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Cold morning and Halloween dogs

Good morning,

The wind chill factor has been as low as 17 degrees this morning with the northwest wind blowing. High pressure is settling over the area today and the winds should become light by this evening for trick or treating.

Click to enlarge (500 mb flow valid next Tuesday)

The jet stream is now strengthening. This trend will continue through January when the jet stream reaches its peak strength before weakening as spring approaches. Let's watch very closely where this increasing energy is distributed next week. It could get quite exciting, and if we are to have a real winter this year it better get exciting next week. I think it will.

Happy Halloween!

Breezy as a princess and Storm wearing her raincoat
Another picture of Breezy & Storm dressed up

New data came out rather interesting for next week! I will have complete coverage on the newscasts tonight. Breezy and Stormy may make a costume appearance on the 5 PM news.

Gary

Posted by at 7:14 AM | Comments (23)

Weather Pattern Theory Part 3

We are issuing our winter forecast, based on my weather pattern theory, on Thursday night November 9th.

The theory: The weather pattern sets up between October 10th and November 10th and then begins cycling. The pattern then continues until it falls apart sometime in late summer. This happens EVERY year.

So, here it is October 30th and the pattern is likely either set and cycling or very close to doing so, if you believe my theory anyway. How do we determine what the pattern is? Well, we have a system and it involves some scientific, but secretive techniques that I can’t disclose at this time. I spent hours this weekend going through the last 30 days or so. The weather pattern is very complex and involves many phases that amazingly will end up repeating over and over again.

The pattern that is setting up is quite strange. We haven’t quite put our finger on it yet and this is why we need another few days before we can even make our winter forecast. I have been asked over and over again the past two weeks what I think will happen this winter. I honestly answer, “I don’t know yet, please give me another few days�. We, literally, do not know yet, and even when we think we do know it is just our initial impression. Once the pattern begins repeating sometime in December many realizations occur as to what the weather pattern truly is. But, it is almost always close to our initial forecast.

This week could be our first dry week since February. There may be a chance of some rain between Thursday and Saturday as a wave comes through the west coast in a developing southern branch of the jet stream.

A cold front will move through by 7 PM with a strong northwest wind blowing overnight. The new data now comes in one hour earlier! Very exciting.

Have a great day. More later on.

Gary

Posted by at 9:28 AM | Comments (13)

Goodbye!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 79
LOW: 40

What a day today!! Do you believe how warm it was? Amazing. We should be into the 70s again Monday... although I don't think it will be AS warm as today... because some clouds will be moving in as the day goes on. We'll stick with our forecast high of 73 or so. A COLD FRONT will come through Monday night, and it brings a slight (and I mean slight) chance of a few spotty showers. Then HALLOWEEN looks much colder. Highs near 50... and TRICK-OR-TREAT temperatures ranging from 40 to 45 degrees with a Northwest wind!

Well... as you may know... today is my last day at KSHB! We are moving back to my hometown in Ohio tomorrow! It was an extremely tough decision to leave... as I really love KSHB and Kansas City. But to quote my favorite movie, "There's no place like home..." :) I will be working at the NBC station in Dayton, Ohio... tune in if you're ever passing through!

Anyway, I want to thank everyone for the nice comments you have been sending me the past several days. It is wonderful-- the relationships we have all built on the blog! As I have said, I will continue to post here... only under the "comments" section, like all of you! Look for me there, and let's have some fun this winter tracking the GRC!! :)

I wanted to leave you with some pictures of Mags that we took today. It was soooo nice outside... she LOVES this kind of weather! It was really funny when we took her out, she just lay down, right in the leaves and looked up at the bright blue sky. When I told her it was time to go back in, she rolled over on her back and just lay there... legs sticking right up in the air... as if she was saying, "I'm in heaven... don't make me go in YET!"

Thank you again, for everything!
Jamie

Posted by at 1:57 PM | Comments (12)

Warm Weekend Weather!

Good morning, Bloggers!

Well after several very GRAY days across the area... we are finally in for some SUNNY weather! This weekend looks absolutely fantastic! Expect mostly sunny skies both days (today we may fight some high clouds for a little, though). And temperatures that will feel nice and comfortable... mid-to-upper 60s today, and mid-upper 70s on Sunday!!!

Here is a look at that warm air building our way... on the 850mb chart (5,000 feet up):

Click to enlarge

So enjoy the warmer weather!! Last weekend, I got to go to the Chiefs game with Gary... and it was chilly. But THIS weekend... WOW!! Enjoy a nice warm game at Aarowhead if you are heading out!

Our next chance of rain (slim) comes Monday night with a cold front... otherwise... we're in for a break in any rainfall!
Have a good one!
Jamie

Posted by at 6:07 AM | Comments (8)

Comma head makes it to I-70 by midnight

It is almost midnight and you can see the comma head rain making it to us as expected. Isn't this exciting, although many of you may be sleeping. I never let it go. The models have a hard time with these northern extensions of the rainfall around upper lows. We kept it in the forecast and now there is lightning and thunder as well. Very exciting! There is a northern edge, but it made it about as far north as we thought it would. It is still growing and moving north, but I expect it to stall on its northward movement by around 2 AM. This should get it to about 10-25 miles north of I-70.

Click to enlarge (growing area of rain just before midnight)

Now, the weekend weather looks great. I will have part 3 of my weather pattern theory on Monday.

