« Tricky Weekend |
| Weekend forecast »
Tracking a Weekend Storm
Hey... the great weather continues around here! Yesterday's high made it up to 83 degrees, and we should be a few degrees warmer this afternoon... with partly cloudy skies. The chance of rain increases as we head into the weekend!
However, it is still a very tough forecast for the weekend! A front will be coming in from the North, and at the same time... an upper level wave will be moving in from the West. Someone will see some significant rain... here is where the NAM/WRF and the GFS think that rain will be:
Click to enlarge
Click to enlarge
Both are trending to keep the heaviest rain in the northern 1/2 of our viewing area. But it is something to watch, as the placement of the front/wave will ultimately determine if that is the case. Gary will have an update later today with NEW DATA!!!!
Have a great RED FRIDAY!!
Posted by at September 8, 2006 9:06 AM
Its official. El Nino is here.
It appears that that El Nino will put a quick end to the hurricane season in the Atlantic. This will signifcantly impact my theory of energy distribution to the poles.
Very little has made it up to the poles this yesr so far..the EPAC has helped some, [not suprising with El Nino firing up], but this pattern is going to be very interesting this year.
In most El Nino years, it gets a bit wetter and cooler to the south and a bit warmer to the north. This may reek havoc on the results or effects of the unaffected GRC.
This will be a hoot to watch and study.
From what I read... it is not HERE yet... we are still in neutral conditions. But a weak El Nino could develop over the next several months.
Posted by: Scott at September 8, 2006 9:47 AM
Yes, officially..it is not here yet. The CPC normally trends 3-5 months before making an official statement. However, if you look at the SST maps for the last 3 months and projections for the next 6..its here now. And that would explain alot in the Atlantic this year, and contribute how Ioka lasted forever as a Cat 4-5 hurricane moving all the way across the Pacific before being absorbed in a front near Japan! [abundance of EPAC equatorial SST heat content] This would also explain why we are seeing more EPAC storms. I am very curious to how the jetstreams will reallign from [last years into early this years] La Nina event, to an upcoming El Nino. I expect this to be a very active jet pattern for the next GRC. How that materalizes, only Gary knows..LOL., but I will add that the Earth requires transfer of energy to the poles, and if it doesn't happen enough during hurricane season, it will have to happen sometime. So..if this is plausible, then strong jet streams and energy coming up from the south at some point could make things much more active this season. Again, I am not Gary or even a meteorologist...but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. LOL ;-)
Haha... :) Thanks for the info! I certainly hope it is an exciting winter... KC is about due! I am sure Gary will weigh in with his opinion soon!
Posted by: Scott at September 8, 2006 12:35 PM
I just got back back home from a trip. I Wish to extend a hand of congradulation to the Hotest day winner know as Chris. Great job Chris. Congradulations. Well Now for the first one inch of Snow contest. This is a really hard one. It real hard to guess that far in advance because of the way snow producing storms move. Snow producing systems can move one inch or another which can move the snow eiether way by a 100 miles or so. You really dont know what amount of snow you will get untill the system is almost on top of you.
De Soto Kansas
Chris came in third. You came in second. GREAT JOB!
Posted by: Steve Newport at September 8, 2006 6:32 PM