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 September 22, 2006

Weather Pattern

Good evening,

I am on vacation beginning Saturday. Las Vegas here I come. I can't wait. I plan on making it into a relaxing vacation. When I get back I am expecting EVERYTHING in the weather pattern to have changed.

The evolution of our new unique pattern may begin as early as October 1st or so. But, I believe it is more like October 10th where the huge changes occur. The entire pattern is in chaotic transition right now. Look at the two maps below:

Click to enlarge (500 mb flow valid next Wednesday)

Click to enlarge (500 mb flow valid 10 days from now)

Try to track the upper level flow in the next two weeks. Everything is changing and different things again will start happening. Then between October 10th and November 10th the new pattern sets up and then we have to live with it for 10 months. So, everyone....please think positively. We need to help Mother Nature this year. We are capable of having an exciting pattern aren't we?

Have a great week. Jeff, Jamie, and Brett will be covering the bases. Speaking of baseball.....go Dodgers!


Posted by at September 22, 2006 6:03 PM


At the beginning of the 6 p.m. broadcast you mentioned something to the effect "...and what happened in Rolla?" Then during your multiple chances to show us, you didn't! We wanted to see the storm effects from the Rolla area. By the way, we knew, first hand, what happened! Our son shot the video for KY3 out of Springfield! They showed some, albeit short and incomplete, video on ky3.com, yet, we thought you received more! Heck, he chased the storm from Springfield all the way to St. James (just east of Rolla).
You sure did tease us! Maybe next time, he'll be there to catch the rotation...goodness knows he is trying!
Oh, have a good vacation in Las Vegas!
Mom and Dad,

I should have shown the thunderstorms down there during the regular weathercast. Jeff Penner was off and I had the radar skipped. I always blame Jeff, but I can't this time.


Posted by: Mom and Dad at September 22, 2006 6:42 PM

Vegas? Nice. Have a good one.


Posted by: Walk at September 22, 2006 9:49 PM

Chaos smaos. Your maps show my next trends. We just had the wierd shortwave, so on to the next big front..about 5-7 days later. Looking at your maps, I see it forming in the top map, and evident in the last one over the east coast. I will have to look a bit more closely for the low that sits over the Ohio valley that follows [attributed to the blocking over the NE], then about a week after that, we will have another wierd shortwave. I will call this the SMC [Scott Mini Cycle] that may fit into the GRC. Wait..we are in chaos, and this won't exist in about a week. We shall see.
We shall see Scott!

Posted by: Scott at September 22, 2006 11:07 PM

Have fun in Las Vegas!!! I have been there before and it is great. There is so much stuff to see and do there. If you like music and if you get a chance go see Blue Man Group they are fantastic. Have a great time in Las Vegas, and lets hope for an exciting weather pattern!!! :)
Have fun!!!,John

Thanks John!


Posted by: John Moon III at September 22, 2006 11:37 PM

This ridge in the west will make a comeback later on after the cold front next week. This looks to be influenced by El Nino. Western Canada continues to warm up because of the developing ridge, and the strong Pacific jet stream slamming the coast. This warms up the Canadian prairie provinces due to the downslope effect. By the way, the CPC is factoring in a moderate warm episode this winter for their forecast. I do not like the looks of that. Also, why do many warm episodes develop before the winter season begins? Thanks.


I STRONGLY believe that the pattern we are in now would be happening whether El Nino was devloping or not. It isn't because of El Nino. This is what I believe.

The real weather pattern for this next winter sets up in the next few weeks. There will be El Nino anomalies, but around Kansas City it almost means nothing when you look at the stats.


Posted by: Devin at September 23, 2006 2:08 PM


I am enjoying the informative information about this weather pattern. The transition period is always exciting, and often confuses the models. With your new upcoming GRC pattern this fall/winter,I am glad El Nino will not have much affect on the pattern! This is good news:) It must just be a small piece of the larger overall weather pattern. Unfortunatly many people associate El Nino with the 97-98 episode that was extremely strong and destructive. I am hoping for a great winter pattern like 92-93 for those that remember. Winter is also my favorite season!


Posted by: Devin at September 23, 2006 10:42 PM


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