Some two day rainfall totals (wow, and some of you thought we would be missed):

Lawrence: 1.84" (1.07" last night)
Lee's Summit: 1.61" ((0.69" last night)
Overland Park: 1.54" (0.99" last night)
KCI Airport: 1.15" (0.46" last night)
St. Joseph: 1.01" (0.01" last night)

Gary

Posted by at 11:32 PM | Comments (25)

Jamie Jarosik and will we get into the comma head?

Jamie Jarosik has decided to move back to her home town. Her last day will be this Sunday night. We tried to convince her to stay here in Kansas City, but she and her husband Ken decided to be closer to family and there is a great opportunity waiting for her in Dayton. Jamie was at KSHB for two years. She strengthened our weather department and it is very sad to have her leave, but we are excited for her new opportunity. Please leave her some kind words as you blog the next few days.

Tonight’s storm is rather strange. The models continue to insist that the comma head will be south of Kansas City. Maybe it will, but I am not going to give in until I see it develop this evening as I still feel we will get in on the rain overnight. I guess it could develop south of us, but a week or so ago the models did something similar and we had a nice rain. Hopefully the models are making a mistake again, but everyone of them has this missing us tonight. Then, a huge warm up is likely by Sunday.

I will have part 3 of my weather pattern theory on Monday. We continue to analyze the data. A very complex weather pattern is setting up, so more on Monday.

Gary

Posted by at 10:28 AM | Comments (38)

A storm in two parts

Good afternoon,

I am on my way into work to track this storm. It is coming through in two parts. Part one, as seen clearly on the 15z RUC model, comes through us tonight. Part two will be the upper low Thursday night.

Click to enlarge (Ruc model valid at 10 PM tonight)

The X near Emporia is the vort max, negatively tilted and it should help create a nice area of rain, some heavy, possibly even a thunderstorm this evening. This combining with a strengthening warm front being induced by the main upper low.

Let's see if ESP radar lights up this evening. Have a great day!

Gary

Posted by at 12:48 PM | Comments (10)

A storm approaches and some pictures

Click to enlarge (Stormy, Breezy & I getting ready to go on the show)

Click to enlarge (Being interviewed with dogs)

Click to enlarge (Breezy and Stormy doing some of their tricks)

The above pictures from Vesper Hall in Blue Springs on Tuesday

Good morning everyone,

Today is Stormy's 6th birthday......Happy Birthday Stormy! And how appropriate, a storm is heading this way on Stormy's big day. There is a trend for the storm to dig a bit further south so let's look at the models today and see if this trend continues. I still feel that it will take a slightly further north track and we will be in the heavy rain Thursday night. There is also a disturbance heading our way this morning. You can see it on satellite over New Mexico. If it holds together, and it still is, then rain will begin developing by this afternoon just as I showed last night on the air, but the disturbance must hold together. I also think this will happen as well. The GFS has over 2 inches of rain, while the NAM has us on the edge of 1/2 inch of rain. If the upper level low goes south of Oklahoma City then the lower amount is likely. If it tracks closer to the Kansas/Oklahoma border then the 2 inches or more scenario could pan out.

Much more later today. Have a great day!

Gary

Posted by at 7:33 AM | Comments (13)

Nice and strong developing storm

Click to enlarge (500 mb flow valid Thursday evening)

Not much time this morning as I am on my way to Blue Springs to be on a Johnny Carson Birthday celebration show in front of 150 senior citizens. I am bringing the dogs so hopefully they will do some tricks.

The above map shows the continued trend of slowing down and strengthening the upper level storm system. Digging storms like this one often end up slower, stronger, and further west than previous models. We just haven't had a chance to "play" with any of these storms in a long time. It isn't fun talking about them when they aren't affecting you. Well, this one is going to in a big way. We will very likely have at least 1 inch of rain from this system before it ends. There is NOT enough cold air for any chance of snow at all from this system.

More later, must be on my way. Watch the shows tonight as we will make it an educational and informative weathercast. More on the weather pattern theory later in the week.

Gary

Posted by at 10:17 AM | Comments (13)

A storm approaches

Good afternoon everyone,

The weather pattern continues to develop and I have been much more encouraged during the past few days. And, now a storm approaches bringing a chance of a significant precipitation event Wednesday night through early Friday.

Click to enlarge (500 mb flow valid Thursday evening)

Click to enlarge (Surface forecast for Thursday evening)

The above two maps show the developing storm for Thursday. Will it be cold enough to snow? Probably not as warm moist air could get wrapped around the storm. Where will the storm track and how strong will it be? If it is very strong it may be cold enough for some snow near the center of the upper low. We will know a lot more as it gets closer. If it does dig in to our west then we will get another nice rain.

Gary

Gary

Posted by at 4:17 PM | Comments (17)

October Surprise (10 years ago today)

This is the 500 mb flow at 7 AM October 22, 1996

Click to enlarge (shows the surface at 7 AM October 22, 1996)

It was 10 years ago this morning that one of the most dramatic weather events occurred in Kansas City history. An upper level storm was very strong and intensifying as it moved into south central Kansas. Very cold and dry air was located over the Dakotas moving into Nebraska. This was a key player in this surprise snowstorm. As the surface low deepened over Missouri the cold air was drawn in and we had perfect conditions to create just enough cold air for snow to begin falling. This was a powerful storm and we had over 2 inches of rain before any snowflake fell.

