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A storm in two parts
Good afternoon,
I am on my way into work to track this storm. It is coming through in two parts. Part one, as seen clearly on the 15z RUC model, comes through us tonight. Part two will be the upper low Thursday night.
Click to enlarge (Ruc model valid at 10 PM tonight)
The X near Emporia is the vort max, negatively tilted and it should help create a nice area of rain, some heavy, possibly even a thunderstorm this evening. This combining with a strengthening warm front being induced by the main upper low.
Let's see if ESP radar lights up this evening. Have a great day!
Gary
Posted by at October 25, 2006 12:48 PM
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When will the rain likely end? By Friday morning?
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By 10 AM Friday morning!
Posted by: Harold at October 25, 2006 3:13 PM
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Hmmm it's 3:18 and I'm already seeing green on the radar.. You rule gary... :)
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Dave,
Thanks, but we need more radar echoes!
Gary
Posted by: Dave C. at October 25, 2006 3:20 PM
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Happy birthday to stormy! Hope I get rid of this cold that I have,(kind of hard to enjoy a cool rainstorm when your tired with a cold, still fun though!). So far we have had some drizzle here in St. Joe.
Thanks for your time.
Nick in St. Joe!
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Nick,
Some pretty good rain is moving through your area.
We hope you feel better tomorrow.
Gary
Posted by: Nick Rau at October 25, 2006 4:10 PM
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Hi Gary,
I run on Wed. eve. with the Olathe Running Club at 6:30pm. I don't mind a little mist but hate to run in the rain. What are the chances of it still being a mist at 6:30?
Thanks! Jan
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Jan,
Good chance, but now its 11:30 PM so looking back it was only misting.
Gary
Posted by: Jan at October 25, 2006 5:16 PM
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We had some lightning and thunder and it is raining pretty hard in St. Joe, cool!
Nick in St. Joe!
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Nick,
Cool, now send some our way!
Gary
Posted by: Nick Rau at October 25, 2006 8:03 PM
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Well, it looks like the areas to the southeast of the metro are coming up short once again. The radar looks nice, lots of nice echos, but its all moving northeast. Not the direction I like to see, especially with the bulk beginning north of us. Officially, the weather service in Pleasant Hill has the Sedalia area down 5.45 in the past three months and a whopping 19.75 inches short for the year. We need the rain desparately out here Gary, when are we going to see the precipitation?
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Mike,
Hopefully you will get into the comma head tomorrow night. It could be close, but I think you have a better chance of getting into it than areas further north.
Gary
Posted by: Mike in Warrensburg at October 25, 2006 10:28 PM
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Hello Mr. Lezak,
The storm system seems to be diving even further south towards southern oklahoma and northern texas.
Do you still expect another round of steady rain for this evening?
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Ben,
Let's track it closely. One thing the computer models very often can't handle very well is the northern edge of the comma cloud. I still think it makes it to north of I-70 tonight. But it is close. I will address this later this morning.
Gary
Posted by: Ben Tracy at October 26, 2006 7:37 AM
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We had 1.8" of rain as of 8am this morning in Shawnee. Our area got quite the lighting show around 10:30-11pm last night, and the rain came down in buckets! Looking for more tonight, my new lawn loves it!
JON:
I had thunder/lightning at my house, too. Don't you just love fall thunderstorms?! Thanks for the update!
Jamie
Posted by: Jon M at October 26, 2006 9:03 AM
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We had a nice light shower in Leavenworth last night, and got a good chunk of rain out of it, too (about .80"). What do you think our chances are for another good rain tonight?
BOBBI:
Everything is showing this storm to go farther to the south. But right now we're keeping rain in the forecast, and Gary will have an update later this afternoon.
Jamie
Posted by: Bobbi at October 26, 2006 9:59 AM
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Gary..I have a question. Look at the NAM 500vort 12Z 48hrs out. Look at Ohio/PA..that vort max that comes from the NW off the lakes...would this be an indicator for lake effect snow? If so...wow..they are in for it for a few days..that is one massive stream of vort coming through that neck of the woods...
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Scott,
This is likely going to be a huge lake affect year. I haven't looked at the situation up there for this yet. I will later on.
Gary
Posted by: Scott at October 26, 2006 10:42 AM
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