******************
You're too modest to say it but I'll say it for you.

BOOM. YOU DA MAN.

Everyone dismissed the rain and went with the models. It takes a person with (searching for a blog safe word...) large cajones to go against the grain and stick with a forecast. Thanks again for proving you are the best in KC.
---------------------
Shawn,

Thanks. I have made it a practice to NOT watch anyone else, but I figured no one else was going for it. I really appreciate it when viewers notice the difference. We are in such a battle to win over this city when it comes to weather.

Gary

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You do great work Gary!!!! That is why I watch you all and only you!!!!
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Monica,

Thank you! I better get to bed now as I must be up in a few hours to do the radio work!

Gary

*****************
I'm still awake, getting ready for bed and it must feel good to be right on this one. Good job on bringing us some rain.
------------------
Paul,

It really does feel good. I just hope this energy I am feeling right now doesn't keep me awake. I have a hard time sleeping through a storm anyway.

Have a great weekend and thanks!

Gary

*******************
Gary,

You hit it right on the nose with the rainfall, good forecasting. Now lets get one off these storms to produce some snow! Do you see any snow maker in the near future yet?

thanks
Andy
----------------------
Andy,

We still don't see any snow, but November begins next week. I think our first chance is not that far away. I hope so anyway.

Gary

*******************
Why do snow storms never hit us like this? This same storm in Dec/Jan would have dumped 12in+.
-----------------------
Chris,

Oh, but they do! You just have to have a storm like this with cold air near by. We are still deciding whether this type of storm will be repeating this winter. I lean in that direction. So, there is hope. This would have been an 8 to 12 inch snowstorm, and we would have been the only ones going for it. But, would we have succomed to the pressure of other forecasts. We made it a point, with this storm, to not look at other forecasts and just believe in ourselves. It is much more difficult with a snowstorm because EVERYONE lets you know what they are hearing. So, we must remember this all winter long!

Gary

***************
Good job Gary and the rest of the weather team. You nailed that rain right on the money. It was thundering and lightning in Berryton, KS around 10-10:30 pm and the rain lasted until just an hour ago 6:30 am this morning. I didn't check the raingauge today but we may have gotten half an inch. Thanks for your forecasting, Michael
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Michael,

Thank you. We stuck with it all the way to the end and then it happened. Last night really was exciting as the comma head materialized. It made it all the way north to just south of St. Joseph. I had almost 1 inch of rain in Overland Park. I will get my final total in a few minutes. This will be a two day total of 1.5".

Gary

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Hey Gary, you never stop! How much rain did we get on the plaza over the last couple of days.
-------------------------------
Mark,

I have to add up the total when I get to work, but I think around 1.5" on the Plaza.

Gary

***************
Awesome job Gary!!! This is why I watch you and no one else!
Jeanie
-------------------------
Jeanie,

Thank you! Have a great weekend.

Gary

********************
Hi Gary,
I'm so glad you were correct about the rain. It seems like all summer we were missed (especially in Blue Springs) so I am enjoying waking up to the sound of rain hitting my roof once again. I, too, am rooting for a big snow or two this winter. I was wondering what our precipitation deficit is now that we have had a couple of really good, soaking rains. I hope more rain is heading our way soon--it would be nice to catch up completely. Thanks Gary, and keep up the great work! You are the only meteorologist I watch.
------------------------
Tammy,

Amazingly, we are above average for the month now at KCI at over 3 inches in October. Let's hope the trend continues.

Gary

****************
I hope this pattern holds all winter. It could be very interesting. Great job on the forecast, I love watching that guy on xxx and then watching you. He always seems so sure of himself and then blames the models when he is wrong. Just stick with your great forecasting. You will be wrong many times, but not nearly as many as the other guys. That is what makes weather so fun!

Thanks!
------------------------
Scott,

Come on, we are never wrong. LOL Yeah, we will get a few wrong, and unfortunately it always seems to be the big one. Hopefully we will get a great feel for this season and get most of them right.