I was forecasting rain changing to a few snowflakes as the storm ended. But, as the final comma head developed around the upper low it was all snow. And the trees came tumbling down as they were full, just like they are today. By 10 AM I was the first in Kansas City to predict that we would see 1 to 3 inches of snow during the afternoon. By noon I had updated it to 4 to 6 inches and 6 inches ended up falling while temperatures bottomed out at 32 degrees, our first freeze that year. It was 57 degrees for a high the day before, 57 degrees the day after, but a major snowstorm in the middle.

Now, you know my theory. Is it any surprise that on November 30th, 1996 a similar storm produced 6 to 8 inches of snow again just 39 days after the October Surprise. I was at the beginning of developing my thoughts on the theory at that time.

For this to happen again at this time of year you would need similar conditions. It would take the perfect combination and this is why even though some of the computer models had some runs showing a chance of snow I DID NOT mention it for a reason. It is very difficult in October to have such a storm to produce snow. It is NOT unusual for a few snowflakes to come down at the tail end of a storm in October and this happens about 5 out of every 10 years. It almost happened yesterday.

Have a great day! Let me know how you remember that day, if you do? I am going to the Chiefs game with Jamie and her husband. It is their one year anniversary today. Go Chiefs. I will come home and get ready for work as I am doing the 10 PM show tonight.

Gary

Posted by at 8:52 AM | Comments (18)

Falling Temps

Good morning!

Right on cue... rain and colder temperatures for today. After hitting a high of 71 degrees yesterday... we have likely already hit today's high. A cold front is moving through... and temperatures will FALL during the afternoon hours. We'll also experience gusty northwest winds... so it will be quite a RAW day.

Here is a look at this morning's 500mb flow... you can see the upper level disturbance that is causing the rain:

Click to enlarge

As long as that wave is to our west... we will continue the chance of rain. The main disturbance should be through later this afternoon... so eventually the rain chances will come to an end. You can see on Sunday, the wave is definitely east of us... so we will be DRY for the Chiefs/Chargers game:

Click to enlarge

BUT notice we are still in the TROUGH... so that means cooler temperatures will continue. Sunday's highs should be in the upper 40s, with the brisk northwest wind continuing! Bundle up if you're heading to Aarowhead!!

Have a great day!
Jamie

Posted by at 8:30 AM | Comments (14)

A Saturday storm system!

Good evening everyone!

The latest data is trickling in and we continue to see our 100% chance of rain on Saturday, this after it did hit our forecast high of 70 degrees from last nights 10 PM newscast.

The storm is intensifying and I am now thinking that over an inch of rain is likely in a few spots. I hope it doesn't ruin your Saturday plans.

On the horizon is more exciting weather. Is this amazing or what? Hopefully these trends will continue.

Have a great weekend. I only had 3 to 4 hours of sleep four nights in a row so I plan on catching up this weekend even though I am working Sunday night.

Gary

Posted by at 9:10 PM | Comments (4)

A great Friday, but then what?

Good morning,

It looks like a great Friday. Expect mostly sunny conditions today and with a southwest wind it could get close to 70 degrees this afternoon.

A storm approaches from the west tonight, but it is rather strange. The vorticity is sort of channelled through the upper level flow. If it is a bit more organized then it will rain a few hours Saturday, but if it is less organized then it won't rain much. I lean towards the more organized solution. After the new data comes out this morning I will make a more confident forecast.

I will update this entry after around 11 AM.

Here is the 11 AM update: New data confirms our 100% chance of rain Saturday

Click to enlarge (NAM forecast 700 mb flow valid 7 AM Sat)

The above map shows the 700 mb flow, around 10,000 feet up. The green shading is the relative humidity forecast through a large layer of the lower atmosphere. So, when it is dark green then it is saturated. The red lines show where the air is forecast to be rising. Notice that the Kansas City area is near the center of rising motion by morning as the upper level system approaches.

Click to enlarge (NAM forecast surface valid 1 PM Saturday)

This map shows the suface forecast for Saturday at 1 PM. The blue dotted line is the 540 thickness line. This is the 50/50 line for snow prediction. If you are below 540 thickness it usually snows. The cold air is arriving about the time the rain is shutting down. If the upper level storm is a little slower, stronger and further south then we could see our first snowflakes or some sleet Saturday afternoon.

Gary

Posted by at 7:56 AM | Comments (14)

Saturday storm and the evolving pattern

Click to enlarge (500 mb flow valid Thursday 7 PM)

Click to enlarge (500 mb flow valid Firday 7 PM)

Click to enlarge (500 mb flow valid Saturday 7 PM)

Good morning,

The above series of maps shows the weather pattern forecasted by last nights GFS model. There is a disturbance developing as it moved through an eastern Pacific upper level ridge and now is likely going to dig into the United States. The second map shows it strengthening a bit and about to round the corner. And, the third map shows a piece that has broken off and is moving through Kansas and Missouri Saturday evening. If this piece breaks off like that then rain is likely while the colder air moves in. There could even be some sleet mixed in. And, a few snowflakes would not be out of the question, especially up north in southern Iowa. Depending on how this evolves we could have anywhere from a few sprinkles to a four hour band of precipitation. I lean towards somewhere in the middle. I doubt this system could do more than this. As the series of disturbances aloft move by on Sunday colder air will settle in for the Chiefs on Sunday.

