*******************
Mags is such a cutie. I think she loves going to work because she is a people person! (and probably gets paid well too--lots of biscuits!)

LAINIE:
Haha... you are right... she gets lots of TREATS to keep her occupied when we're here together! :) And she does love seeing everyone, too. Gary wants me to teach her to "roll over"... so that is my current project. So far, she will lay down, and roll onto her side. I've got to get her to complete the OVER part!
Jamie

**************************
National weather service finally put some snow in the forecast...What do you think about this Jamie?

BRYAN:
I am not sure if there will be enough moisture... but maybe some flurries as the colder air moves in Wed night/Thurs. It's too EARLY for this.... ;)
Jamie

********************
Awwww.... LOVE to see pics of Mags! She still has that puppy look! How old is she now? I don't know if I am ready for the COLD cold yet. I like the cool fall weather, but when you start talking about freezing... I cringe a bit! Have a good day!

SARA:
Mags just celebrated her first birthday. She is a smaller lab... just under 70 lbs... but that is the perfect size for me! I am sort of looking forward to this cold snap... as long as I don't have to stand outside IN it.
Jamie

*********************
Hello Mrs Jarosik,
difinitely looking foward to seeing colder air. Do you think after the cold spell itll still stay chilly or will the temps climb back up again in the 70's.
Whats up with the possible flurries? Think we might see some?
Any signs of an early snow storm?

BEN:
Glad to hear you will be happy this week with colder temperatures! We should be back into the mid/upper 60s by next weekend, so it will be a BRIEF cold snap. I guess flurries are possible, but like I said... not a whole lot of moisture there...
No signs yet of an early snowstorm. Stay tuned...
Jamie

***************************
What do you mean when you say the GFS has a "cold bias"?

Mags is looking so adorable! My dog has the same problem as Mags with rolling over. I've taught her to play dead, but she'll only do it halfway. I've decided that's good enough for me!

MARLINA:
Gary says I must be persistant... and just keep working with Mags. I will do it for about 15 minutes a day, and we'll see how long it takes her. I just started yesterday!! It seems like when she looks at me she KNOWS what I want her to do... but she's just not DOING it! ;)

Anyway, when we talk about model "biases"... it just means that the model does something TOO much. In my cold bias example... the GFS is often TOO cold by a significant margin... especially that far out in the forecast.

Does that make sense?
Jamie

*******************
Good Evening, Jamie

OK..I just picked myself up off the floor after viewing the NWS 5 day!! flurries..flurries?? on Thursday. We knew that snow would be in the Midwest midweek but the white stuff falling here Thursday? hmmmmm..a bit dramatic if you ask me, but with the ongoing weirdness...hmmm your feelings Jamie??

Robert

ROBERT:
As Gary (or other snow-lovers) might say... Flurries??... Big deal! :)

But, yes... it's turning colder... so it's possible. I am still not sure if it will materialize, though. It would be weird to see snowflakes this soon, that's for sure...
Jamie

***************
Jamie..follow up on my last blog entry from the last blog and your question where the front is for the 16-19th.

Look at the GFS 18Z 500-1000MSLP in Alaska at 174 hrs. That is my front. All 968mb of it! Now..look at the GFS 18z 500 vort. Between 174 and 228hr, the vort gets pushed over the canadian ridge, and comes back down into N. Canada as that 516 vort.

The low doesn't seem to come as far down this time due to the ridge that is stronger than last time.

Look at the Sept 24th blog pattern pics and look at the 204 18z GFS 204hr 500 vort. Looks very similar with the ridging, and the canadian blast forming. Both 2-3 days before the end/beginning of the cycle.

If you want to look really far out there...assuming the next cycle starts at about 240 hrs..then add 84 hrs " Ohio Low with blocking/ridge 84hr - Sept 27th blog" to get the 324 hr view. There it is!!!

It does seem the intensity of the features [ridges/lows] are changing a bit, but the pattern is still there...and seems to be in the models for the next cycle as well.
--------------------
Scott,

Until the new pattern begins cycling it is tough to look at a map beyond 120 hours and even think it has a chance of being right. It is usually fantasy at that range anyway, but especially now.

What you should do is look at the past few GFS runs and see how it changes big time around that 168 hour range and beyond.

Gary

********************
I had to see what Bryan was talking about myself.... IT DOES EXIST!!!!, but until you or Gary bite on it I'm going to try and pretend it's not there( it's hard though I LOVE snow!)
Nick in St. Joe( with his heart beating alittle faster:))

NICK:
That is one model (GFS) showing the potential... and while it IS there... I still think a lack of moisture is working against it! Gary will have more as we go through the next couple of days. And you know how HE loves snow, too... :)
Jamie

**********************
Jamie,
The GFS cold bias seems to be much less with the 18Z model run. The 18Z is a lot warmer than the 12Z. The models still can not seem to pinpoint where the strong upper low will track, and where the strongest core of cold air will be. I am still hoping it will be cold enough for a freeze.
Devin
--------------------
Devin,

There is a very good chance of a freeze Thursday or Friday morning. The cold core of the upper low is not the major factor though. That cold core is being caused by very cold air aloft, not near the surface.

Gary

***************
I see the minute chance of snow in our future. Blast my beaten young heart for getting so excited about the slightest, smallest minute chance of snow. Too much disappointment these past few years. I could use a good snow in October.

Though some of you will hate it I continue to focus my hopes for a really god snow in the near future. I hate it when the news anchors on any given station talk about how great the 60 degree weather in December is. It's not great, its unnatural. Except this is Kansas, and any weather is 'natural' because we're in such a strange location. We probably won't get any snow though. Le Sigh.
--------------------------------------
Shawn,

I am 100% with you on the love of snow. Mark and Elizabeth like snow too, so we have the rare anchor team that doesn't do what you describe. But, I have experienced it before.

There isn't much of a chance this week, but it will be cold enough. Let's hope we don't have to wait until January.

Gary