Gary

*********************
Gary,
According to your theory, how long does it take for all this October moisture we have had to circle the globe and come back at us in the winter?

Dave
----------------------------
Dave,

This moisture won't be circulating around the entire globe. The energy does rotate around, but sometimes it gets stuck on one side for a while. It is much more complex than this and hard to explain. The pattern is setting up and I will talk about it in more detail next week.

Gary

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Dear gary i watch your blogs very regulare but i must have missed part 1 & 2 of your theroy please explain.
----------------------------------
John,

I will next week.

Gary

*********************
I've got to ask about the NWS observations webpage for the Downtown Airport, which continues to confuse me. A lot of times when it rains, their hourly reports indicate "Rain" or "Light Rain" or whatever - and then the totals column for that hour is blank. For last night, the report for nearly every hour specifies rain or light rain, and yet the entire total listed for 23:54 through 5:54 is 0.01 inch. Can this be right? I live fairly close to the downtown airport, and it seems like it rained more than that. I guess I can see how they could report rain for an individual hour but it wouldn't be enough to even call it a trace. I can see that for one hour - but for six hours of reported rainfall? 0.01 inch? What's going on here?

Thanks,
Al

AL:
Are you looking at THIS page?
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KMCI.html

From what I see, it looks right. As of 11:53am, there was .45" of rainfall in the past 6 hours. Does that make sense?
Jamie

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Gary,
Is it possible to show us the radar recap from last night, tonight? Thanks

DAVE:
Hopefully you were able to catch this on our Weather Plus channel. We had it up there yesterday afternoon and overnight.

***********************
It was nice to see that everybody got a good rain! The only thing that worries me is, if it weren't for that little area of energy ahead of the big storm, St. Joe would of got missed, I know that you can't judge the entire pattern by ONE storm, but I know that in the past snow storms have lined up so ridgedly that the winter snowfall can be huge 75 miles south of a certian line and yet, that line 75 miles north gets almost NOTHING, I know I probably shoulden't worry yet, but it almost makes me sick seeing HUGE snowfalls so close that I can almost "touch" them and yet get missed. It's almost like a nightmare to me. The worst one for me is the big snow storm that K.C. got hit with just before Thanksgiving a couple years back. The snow was so close that there were cars driving around town with 6 inches of snow on them while our ground was bare!
Well thats enough about that, my stomach's starting to turn;)LOL!
Thanks for your time.
A Nick with a "sharp pressure gradient" in St. Joe:)!
---------------------------------------------
Nick,

Yes it can be amazing. But, remember you did get the one inch of rain. It did happen, so don't stress out about it. You almost got the bonus rain we received further south. And, if that wouldn't have come north we could say the same thing since further south didn't get as much as you the night before. Man, that is a lot of words to say one little thing.

Gary

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Jamie - No, I'm referring to the Downtown Airport, not KCI. Same URL but KMKC instead of KMCI.
Al

AL:
I am not sure what's up with that site... but on the climate data page it shows that 0.78" fell last night at the downtown airport.
Jamie

While your forecast was strong overall, I'd be a little careful claiming too much credit for a nailed forecast. Admittedly, I didn't see the other stations' forecasts, but I know you were hedging toward the comma head extending north of I-70, but it went even further then you had called for.

Last night's 10pm graphic for overnight rainfall totals had most of northern KC and areas to the N and W in the <0.10" category, while much of that region saw ten times that overnight...1"+ in many areas. Even the NWS had a .25-.50" (or higher) forecast for much of that region.
------------------------------
Jake,

We are just excited that it happened. It isn't that we are claiming victory, but last night at 10 PM when I showed the forecast graphic I explained how everything would likely be a bit further north and we could get close to an inch.

I think you are nit picking a bit.

Gary

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Great job sticking to your instincts last night when nobody thought it would make it this far north. At 10pm you knew deep down it was going to creep up and at least get the southern half of metro with around an inch.