Our winter forecast will be unveiled on November 9th at 10 PM. The weather pattern continues to evolve and one minute it looks exciting and then the next minute it is scary (not so exciting). I really don't have a feel yet for what may happen. I will have part 3 of my weather pattern theory by early next week. Maybe I will look at last year's pattern and show you some evidence of the 60 to 62 day cycle we were in. But, I doubt I will do it because it would just be too long. I should have a little talk about the pattern at our studios some night for you bloggers shouldn't I?

Have a great day. The sun should be out soon.

Gary

Posted by at 6:55 AM | Comments (32)

Falling temperatures this morning

Good morning,

A cold front moved through the entire area by 6 AM and temperatures are falling. It is in the 30s from north central Kansas into Nebraska. It could drop that far today but I expect it to at least fall to 43 degrees in the next few hours. There is some light rain or drizzle, but nothing really significant is expected today as the jet stream is right overhead. We really aren't in the quadrant for any lifting.

The weather pattern continues to evolve. By Saturday a deepening trough will bring another cold front our way. There is some potential for a few snowflakes across parts of Missouri Saturday night, but just like today we aren't in the right position to have any significant precipitation so the chance is small. Let's see how this looks later today. It is looking a bit different every few hours.

Gary

Posted by at 6:38 AM | Comments (12)

Something to watch

Happy Tuesday!

The next few days and beyond are very tricky. We start with today. Will the sky clear? Probably not. This is no surprise to me, but I may have made the wrong call last night by going for 74 degrees and the clouds breaking up. It may still happen. Believe it or not, forecasting cloud cover is more difficult than forecasting snow.

Now, look below at the two maps.

Click to enlarge (500 mb flow, 18,000 feet up, valid Wednesday at 7 PM)

Click to enlarge (Surface valid Thursday at 7 PM)

The NAM (WRF) model has been trending towards us having a storm on Thursday. On the upper level map can you see the deepening of the flow just south of 4 corners. An upper low is trying to develop and as a result it is causing the surface flow to create a weakening in the surface ridge and a weak storm forms over Missouri by Thursday. If this trend continues then it will be cloudy Thursday with rain around. I am leaning heavily in this direction since this is related to what happened last night. If you missed it an organized area of rain developed right over and just east of Kansas City during the evening. The Thursday system is similar to this and I always buy a solution that is similar to something that just happened already. Now, a little stronger and we will have an exciting day Thursday. A little weaker and then there is nothing but a few clouds. So, let's watch the trends. Can you imagine if it were cold enough to snow. We would be talking about accumulations or sunshine. We don't have to be concerned with this scenario yet. But soon? The GFS just came out and doesn't quite do it and thus there would be no chance of that Thursday storm if you believe this model. We will see how the new data trends this afternoon.

Then there are big challenges this weekend and in the developing pattern. It is getting interesting.

Have a great day. I will try to answer any questions you may have later today. Stormy and I are going to a school today. I doubt I will bring Breezy as she has a phobia over the kids.

Gary

Posted by at 10:25 AM | Comments (12)

Rain continues this evening

Good evening,

Rain continues to fall this evening as the main upper level system is passing through. I am not surprised at all. In the past year things like this just didn't happen. It is only light rain, but it is somewhat exciting.

The next challenge is Tuesday's high. If the sun breaks out by 11 AM then I think 78 degrees is possible. I may back off on the 10 PM newscast tonight depending on when we think it will clear. I may just stick to it.

Have a great evening.

Gary

Posted by at 8:22 PM | Comments (4)

Weather Pattern Theory Part 2

Good morning,

We had some nice rain (see Jamie’s blog entries from the weekend). This first storm will pass by late this afternoon and the rain will shut off. The second storm is strange and will bring a strong cold front through and we will be talking about it the next two days during our morning show, 5, 6 and 10 PM on NBC ACTION NEWS. Today, I want to concentrate on the weather pattern.

The paragraph below is an excerpt from a November, 2005 blog entry. Remember my theory states that a unique weather pattern sets up between October 10th and November 10th and then begins cycling. The pattern continues to cycle over and over for months before it finally dies out in late summer. So, if you are in a bad pattern then you are doomed to have boring weather for a long time. As you can see below we knew early on that it was going to be a long year of not much:

November 7, 2005:
The weather pattern for the next 6 to 10 months is likely now set. And, it doesn't look good. If you like stormy weather this is about as bad as it gets, but perhaps there is some hope. The hope lies in the fact that I believe that this is a unique pattern, in other words it has never happened before. There are some characteristics to this new pattern that could very well end up in an exciting set up for storm systems. I am not sure what those pattern set ups will look like. What we do know is there is one very predominant feature in the Gulf of Alaska/northern Pacific Ocean and across Alaska. This is a deep trough that continuously regenerates week after week.

Once again, the above paragraph is from last November. We had such a bad pattern last year where storm systems just didn’t want to be here. They would weaken through what I call a long term long wave ridge. Fortunately that pattern ended sometime in August. Where will these "long term long wave" troughs and ridges set up?

This year’s weather pattern continues to evolve. I don’t believe it is established yet, and the cycle has likely not even begun. Last week the computer models were predicting something completely different than they are predicting this week. Remember it isn’t what the computer says may happen, but what actually happens that counts. The weather pattern is evolving right before our eyes. Last week I was very excited about the developing pattern, and right now I am not so sure, but it does appear that it will be much better than what we have been experiencing.

