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 September 26, 2006

Temp Swings!

HIGH: 82
LOW: 51

It feels a little like summer out there... (well, summer WITHOUT the humidity!) In fact, it is a rather nice afternoon... with highs in the lower 80s and wall-to-wall sunshine!

We are tracking an approaching cold front for Wednesday. As we talked about over the weekend... this front will bring a BIG temperature change to the area. It is also going to bring us a slight chance of rain! There is not a whole lot of moisture for this system to work with... so amounts should be light... but we've at least upped the rain chance to 40%. Here is the accumulated rain forecasted by the NAM/WRF and the GFS... note the heaviest rain could end up northeast of KC:

sept 26 acc rain.gif
Click to enlarge

sept 26 gfs.gif
Click to enlarge

Then COOLER COOLER COOLER for Thursday/Friday!! Highs will be near 60 on Thursday... and we are still seeing a chance for a scattered light frost Friday morning. But this more fall-like weather won't last long, either!! Believe it or not, we could be into the 80s by the end of the weekend... more to come later!

Enjoy the day!

Posted by at September 26, 2006 3:16 PM



The chance of frost looks very good for most of northern Missouri because the GFS keeps the colder air in that area the longest.
I see that the models are building the heights again in the West after this weeks front. Once again, the coldest air is further to the northeast, and the plains experience downslope conditions.
Many weak/moderate El Nino episodes in combination with the GRC produce colder than normal conditions for the Great Lakes and Northeast. The latest CPC animations continue to show increases in SST anomalies in the Eastern Pacific.
One thing is certain. I predict the coming Janruary to be colder than Janruary 2006 was for us :)


The 18Z GFS is actually a little warmer for Friday morning... with the NAM keeping colder air in place over N. MO. It will be close, though, we are still going upper 30s.

A ridge will build in Sunday/Monday... pushing temps up again! We could be in the mid-80s, believe it or not!!

We need to keep track of all the bloggers forecasts to see who is right! ;)

Posted by: Devin at September 26, 2006 4:46 PM

Jamie...good analysis on the cold core vs. warm core. Very helpful. I will keep an eye on the 300mb bit to observe it myself.

As far as the GRC..before I can believe hook line and sinker, I will need to understand what the fingerprint of this years GRC is. I hope you all will communicate the factors. It will help in understanding the changes, and will put me at ease then when you blow my theory out of the water. ;-)

BTW..after this cold front, we should have another quick low behind it..maybe 2-3 days. That one will resemble more of the cutoff or blocked low from the NE.

Once the cycle sets up... Gary will definitely be talking more about it. So stay on the blog, and he will keep you posted! I will be watching for your quick low with a blocky pattern soon... let me know when you see it!

Posted by: Scott at September 26, 2006 4:48 PM

Look at the 84 hr GFS...you will see it forming. ;-) Oh..and I will be right, as Gary will be and so will Devin!

Ok... I'm watching it! :)

Posted by: Scott at September 26, 2006 7:52 PM

Hi Jamie,

I haven't seen any comment on this, but congratulations on the dance off at the Royals game! It is always great to see people outside of where you would normally see them, and having fun at that!

Keep up the great work at KSHB!

I have a feeling that tape will come back and haunt me someday! ;) No, it was really FUN to be in the dance-off... I had always wanted to do it, and I knew that would be the last game I went to this year... so I went for it! :)

Posted by: Michael Graham at September 26, 2006 8:10 PM

Jamie, I was wondering, I have outdoor plans this evening, any idea of when we might start to see some rain and cooler, breezy conditions???

We have already seen some sprinkles out there... and the chance of light rain is with us throughout the evening hours. There is some heavier rain to the northwest that would reach us after 7pm or so. The winds should start to pick up in the early evening, too. It will be quite blustery tonight!

Posted by: Lindsay at September 27, 2006 8:09 AM

Wow mid 80's again, that is going to feel wierd after all this cool air. BTW the only "prediction" that I have is that I think we will see at least one ice event this winter, really it is too early to tell because the GRC will have most controll over it, but El-Nino tends to strengthen the subtropical jet wich I think will increase the odds of a moist southwest flow aloft with a thin layer of cold air sliding down at least once this winter. The last few El-Nino winters that I remembered seemed to slightly favor ice I belive, there could be some I've overlooked though. Thanks for your time,
Nick in St. Joe!

We are due for an ice event... we did not have a single ONE last year! We'll see how things set up!
Thanks for blogging! :)

Posted by: Nick Rau at September 27, 2006 4:02 PM

Hello Mrs. Jarosik,
Leavenworth got some very heavy rain just after 8:30 only lasted about 5 minutes though. Atleast a tenth of an inch, closer to a quarter of an inch.
Anymore rain in the near future?

Thanks for the report! We will go with dry conditions for most of the next 7 days. There will be a chance of rain again sometime next week as a front approaches.

Posted by: Ben Tracy at September 27, 2006 8:45 PM


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