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Strong upper level storm
Good afternoon everyone,
(See the previous entry for the surface development this afternoon)
A very strong upper level storm is developing by Thursday morning look at the GFS forecast for 7 AM. An upper low and vigorous vort max has bottomed out near the southeast corner of Colorado. This will now move northeast into Kansas during the day passing to our northwest Thursday night. This will cause a strong surface low to develop, so if you have a barometer watch it fall like a rock tomorrow into tomorrow night. Notice the diffluent flow aloft over eastern Kansas (look how the lines spread apart with one going north over northern Kansas and one going east northeast over eastern Kansas). When the air aloft is divergent the air below will rise to replace the escaping air. So this means there will be wide spread ascent of the air and thunderstorms are the likely result. Moisture is limited but we should have some widespread rainfall before this system lifts out. Various things could still go wrong but I am not counting on any of them at this moment.
 Click to enlarge (500 mb flow Thursday at 7 AM)
Have a great day! I will have extensive coverage of this developing storm tonight at 5, 6 and 10 PM.
Gary
Posted by at September 20, 2006 11:27 AM
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Gary I appreciate your great website. However, I have come to hate your stations home page. When you open it initially it blasts a video at you immediately.
Sinc3e I often check the weather early in the morning when the res tof th ehouse is asleep - this can be a problem. If others have a problem witht his let the webmaster know - maybe they can change it toa more courteous home page!
Larry
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Larry,
I don't disagree with you and I will pass on your concerns.
Gary
Posted by: Larry at September 20, 2006 12:20 PM
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Gary,
Is it too early to know the timing of the rain for tomorrow? Is the whole day a washout? Thanks.
Derek
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Derek,
The most likely timing on the rain is mid to late afternoon.
Gary
Posted by: Derek at September 20, 2006 12:55 PM
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Gary,
There's to be a neighborhood block party for Sunday at 4 PM in Lenexa. Will the sun be out in the 60' forecast??? And how about kids soccer games for Saturday??? Did you view the Sedona pictures???
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Ginger,
It looks dry with a few clouds around.
Gary
Posted by: Ginger at September 20, 2006 1:18 PM
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Gary, tomorrow sure looks to me like the cold-core setup of Nov 27 all over again. That day had 16 tornado reports over C. Kansas.
We'll just have to see what happens with the moisture.
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Ryan,
Just no moisture available.
Gary
Posted by: Ryan at September 20, 2006 2:19 PM
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Gary and Jamie,
Found this website and thought you might enjoy these Missouri Pictures.
Thanks & keep up the good work.
Don & Sue Martineau
http://www.missouriskies.org/rainbow/february_rainbow_2006.html
DON & SUE:
I have seen that website before, and I think the pictures are amazing! I particularly like the 3rd one down... with the tree in the middle!
Thanks for sending it!
Jamie
Posted by: Don & Sue Martineau at September 20, 2006 4:09 PM
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Hey Gary...wanted to find of if you think it'll snow earlier than normal because of this wacky pattern that seems to be developing. Also, are you guys gonna put "Jamming" Jamie on the web??? I gotta tell you, i almost spit out my diet coke when I saw that. It was great! I'm glad she had a great time at the "K"
Jennifer
JENNIFER:
Nobody knew my hidden dancing talents, huh? ;) I thought what happened at the K... stayed at the K... but obviously not! The video is on our website...
http://web.kshb.com/kshb/video/index.shtml
If you click on "Watch Gary's 10 p.m. Weathercast: 9/19"... it is at the end of his forecast.
About the snow... it is REALLY too early to tell when the first measurable snow will be! But give it a good guess, and be sure to enter the Snowflake Contest in the next few weeks!
Jamie
Posted by: Jennifer and Kelsey at September 20, 2006 4:28 PM
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Gary,
Do you think you will update the rainfall forcast for tomorrow. I am hoping overland park sees a real line of thunderstorms move through. Any severe weather threat for tomorrow.
Thanks
JEFF:
There is a 100% chance of showers and thunderstorms today. We are not expecting severe weather, just some much-needed rainfall!
Enjoy!