We are having a misty morning. A steady light rain or heavy mist has been falling. We will have more on the mid week cold front/storm later on. Have a fantastic start to your week.

Gary

Posted by at 7:17 AM | Comments (17)

Afternoon Update

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 57
LOW: 48

Here is an updated rainfall total list... thanks to those of you who have commented your totals, as well:

KCI: .78"
DOWNTOWN: 1.17"
OLATHE: .69"
TOPEKA: .43"
LAWRENCE: .95"
EMPORIA: .15"
ST. JOSEPH: 1.01"
CHILLICOTHE: .33"
KNOBNOSTER: .15"

Our break in the rain should come to an end this evening... as some LIGHT rain moves in from the southwest. Then, the rain should pick up in intensity late this evening and overnight. It looks like the heaviest rain will fall on the southern and easterm parts of the viewing area... but as there is nothing out there right NOW... we have to wait and see where the rain sets up. Gary is in to do the late news tonight (we'll be on after Sunday Night Football)... and I am sure he will have an update for you!

Enjoy this gray fall afternoon!
Jamie

Posted by at 3:32 PM | Comments (2)

Raaaaaaiiiin!

Good morning!

Well, good news... we are picking up some much-needed rain over the area this morning. And we'll continue to see the rain on and off today through tomorrow. There may be a pretty good dry period that works in this afternoon, before it picks up again. But these things are almost impossible to time out... so the chance is broad-brushed throughout the day.

So far this morning... (as of 7:30am)... here are some numbers:

KCI: .25"
DOWNTOWN: .26"
OLATHE: .20"
TOPEKA: .43"
LAWRENCE: .60"
EMPORIA: .12"
ST. JOSEPH: .08"

With the rain and clouds around... our highs today and tomorrow will struggle to get into the 60s. Upper 50s look about right. Then a break in the rain for Tuesday, which looks like a rather NICE DAY!!!! We should see some sunshine and highs back into the 70s. The NEXT storm is due in on Wedensday... bringing cooler temperatures and another rain chance.

I will update later today with new rainfall totals! Send 'em in... if you got 'em!!
Have a good one,
Jamie

Posted by at 7:23 AM | Comments (10)

Last COLD Morning... and Weekend Changes

Goooood Morning, everyone!

This should be our last COLD morning for awhile! Once again, we have dropped into the 20s and 30s around the area... but as a storm approaches, we'll begin to see a warm-up take hold. For today... expect plenty of sunshine, and highs in the mid-to-upper 60s. Overnight, clouds will begin to increase ahead of our next storm... the clouds and southerly winds should hold us up in the 40s.

Here is a look AT that storm on this morning's satellite image... it's over the Southwestern US:

Click to see loop

All thinking is the same as yesterday (see Gary's blog). It's a tough forecast... but we think we should at least get SOME rain around here! (That would be Sunday and Monday for the rain chances) And we desprately NEED the rain. Here are our deficits for the month and for the year:

FOR OCTOBER: -1.28"
FOR 2006: -8.89"

So the chance is coming... but today looks fabulous... I hope you get to enjoy it!!
Jamie

Posted by at 6:26 AM | Comments (8)

We did it! Our first freeze!

Good Friday evening!

The official low dropped to 31 degrees this morning at KCI making today our first freeze, 28 days earlier than last year, but it was close.

A storm is spinning near the Southern California coast. It will begin moving east tonight. As the storm approaches moisture is going to be drawn northward from the Gulf of Mexico and this moisture feed will continue until the "kicker" storm digs into the west and finally moves through around Wednesday. When this second storm moves through we should have a lot of moisture available for some thunderstorms around mid week. And, that second storm will likely create a rather strong cold front.

The upper low that will eject out is being handled very poorly by the models. I don't have a good feel on it yet, thus the term "cut off low, weatherman's woe", or "weatherperson's woe" in respect of all the female weather people. Most models take this upper level storm well south of Kansas City. As it approaches, and even if it goes well to the south, we will likely have at least a nice band of lifting move by. This lifting should create an area of rain on Sunday. There is still some hope that the upper low ejects harder to the north (this is what I will be looking for in the new data) and then we could get a lot of rain. This solution is not supported by any model at this moment and until it starts moving I can't go for it either, but we are still expecting rain on Sunday.

Have a great weekend!

New data is arriving and there is a gradual trend towards a much wetter solution. But, let's see how it sets up. Sunday into Monday could be exciting if this trend continues.

Gary and the NBC Action Weather Team

Posted by at 4:55 PM

The weather pattern and our next storm

Good afternoon everyone,

We will very likely have our first freeze tonight. This is almost one month before last years November 10th first freeze. The weather pattern continues to evolve right before our eyes and I will have a part 2 to my weather pattern theory coming up on Monday. We will have our special winter forecast unveiled on November 9th or so on the 10 PM newscast. There is a lot of studying to do before we are ready for our winter forecast, but we continue to like what we are seeing.

Our next storm, or perhaps a series of storm systems, is due in next week. The NAM has all kinds of rain here by 84 hours on Sunday, but it is ejecting the cut off low too fast. Below is the 96 hour GFS model from this morning at 500 mb. You can see the upper low over Arizona ejecting out. Will it take path #1 or path #2. Path #1 would take the storm south of us and limit our chance of rain. Path #2 would really hit us hard. The GFS and most other models are taking that path #1 scenario, but I lean towards the path #2 at this moment.

