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A storm approaches
Good afternoon everyone,
The weather pattern continues to develop and I have been much more encouraged during the past few days. And, now a storm approaches bringing a chance of a significant precipitation event Wednesday night through early Friday.
Click to enlarge (500 mb flow valid Thursday evening)
Click to enlarge (Surface forecast for Thursday evening)
The above two maps show the developing storm for Thursday. Will it be cold enough to snow? Probably not as warm moist air could get wrapped around the storm. Where will the storm track and how strong will it be? If it is very strong it may be cold enough for some snow near the center of the upper low. We will know a lot more as it gets closer. If it does dig in to our west then we will get another nice rain.
Gary
Gary
Posted by at October 23, 2006 4:17 PM
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Snow? Did I hear the magic word? I'll cross my fingers and hope for the best! (Even if it is a slim chance.)
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Marlina,
There is a slim chance.
Gary
Posted by: Marlina at October 23, 2006 4:29 PM
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What type of precip are you refering to? Also these storms that are passing through must be a good sign of things to come as the cycle continues to be cooler and wetter than average....Can't wait to see what that means the next two times the cycle comes around...As mush as we hope for snow this first time around any type of moisture must be a good sign moving forward....Bring it on...
Matt Maisch
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Matt,
If these storm systems keep intensifying right near us it is a great sign. Let's keep watching.
Gary
Posted by: Matt Maisch at October 23, 2006 4:30 PM
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Gary,
i want to kno your gut feeling on this next storm, i have a good feeling about it. if it tracks just right, and is strong enough is it possible for us to get some pretty good snow amounts. The storm keeps looking better and better with each new model run! what do you think?
thanks
Andy
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Andy,
It would have to be a bit stronger than the models are saying and take the perfect track. So, a few snowflakes on the backside would be possible. Accumulation of any snow is unlikely at best.
Gary
Posted by: Andy at October 23, 2006 4:37 PM
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Gary-
Speaking of snowflakes, is there anyone else that is having trouble registering for the snowflake contest on line? I've been trying all day long and it won't go through.
Help!!
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Susy,
Maybe someone else is, but not that I had heard.
Gary
Posted by: susy hensler at October 23, 2006 4:45 PM
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Gary-
I watch your weather every day but have heard no mention about your winter forecast. I am fascinated by your cycle theory and would like to know what it is showing for this winter. Is this an el nino year?
Susy
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Susy,
November 9th is the day for our winter forecast on the 10 PM news. El Nino is growing, but how much impact will it have? More later.
Gary
Posted by: susy hensler at October 23, 2006 4:51 PM
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Gary,
Have you looked at the latest snow cover in Manitoba and Ontario Canada? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SNOW/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif
As well as the Northwest Territories and on up into the Arctic with their ice? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SNOW/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif
Does it look impressive to you for this time of year, especially compared to last fall? Won't this help the cause of our storms to become better snow makers for the winter and to help keep it colder longer?
Thanks,
Ryan
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Ryan,
It may be a minor factor. I will have to go and look at it.
Gary
Posted by: Ryan at October 23, 2006 4:56 PM
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Gary-
How would an el nino effect us I mean would it give us more snow than ussual for the metro? keep up the good work.
Charles
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El Nino will likely affect the pattern, but something much bigger is going on and the pattern develops with or without El Nino. So, it will depend on what pattern sets up.
Gary
Posted by: Charles Sudduth III at October 23, 2006 5:05 PM
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This storm will be interesting. Lets see how strong it will get and when. The models show it pretty strong..but not sure if it is enough to bring the cold long enough. I saw a blip on the model showing one frame of cold enough air..but it went away on the next frame. Timing/location will be everything...looks as though the moisture is there..lets see if Mother Nature can give us the cold air...
Gary..have you seen any patterns yet. I know its early, but seems as though the NW ridge and N Canadian trough is consistent...
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Scott,
The pattern may very well be on its way to cycling already. We are analyzing the data every day.
Gary
Posted by: Scott at October 23, 2006 5:06 PM
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This sounds fun! I will hope to see a flake, but if it's just a big rain storm I'll still be happy, it's only October after all.
Nick in St. Joe!
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Nick,
Yes, it is nice to have a follow up storm! There may be a break after this one.
Gary
Posted by: Nick Rau at October 23, 2006 7:34 PM
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By the pricking of my thumbs something snowy this way comes.
I have nothing to back that up with beyond a gut feeling. Basketball Thursday will not happen this week.
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Shawn,
I hope your thumbs are working well.
Gary
Posted by: Shawn at October 23, 2006 7:36 PM
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Is it too much to ask for the long range models to prove out? If so..we would maybe have some snow on 11/2. That is lightyears away, but fun to watch.
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Scott,
The pattern is going through a strange change right now, so I doubt that long range run has a chance. Let's have some fun watching it.
Gary
Posted by: Scott at October 23, 2006 7:37 PM
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Hello Mr. Lezak,
The weather channel has a chance of snow on Saturday. Is there even the slightest chance that they are right?
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Ben,
There is a better chance of a some snow if this first storm gets a bit stronger than Saturday's chance. Let's see how it looks tomorrow. It is getting closer. I just don't see it or feel it yet.
Gary
Posted by: Ben Tracy at October 23, 2006 8:04 PM
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HEY GARY CRAIG THE SOFTBALL DIRECTOR AGAIN, IM TRYING TO HAVE MY LAST TOURNEEMNT THIS WEEKEND LAST WEEKEND RAINED OUT, PLEASE SAY THIS WEEKEND WELL BE DRY SO I DONT HAVE TO REFUND OVER 8K in team tourney fees thank you craig harvey
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Craig,
This weekend will be dry!
Gary
Posted by: CRAIG HARVEY at October 23, 2006 9:32 PM
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Gary,
Is there going to be any hint at when you will come out with your winter forcast.
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November 9th
Posted by: Jeff at October 23, 2006 9:38 PM
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Wow gary, the top 4 or so stories on your website front page are depressing.. :| At least your forecast is positive.. :) I learned a new song tonight on my guitar.. it goes like this.. "I'm dreaming of a white..halloween.." :) Then it'd be fun to actually take the kiddies out for trick or treat'n..
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Dave,
Keep dreaming, but let's get a white Christmas!
Gary
Posted by: Dave C. at October 23, 2006 10:03 PM
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Gary,
It is interesting seeing how the temperatures are cooling off as of 11PM. Saint Joseph and Lawrence 29F. Olathe 35F, Downtown 38F, and KCI 41F? It would be interesting to do a study with infrared technology to examine the various hot spots in the citY and where those sources of heat are coming from. One potential large heat source near the KCI is the power plant that is directly northwest of the airport.
Devin
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Devin,
I believe that the thermometer at KCI is flawed. Something is wrong as it reads way to high. Yesterday it hit 52 at KCI, but everywhere else was around 49 or 50.
Gary
Posted by: Devin at October 23, 2006 11:23 PM
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Gary,
Two things: We're planning to hit the Omaha zoo this weekend. What are your thoughts on the weather for that area for the two days?
Also, you mentioned El Nino. What type of effect has El Nino traditionally had on this area's weather? Thanks for doing a great job!
Happy Anniversary to Jamie and her hubby!
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Matt,
It depends on the year. There is a good chance that the winter will have above average temperatures with El Nino, but not all of the time. El Nino has an affect but not as much as many others think.
Gary
Posted by: Matt at October 24, 2006 12:45 AM
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