Jamie
Posted by: Jeff at September 20, 2006 5:58 PM
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I'm going to be at Worlds of Fun from 6pm to midnight Friday night.... Any idea when the possible rain might arrive over that night?
Joy
JOY:
It looks like there could be some rain in the area between 1pm and 7pm... tapering off after that. Hopefully it will be brief in your location, so you can enjoy the night!
Jamie
Posted by: Joy at September 20, 2006 11:05 PM
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This is to Larry (first post above)... Just bookmark the weather page. I share your distaste for the blaring video. A ton of websites do this now and it is annoying. Good day!
HANK (and LARRY):
I agree with you, too! I typically don't have my speakers turned on when I am surfing the net... but when I do... it can be a little annoying to have that sound when you first log onto a site. Good idea to bookmark the weather page, though!
Jamie
Posted by: hank at September 21, 2006 9:07 AM
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Jamie,
That was some excellent dancing. I loved it. I too hate the videos that start when you open a webpage, so I bookmarked the weather blog page. No more annoying videos.
KERI:
Thank you for appreciating my dancing skills! ;) Good call on bookmarking the blog! That's what I have bookmarked at home!
Jamie
Posted by: Keri Worley at September 21, 2006 11:10 AM
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Jamie...the SPC nearly has in a Moderate Risk tomorrow For severe weather! Do you agree with them on that?? Thanks!
Adam Penney
HI, ADAM!
The Moderate Risk is well to the east of KC. It looks like Friday will be a rather nice day, with a slight chance of thunderstorms in our extreme Southern/Eastern cities.
Jamie
Posted by: Adam Penney at September 21, 2006 1:45 PM
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I see they issued a Moderate Risk for severe weather to the East of us for tomorrow. I was wondering if you beleive we have a chance to see some significant weather, or will it form to our east during the early afternoon?
Keep up the good work
Kinley
KINLEY:
It looks like the strongest storms will stay to our east.
Jamie
Posted by: Kinley at September 21, 2006 1:55 PM
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The SPC has issued a MODERATE RISK east of KC for Tommorrow(Friday). Do you think it will Rain here?
ANDREW:
We do not think it will rain in Kansas City.
Jamie
Posted by: Andrew at September 21, 2006 1:58 PM
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Gary,
I was looking at the radar out of Wichita and it showed a Tornado Warning for NW Russell County. How does the Baldwin-Ottawa Football game look to you, the game is in Ottawa?
RYAN:
Sorry we got to this too late...
Jamie
Posted by: Ryan at September 21, 2006 2:34 PM
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I saw on the NWS webpage they are forcasting a moderate risk of severe weather for tomorrow. My family has outdoor plans for the afternoon and evening. Do we need to cancel our plans? Thanks.
ROBIN:
You should be fine... Kansas City and the surrounding Metro area looks dry today. As for some of our communities south and east... like Nevada and Clinton... there is a 30-40% chance of thunderstorms there.
Jamie
Posted by: Robin at September 21, 2006 2:40 PM
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I just noticed they put a big chunk of KS in a Tornado Watch (west of the viewing area). Any chance of severe weather here or is the Weather Service just bored of long boring stretch of weather?
HANK:
I believe we had one tornado warning... and a severe thunderstorm warning or two... but that was it. Today should be dry in Kansas City.
Jamie
Posted by: hank at September 21, 2006 3:18 PM
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Hello,
Do you expect more rain tonight or tomorrow? Any severe weather. Threat of tornadoes?
BEN:
The threat of severe weather will be south and east of Kansas City today. Tonight, we could see a few showers/thunderstorms into early Saturday morning. But then dry for the weekend.
Jamie
Posted by: Ben Tracy at September 21, 2006 3:44 PM
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Jamie,
The CPC has updated its seasonal outlook, and has some interesting things to say about the current ENSO situation. Apparantly, we will now have a moderate strength warm episode during the winter season. Why do these events seem to usually develop during the fall/winter? I have a bad feeling that it will be another warm winter.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxus05.html
Devin
DEVIN:
Thanks for the link... I will try to get to it later today... :)
Jamie
Posted by: Devin at September 21, 2006 3:58 PM
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