Click to enlarge 500 mb flow valid Monday morning

There is a kicker. A real kicker. What is a kicker? It is a strong enough wave to the west or northwest that will kick out the downstream storm. The past couple of years the weather pattern has been so bad that the kickers have been odd. The best kickers not only kick out the storm, but replace it with an even stronger storm system. This may be happening next week and this is why we could have a second and a third storm coming up all in a row.

Gary

Posted by at 12:00 PM | Comments (23)

Everything is changing

Good morning,

The weather pattern is changing. It is rather amazing, but will it be a good change? We will know within three to four weeks. Every computer model run provides a widely different solution right now. It isn't what the computer says, but what actually happens that counts so we must be patient as the winter weather pattern sets up. We can't jump to any conclusions this early. This is why I state in my theory that the weather pattern sets up between October 10th and November 10th. It is only October 11th.

In the front page of the Kansas City Star there is a forecast for the mild winter almost entirely based on the fact that a weak El Nino has started. You probably know how I feel about this ridiculous forecast. If you believe in my theory then there is just no way to issue a reliable winter forecast this early. Maybe it will be a mild winter, but at the same time maybe it won't. It completely depends on how the weather pattern develops in the next few weeks. It has NOT been determined yet.

Yesterday ended up rather nice with the rainfall widespread. I know it took a while before the rain picked up. In the end, though, it produced some nice rainfall:

Grain Valley: 0.74"
Overland Park: 0.67"
Lee's Summit: 0.62"
Olathe: 0.58"
Gardner: 0.52"
Downtown: 0.45"
Chillicothe: 0.43"
KCI Airport: 0.40"
St. Joseph: 0.22"

A cold front is still north of Omaha, NE as of 7 AM. It is now moving fast and will rapidly move through our region by early this afternoon. The winds will pick up out of the north or northwest at 20 -30 mph once the front moves by. It will stay dry as it passes. Will we see a freeze tonight? It will be close but the air will not settle into the lower elevations with a northwest wind continuing to blow. The better chance of a widespread freeze could come on Friday morning.

We will be tracking a possible storm for early next week later on. Have a great day!

Gary

Posted by at 6:48 AM | Comments (16)

Forecast accuracy and a possible freeze

Good morning,

A storm is moving our way this morning. The upper level disturbance will likely track just north of Kansas City tonight. A weak surface low will be generated over Oklahoma this afternoon and some additional Gulf of Mexico moisture may get pulled into this system. We could end up with a period of heavier steady rainfall later this afternoon and evening as these ingredients come together. There is even a slight chance of an embedded thunderstorm and close to 1 inch of rain is possible by 10 PM tonight. I am hoping everyone gets at least 1/2 inch.

We will then concentrate on the strong Canadian cold front moving through on Wednesday morning. Most of the air asscociated with this will be aloft. We will likely see temperatures drop to near freezing Thursday and Friday morning. But, as you can see on the map below we may still have a westerly wind Friday morning as the air rotates around the strong Great Lakes surface low. Cold air would not be allowed to settle into the lower areas with the air mixing. Let's see how it looks tomorrow.

Click to enlarge (surface map forecast for Friday morning)

Forecast accuracy: There is a huge difference between our forecast and the others in Kansas City. Weatherate.com is a company that began tracking television stations weather forecasts years ago. We had no idea that this company existed until they informed us that we were the most accurate television station in Kansas City and that it wasn't even close. The forecasts for the next four days are used. They check the highs and lows, precipitation, snow amounts, wind, fog, and even severe weather. The forecasts are weighted where day 2 counts only 1/2 as much as day 1. Day 3 is weighted less than day 2 and so on. It is the best system I have ever seen for deciding which forecast is the most accurate. The following are the latest numbers for this year through last week. A lead of .5 is considered very large. The leading station in most markets is usually leading by about .05 to .20 on average (so our lead, as seen below, is huge). This is a message we are trying to get out to Kansas City that there is a huge difference when it comes to weather forecasting. I know most of our viewers know this, but it would be nice to get the message out to the viewers of other stations who think that weather forecasts are always wrong. There is a difference, and this is the only way we know of getting the message out besides having the most accurate forecast on the air every night.

Weatherate.com latest standings (the lower the number the better the forecast) These are the facts!

1st Place station: KSHB-TV (NBC Action News): 6.00

2nd place station: 6.87

3rd place station: 6.95

Last place station: 7.21
(the station I used to work for years ago)

NBC Action News (KSHB-TV) has been the #1 station (forcecasting accuracy) for four years in a row!

The weather pattern continues to be in major transition and I will have a part 2 to my weather pattern theory and what we are seeing soon. Have a great day!

Gary

Posted by at 6:30 AM | Comments (36)

Changing weather pattern and snowflake contest

Good morning and welcome to the changing weather pattern,

This morning we continue to see the evolution of a brand new weather pattern. It is exciting and holds potential for ending our year of frustration. Below is the 500 mb forecast for early Tuesday morning. There is a split flow with us in the southern branch and a wave ejecting out into Kansas. As this wave approaches warm advection will develop and create lift through the atmostphere allowing us to have widespread rainfall Tuesday afternoon and evening. I am hoping for at least a half an inch, but it could be less. Also noticeable on the 500 mb map is the high amplitude ridge near the west coast of Canada and the big upper low/trough forming downstream over Canada dropping into the United States. This will bring a strong cold front through us Wednesday afternoon and we may have our first freeze Thursday or Friday morning.