I can see how forecasting a snowstorm is so much harder. If the temp is off by just a few degrees than expected, the major event does not happen.
------------------------
Joe,

Yes, snow forecasting is so much harder because if you are off by a half inch or rain that would be like being off by 5 inches of snow.

Gary

*****************
If we're going to start getting upset about rainfall totals noone wins. I think 'rain/not rain' is pretty good seeing as how Gary was the only one to say we'd get any rain.
--------------------------
Shawn,

Thanks. Exactly! Have a great weekend.

Gary

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O.K., I'm better now:)! Looks like were going to get a nice short taste of Inidan Summer! Am I right in assuming that you are anticipating strong downslope winds on sunday?
Thanks for your time.
Nick in St. Joe!
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Nick,

Not necessarily strong winds, but definitely a downsloping affect and just much warmer air aloft moving in.

Gary

***************************************
I love reading the blog before posting sometimes... It gives me a different insight to my normal blah blah blah stuff.

One comma head and everyone is stoked. Cool it was forecasted, but sheesh...when we start knit picking 50 miles here or there a few tenths etc...it is too much!

People...try to forecast one storm on your own. I have tried..its tough. Sure, you can pretty much nail down the possibilities of storms...but trying to get down to towns or rain amounts is tough.

Meteorology is one of the most difficult but fun sciences out there. Models help a lot, but they miss at the micro level. They help with trending or large events.

Gary..kudos to you. If others can't appreciate the value you provide...I surely can.
-----------------------------
Scott,

Thank you, great observations as usual!

Gary

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Gary - 1.71 inches total from this impressive storm. Looks tranquil for a while, but what a storm on the charts. Was asleep when it rained here, so did not here thunder, but I will put that on my weather map, as you indicated there was some. Had to be, for we had .52 before and the 1.71 after I got up - 1.12 is usually a convective type amount to receive like that.

Dog
----------------------------------
Storm Dog,

I saw about 15 flashes of lightning with some nice rumbling thunder. It was a nice soaking.

Gary

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Hi Gary,
We got nearly 1.75 inches of rain here in south Raytown from Wednesday night thru this morning. It was much needed rain.

Kristi
---------------------------
Kristi,

Yes! A very nice rain that fills up some more of our water reserves.

Gary

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Gary..I have done some thinking...the SMC was pretty short lived..and I have done the analysis to see it died the last week of Sept/first week of Oct. Oct 2nd I think.

This evening I began going through the maps..and found something kinda odd.

30-Sep Trough
5-Oct Cold Blast
10-Oct Trough
13-Oct Cold Blast
15-Oct Trough
21-Oct Cold Blast
26-Oct Trough
30-Oct Cold Blast - projected

Give or take a day in each of these. Where I indicate trough, that is either an ejected vort off the west coast or a true trough extention from the NW dipping into the SW and up through KC. Cold blast seems to be more Canadian, and normally dry.

The GRC may have a trend between the Canadian low cutting south, but receding due to the CA trough..the give and take of the trough coming and going with the Canadian Low providing the burst in the weakness of the trough. I have seen this pattern for the last two weeks.

Whatcha think?
-------------------------
First of all Scott, The GRC includes the entire pattern. The troughs, ridges, cutoffs, blocks, etc. are all cycling and it may have already started. It is very complex. And the upper level flow and jet stream will continue to strengthen all the way into January before it peaks in strength and then weakens. What happens to the same pattern as this energy increases can be dramatic, but still cycling with different specific weather results.

I finally have an entire weekend off for the first time in three weeks and I am going to spend some time analyzing deeply and start working on our winter forecast.

Gary

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I know it is almost time for your winter weather forecast, but I am curious about something. If I am understanding, your theory will repeat. So, we have had a lot of rain since Oct 10th. Am I jumping to conclusions that there will be more snow than last year?
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Ann,

There may or may not be a correlation between the specific rain events and the winter. It is more the general weather pattern than each specific event. Where are the storms weakening and where are they strengthening. This is what we have to figure out in the simplist terms.

So, don't make any conclusions yet. I haven't, but I have had some of those same thoughts.

Gary