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Dry cold front
It is hard to imagine us going from three days in the mid 90s; setting three records in a row which is very hard to do; and to end up with a temperature drop of 30 degrees, then to have not even a drop of rain. This is almost impossible, especially in October. And, this tells you how bad our weather pattern is at this moment. Fortunately there should be some huge changes during the next few weeks. But to what? We will know a lot more soon.
Today's cloud cover will be stubborn to move out so we should enjoy a day in the 60s.
Posted by at October 4, 2006 11:41 AM
Lets get some rain in this new pattern!
It appears it will be a long time before our next chance of rain.
Posted by: Kinley Winfrey at October 4, 2006 11:45 AM
Gary you are so right. We needed rain but zero. I hope the changes you see in the next few weeks are more moisture and a cooler and wetter winter. Take care, Michael
We are rooting for the same thing. But, unfortunately we have no control over it.
Posted by: michael huffman at October 4, 2006 12:09 PM
When does our new weather pattern set up according to your theory? I am ready for some exciting weather.
Not yet! It will begin setting up soon and it will be fascinating. This is one thing I am certain of and it will happen before November 10th.
Posted by: Derek at October 4, 2006 12:35 PM
This same old overall dry pattern seems to keep on going. Since your theory is that the new weather pattern usually starts to set up in october. You do not think this unusually hot weather could be part of the pattern? I know i hope not. I would like to see alot more precip.
Later this week I will go into detail on my theory. But, the earliest evidence of the beginning of the winter pattern has been around October 8th or so. The pattern we have been in may have very little to do with what is about to happen.
Posted by: Rodney Spurgeon at October 4, 2006 12:40 PM
1. Gary, you say in this entry that there should be some big changes in the next few weeks....that should be there WILL be some. Not should. ;-)
2. However, I will wait for that change. Until then, we won't have signifcant rain until 19-24th of October. Get used to the dry weather.
3. Yes, from the previous blog..yes they are covering their behinds..however..the fact is still this is the largest non-El Nino swing of SST anonomilies [sp?] between two month cycles. Not sure of the impacts of this..will keep reviewing.
4. I must know what starts the GRC. It cannot be random events that create it. It may be complex, and materializes in unique ways to set up the unique GRC, but the events themselves cannot be random. I will keep looking. 25 yrs vs. 1 year...looks like I got some work to do! LOL
5. I will look at trends of El Nino to see how it affects the 850mb level with moisture. As you say, it does not impact the 500mb level, but I do think it impacts the amount of moisture available to work with the GRC.
It WILL change, but I always wonder and wonder why!
Your last statement doesn't work for me. El Nino DOES affect the upper level wind flow, but it affects it and doesn't create the weather pattern as we now call it the GRC. El Nino doesn't have a direct relationship to the amount of moisture in our part of the world. What happens when El Nino occurs is it creates more of a temperature contrast in lower latitudes allowing the jet stream to strengthen futher south. So, when the GRC develops then we see how El Nino may impact it. I will address this extensively when making the winter prediction around November 10th.
The pattern will change Scott!!!!!!! We must be patient.
Posted by: Scott at October 4, 2006 1:02 PM
I am so glad you guys don't bash other stations on your blog. There is another blog in town where they keep doing that.
I think they should spend more time thinking about their forecast than worrying about what other stations are doing. ;)
Thank you Sara. We have decided to never read that other blog again. It sort of drives me nuts.
Posted by: sara at October 4, 2006 1:42 PM
I hope we don't lose you here in Kansas City because of our overall boring weather.
But I have to say, KC is by far the most uninteresting weather compared to other parts of the country. I guess it's our bizarre geographical position.
I love it here, but please let's have an exciting fall and winter.
Posted by: Ron at October 4, 2006 3:18 PM
Do you think the warm start to October and the huge dry cold front has anything to with the new set-up. Gosh I hope not!
