I believe, but something bigger is going on. So, right now I believe there is no way to be able to tell what could happen this next fall and winter until mid to late October.

Gary

Posted by: Chuck at September 4, 2006 6:16 PM

**************************
Just to add a bit of clarity to the hurricane season. Its not that this year has been much more quiet than last, its that the trade winds have been much stronger causing sheer which is the enemy of forming storms. Also, the increase of Saharan dust has contributed to a somewhat drier atmosphere. As far as the temps of the water...remember..more wind equals more evaporation, which in turn keeps the temps a bit lower. This year is still above normal for temps, but with the sheer and dry air...cyclogenesis has been tough. If you look at the amount of Invests [Navy designations for forming storms], it has been pretty close to last year..they just aren't developing this year. Last year, seems like every storm that could form, did..and hit the US. This year is more like normal.

If indeed much of the ITCZ moisture and energy stays in the tropics, I wonder how this year may look as contrast to last where much of that energy came to the poles. This is the crux of my theory, as the other cycles only help to explain it. I have to believe this GRC should be the polar opposite [pardon the pun] of last years. I can't explain how yet, but basing it off just this part of my theory. We shall see. Another theory I have to chase is to watch patterns at the 850 RH level. I have a thought of cycling moisture from the tropics moving N and S based on some cycle. This mixing with the GRC would give a better indication of when things might be wet vs dry. I think this is a cycle as well. So much to chase down....
-------------------------------
Scott,

I strongly agree with your last statement that the tropics are also going through a cycle, and it could be somewhat related to my theory, but I must disagree with your first statement, this season is almost the exact opposite to last year, at least so far, but it is likely to continue. The forecasts were simply bad forecasts.

Gary

Posted by: Scott at September 4, 2006 8:00 PM

******************
It feels great out there, but I am ready for things to rev-up again!( at least some wind or something). On the Severe weather second season, I have always thought that one reason it is not as intense as the spring season is because, the part of fall that "Temperature wise" matches spring has a much lower sun angle than is conterpart in spring( by mid September our sun angle is the same as late March). Just wanted to hear your thoughts on that.
Thanks for your time.
Nick in St. Joe!
------------------------------
Nick,

Good idea but it is more related to the fact that the jet stream is just coming down and hasn't established itself yet in the fall. It takes a while, sometimes, to break through the anticyclone in the southwestern U.S. Whereas in the spring it is already strong and further south, but weakening.

Gary

Posted by: Nick Rau at September 4, 2006 8:11 PM

********************
Dear Gary,

I have been waiting to email you about Windy, hoping to come up with some perfect words to comfort you. There are no perfect words, just lots of sympathy. What you shared with Windy was truly special and can never be replaced, or forgotten. You saved her once,and then she helped save you later, when you were in the fight of your life. She will always be with you in spirit. They really are furry miracles, aren't they? Please know that the heart of this animal lover is with you and wishing you well. It is such a joy to watch your passion for what you do, and for the animals. Thanks for all the good work you have done, regarding the weather, and the animals! Take care of yourself, and try and remember all the happy times you shared with Windy. I know Stormy and Breezy will be right by your side.
--------------------
B.,

Thank you very much! I have so many positive wonderful memories of Windy and I will remember forever! She was special.

Gary

Posted by: B.Smith at September 4, 2006 10:52 PM

******************
Gary,
Will you please bring Stormy and Breezy to the Patriot's Run in Olathe at noon today?
The Patriot's Run honors those lost on Sept. 11, but additionally, it provides all its donations to Spouses And Families of those everyday heros in the military, firefighters, and police departments-SAFE (Spouse And Family Endownment). This isn't an ordinary run.
*Many runners will run 9 hours and 11 minutes.
*The man who has won recognition for running barefoot will be there today.
*PJ O'Toole, the HandyFolks dog will be there along with many others from all over the US. There is a man returning who lost 3 friends in the World Trade Towers. He runs in all black clothes with his friends names on his back.
*There is a 90 year old woman who regularly runs 5Ks who will run today.
*The Platte Co. Sheriff's Dept is bringing a team again this year.
*The Marines are coming in their Hummer and will run two teams.
It's great fun and I have donated my time to volunteering for it each year.
Finally, will you please bring a camera crew at 9:11pm to see who has lasted for the whole race. You'll be amazed!
-----------------------
Dedra,

I am sorry that I was out of town. This must have been a moving experience.

Gary

Posted by: Dedra Bautts at September 11, 2006 7:38 AM

 
 

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