Click to enlarge

Our snowflake contest will begin tonight. You can NOT enter through the Blog. Either you mail in your entry, or go to our website and enter through the snowflake contest entry form. You are allowed one entry per email address. To win the contest you must come closest to predicting our first one inch of snow as measured by one of the NBC Action News meteorologists at our studios location. You provide the exact time which will separate you from everyone else. We will have some great prizes for first and second place.

Have a great day and good luck! The snowflake contest should be on our website by this afternoon.

Gary

Posted by at 8:01 AM | Comments (11)

CHANGES are coming!

Today is our last WARM day for awhile. We should see highs again near the 80 degree mark... with sunshine and high clouds. But then things change as a cold front comes through tonight! The front will come through dry... but will bring in considerable cloud cover for Monday. The winds will also shift... and Monday's highs should be in the mid-60s.

Then, an upper level wave will swing through Tuesday into early Wednesday... bringing us a pretty good shot of some rainfall. See the blog from yesterday... that scenario is looking more and more likely!

Now for the colder END to our week! YES it's going to be COLDER. But probably not AS cold as the GFS is showing:

Click to enlarge

This particular model has a cold bias... so we will trend it down a bit... but we could still see the first FREEZE of the season by the end of the week. The average first freeze is October 22nd... so we will probably be a little ahead of schedule this year!

I brought Mags into work with me this morning... she just LOVES coming to the station! I can't really figure out why... but if I could bottle her enthusiasm for coming to work... I would be a VERY wealthy lady. ;) Here is a recent picture of the little pup... who is not so little anymore:

And here is another picture... don't know who's dog this is... but I just posted it because it's so darn CUTE:

Now, that's a weather dog if I ever saw one! :) Enjoy the rest of the weekend!
Jamie

Posted by at 8:40 AM | Comments (10)

Great Weekend!

Hello... what a great weekend forecast we have for all the activities going on around town! After a cool start in the 50s this morning... Saturday afternoon looks spectacular... with highs in the lower-to-mid 80s!

And we can expect a repeat performance on Sunday, thanks to the upper ridge that is still anchored right over us. It's right in the middle of a cut-off low to the east and a trough to the west:

Click to enlarge

We are VERY dry at the surface... so it's going to be difficult to get rain to fall here in Kansas City. There is a COLD FRONT set to come through Sunday night. That will drop our temperatures... but it looks like it will come through dry. Then as pieces of energy come in behind that front... we could see some light rain Tuesday night into Wednesday. And we need it!! We are about 8.5" below average for the year, and going on 1" below average for the month ALREADY!! Here is a look at the Tue/Wed chilly and rainy scenario:

Click to enlarge

So after this weekend... MUCH more like FALL!!

Today, the National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill is having an open house... open to anyone that wants to come down and see their facility! It's really easy to get to... and worth the trip! Here is in the info:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL OPEN HOUSE
**10 AM to 3 PM TODAY!!!!!!**
1807 N. 7 Highway
6 miles south of Highway 50... along Missouri Route 7

Enjoy the day!
Jamie

Posted by at 6:58 AM | Comments (9)

Weather pattern theory 2006 Part 1

Weather pattern theory 2006 part 1:

So, what is my weather pattern theory? How does it help us and what have we learned?

The theory: A unique weather pattern sets up every year between October 10th and November 10th. After the pattern sets up it begins cycling and this cycling doesn’t end until sometime in late summer as the pattern then goes through chaotic transition into the next year’s pattern. The cycle is very difficult to determine until the weather pattern has completed its first cycle. Once the first cycle is completed then it begins again and repeats over and over. It could be 60 to 62 days like last year, 73 to 77 days like two years ago, or 54 days like three years ago. It was only a 34 to 39 day cycle in 2002-2003. So, it often takes until December or later to figure out what the pattern truly is and how long the cycle lasts.

I have not determined what creates this weather pattern each year but I have been studying it since the 1980s and it happens every year without question. It is not just a unique pattern that sets up, but characteristics of individual features within the pattern will be unique to that year and also repeat over and over again; even some minute details like vorticity patterns, the way lows and highs are oriented, how storm systems move in and out of each region exist and will have characteristics that are unique to that years pattern.

So, we are almost to the critical time of the year where this pattern begins, shows up, evolves. I believe that there is no way, before November, to tell what the pattern will be since it doesn’t form until the critical month of October 10th to November 10th. So, any forecast that you have heard for the winter will have very little chance of being correct until after this pattern sets up. Seasonal forecasts that come out have shown to be the least accurate when issued before November and this goes hand and hand with my theory. There is a way to determine where the major features will be by early November or so, but we won't know the cycle until weeks or months later. But, once we know then this is when we have a huge advantage over other meteorologists in predicting storm systems from then on until the pattern dies. Last year we were able to correctly predict our February cold wave when up until a couple of days before most other forecasts had no idea it was coming! So, there are advantages, but it can also be quite frustrating as you know it should all line up and it eventually does return as expected over and over again. I hope all of this makes sense.

El Nino, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.html the warming of the tropical Pacific waters near the equator, has been growing slowly over the past few months and will likely influence the weather pattern. I have no problem with a forecast for the up coming winter using the history of previous El Nino’s or La Nina’s. These and other ocean temperature anomalies certainly influence the weather pattern, but I do NOT believe that they are a major player in the weather pattern’s creation, just an influence.