Praying for heavy moisture this fall & winter
I really don't think this pattern we are in now has anything to do with what is about to happen. Until it changes we must worry.
Posted by: Steve Ambro at October 4, 2006 3:40 PM
Finally, some fall-like weather! I'll try not to think about Saturday's forecast of 90 degrees - yuck!
Just out of curiosity, do you know how the Farmer's Almanac comes up with their seasonal forecasts? They always seem to be way off base but I still wonder what they use as a resource.
I do know that the Farmer's Almanac comes up with their forecast two years ahead of time. So, you know what I think of that.
On Newsradio 980 KMBZ they had a forecaster from the Farmer's Almanac on to talk about this winter. They commented on how "our meteorologist has a different forecast from you" and the F. A. guy said is he often wrong? And John and Ellen said no!
Posted by: Marlina at October 4, 2006 4:55 PM
I am hoping we get a strong ridge to build in the Pacific so that we can get a strong cold front. However the strong jet stream winds blowing into Canada are not helping. I can not believe the F.A makes their forecasts 2 years ahead of time, but it would be great if we could actually get a colder than average winter season. When was the last time the winter season temperatures averaged below normal?
Anything is possible. The scary thing about my theory, if you believe it, is that once we know what the pattern is it sort of can devesate you if it isn't what you want it to be. But, if it is exciting then you know it will continue to be that way through the spring. So, there is hope and we are due!
Posted by: Devin at October 4, 2006 6:49 PM
Your statement in the reply back to me has me curious. If we don't know what forms the GRC, how can we be sure that El Nino, La Nina or other oceanic and atmospheric cycles may not contribute to the formation of the GRC? I do get that once the GRC is set, that the La Nina/El Nino patters may affect it, due to the jetstreams.
Also...I have to look a bit deeper into the lack of direct relationship to moisture in our area. You know me...trust, but verify. LOL.
Last..I had no idea there was another local station blog. How unfortunate for them that this set of bloggers are here supporting this one. I guess I never thought to look elsewhere as this seems to be very informative, direct, and passionate.
You could read there blog, but please don't quote them as I have a hugely different opionion most of the time.
Anyway....to answer your question: I have seen the GRC set up each year and I know it is independent of El Nino and La Nina based on my observations of what happens. The pattern sets up and the long term long wave troughs and ridges become established independently. Then there is a potential and likely influence from some of these ocean anomalies. We can talk more about this during the next few weeks.
Posted by: Scott at October 4, 2006 7:26 PM
I would like to say its pretty ILLOGICAL to slam another station via a blog entry. You guys are the most accurate in Kansas City for a reason. I don't hear anyone else coming up with viable weather theories in the area, and to slam a group of people via blog seems pretty immature.
I'm sorry some people are cruel.
Could you pray for an October snow storm for me? I was spoiled with one several years ago as a child and ever since I have wanted another one. The 90 degree weather is definately the wrong extreme for me.
Thank you so much! Of course we agree with you. Maybe I will post the accuracy numbers later this week.
Posted by: Shawn at October 4, 2006 7:33 PM
Shawn, I believe you will have an October snow, if you buy into the SMC [Scott Mini Cycle] ;-)
Posted by: Scott at October 4, 2006 9:46 PM
Oh wow!! Just out of morbid curiosity I had to check out the blog that people are referring to.
So this is a professional posting this stuff. You know it's one thing to have a difference of opinion but it's another to be a jerk on the net.
Gary, I have seen you forecast things WAY in advance than other stations, I have seen you have a totally different forcast than other stations, and yet you still nail it more often than not.
It's pretty sad when you see things so unprofessional like that. Of course what do I know? I'm just one viewer in KC. If you prefer not to post this, I understand. You have a nice, smooth, board here and I'm sure you don't want it cluttered with garbage. I just wanted you and the whole team to know you have one devoted viewer.
No problem. We just want to give you our ideas and our forecast. Thanks for the support!
Posted by: Donna at October 4, 2006 11:10 PM