The last two GFS runs are beginning to show the massive changing weather pattern. It is a bit early to say that it is happening now, but it is October 5th. So any day now. The pattern that we have been in will be OVER soon. And, I just don't know how it can be a worse pattern. There is a very high likelyhood that we will have a more exciting year ahead. So, think positive.

Gary

Posted by at 8:13 AM | Comments (23)

Dry cold front

It is hard to imagine us going from three days in the mid 90s; setting three records in a row which is very hard to do; and to end up with a temperature drop of 30 degrees, then to have not even a drop of rain. This is almost impossible, especially in October. And, this tells you how bad our weather pattern is at this moment. Fortunately there should be some huge changes during the next few weeks. But to what? We will know a lot more soon.

Today's cloud cover will be stubborn to move out so we should enjoy a day in the 60s.

Gary

Posted by at 11:41 AM | Comments (14)

Hot here and in Las Vegas

Good morning,

I had a great time in Las Vegas and I actually won at blackjack. The Mr. Olympia competition was held last weekend and Jay Cutler won Mr. Olympia ending the 8 year reign of Ronnie Coleman. I try to go out to Vegas for this weekend to get motivated. There was a fitness expo that went on Friday and Saturday with all kinds of ideas on how to stay in great shape. It can also be discouraging when you take a picture next to someone with 23 inch arms. The picture below shows me comparing biceps. I lose big time.

Click to enlarge (Picture taken at the Mr. Olympia fitness expo in Las Vegas)

The weather in Vegas was dry and rather hot. I stayed at Mandalay Bay which has a great wave pool so the weather was perfect for swimming. Below, is a picture from my room. The clouds at sunset on my first night there are not clouds at all. That is smoke from a California fire.

Click to enlarge (smokey sunset in Las Vegas)

The weather pattern continues to be a dry one. There is hope on the horizon as the weather pattern is in massive transition. Try not to be discouraged yet. The weather pattern for fall and winter hasn't set up yet. I believe it will during the next 4 to 5 weeks so the critical time is arriving. More on my theory and the pattern later this week. In the mean time a cold front will move through early Wednesday. There is a chance of some rain early in the morning, but I doubt it would be much at all.

Rainfall this year: 23.14
Average by Oct. 3rd: 30.99 (-7.85)
Rainfall by this time last year: 39.47

Have a great day!

Gary

Posted by at 6:36 AM | Comments (14)

Three Things to Monitor

#1: A cold front (map 1) will be moving through Wednesday morning, breaking our incredible October heat wave. By the way we set records Sunday & Monday. It was 94 (Record 92 in 1976 & 2002) Sunday & 95 (Record 94 in 1963) Monday! We are going 95 on Tuesday. This will break another record set in 1954 of 93.

#2: It appears the hot weather will make one more return for Friday & Saturday as our current summerlike ridge builds back in (map 2).

#3: There are growing signs of a change for early next week (map 3). A trough now in the western USA is forecasted to move slowly east into the Plains. This trough + a cold front coming in from the north may interact with our very warm & humid airmass. This should give us at least 1-2 days with good rain chances Next Sunday through Tuesday. There are still questions with this change. We will be following this throughout the week.

Map 1, Click to Enlarge

The light blue shade is winds of 15 to 25 knots. In this case they will be blowing from the north, knocking our rare October heat to the south.

Map 2, Click to Enlarge

Map 3, Click to Enlarge

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Posted by at 9:35 PM | Comments (4)

Hot in Oct

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 94.... A NEW RECORD HIGH!
LOW: 56

Ok... so remember a few days ago when I posted the record highs for today and Monday? And then I said, "I don't think we'll set any records... but we will be close..." Well we DID set a record high for today! The old record was 92 degrees, set back in 1976, and tied in 2002.

We technically COULD do it again tomorrow... the record is 94 degrees... and we will be close again. I am shooting for 92... but some places could see mid-90s. The 90s continue on Tuesday, before things will cool down a bit. We should be near 80 degrees in KC for Wednesday and Thursday as a cold front moves through.

Will the front bring us any rain? Well... there's not a WHOLE lot of moisture to work with... but a spotty shower or two is not out of the question. A better chance of rain comes as we undergo a pattern change late next weekend. We will talk more about this tomorrow.

Have you noticed some of the trees already changing colors? I always notice the poison ivy... it turns red, and is usually one of the first things to change. You can tell, beause it is a vine... it will sometimes grow up from the ground... but a lot of the time it will grow UP a tree and it can wrap itself around branches. I really started paying attention to poison ivy a few years ago. I was pulling weeds in the yard... and accidently pulled some ivy. Well... the next few weeks were miserable for me!! So I have developed the mantra: "Leaves of three, let it be!"... and have used it as a good excuse to get out of doing yard work! :)

Anyway... it's sort of hard to get into the real FALL spirit... with temperatures in the 90s!! ;) With the ongoing drought... it will be interesting to see how fall color looks around the region. Here is a look at when area trees will reach their peak color:

For more information about specific regions around Missouri... check out the Missouri Dept. of Conservation's FALL COLOR PAGE.

I am back with you tomorrow for one last day... Gary returns on Tuesday!
Have a good one!
Jamie

Posted by at 3:27 PM | Comments (10)