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We are pulling for your theory Gary on the winter pattern. It has been to long since we have had a real winter in Kansas City.
Us snowlovers are actually forgetting what it is like to have sonw here it seems.
Is there a spotter or reporting site for the Blue Springs area that rainfall totals can be seen from?
Thanks Gary, we anxiously await your words of winter wisdom!
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Keith,

We should get a rainfall update from Storm dog, in Blue Springs, soon.

The pattern is setting up, but it is only in its early stages.

Gary

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I am due for a storm early next week..that is the one I thought might bring snow. 3 days after that storm, we will have the Mid Ohio low with blocking etc etc...I have documented the pattern...lol
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Scott,

The only problem is.......everything is now 100% different.

Gary

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Gary,

Finally got a nice rain of .74 at my house in Grain Valley.

Looking forward to seeing your winter weather prediction.

Keep up the good work. Your the Best!!!

Jeff
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Jeff,

Thanks for the report! I will have part 2 of the weather pattern theory early next week.

Gary

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Gary,

I wanted to know if you like the patter that is setting up? Meaning do you see any snow soon?

Andy
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Andy,

Yes, I am rather encouraged on how the weather pattern is developing, but it is still very early. There is tremendous hope for an exciting weather pattern.

No snow any time soon.

Gary

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Actually, the front has came through with a little bit of drizzle and a patch of two of light rain here in St. Joe, not really significant total wise im sure, but I am still pleasantly suprised! As a matter of fact as I am typing this it is 44 degrees with light rain!(GREAT WEATHER)
As for the weather pattern, I kind of feel like were waiting for a big atmospheric roulette wheel to stop:)(I hope we land on SNOW!) Thanks for your time.
Nick in St. Joe!
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Nick,

Yes, that is actually a good analogy. Will the wheel land on our number? It is almost that hard for us to get a good pattern. But, Nick, it may very well land on our favorite number. I am not sure yet, but the trend is good.

Gary

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The biggest part of me is really ready for lots of snow, but part of me is already cringing at the thought of a freeze this week. I'm with you on pulling for an exciting snowy winter, though!
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Bobbi,

We will have a good idea of what will happen this winter in a few weeks.

Gary

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Gary,
I am heading up to manhattan for the K-state Nebraska football game. I have heard rumors that it could possibly snow. now i dont beilive anything until i hear from you tonight. Here's how it seems everytime. When its hot here its hotter in manhattan. When its cold here its colder there.
Thanks.
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Jeff,

There is no chance of snow!

Gary

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Gary,

You have repeatedly talked about how the pattern is changing and how it is "100% different" which leads a fellow meteorologist to ask: what specifically is changing?

You've been touting a change in the pattern for months now going back to the mid-summer both on this blog and on air using terms like "strange" and "chaotic"...I'm curious specifically what you mean by these statements. (My theory is that the weather pattern sets up between October 10th and November 10th and then starts cycling. This cycling doesn't end until sometime in August. After the pattern falls apart I believe what was a somewhat organized chaos becomes crazy chaotic flow and this is why I use the term chaotic quite often during late August and September, and it is somewhat "strange" as well) Additionally, when you say it "cycles" every X number of days, I know that means it changes, but specifically how? Such an ambiguous statment seems flexible enough to allow for just about any forecast imagineable to verify according to this theory. (I don't know how the pattern cycles, I just know that it does. I can show you the amazing comparisons in the 500 mb charts. Every year has a unique cycle and a unique pattern. I did a power point presentation in August last year at the Broadcast and Weather & Forecasting AMS conference. I used the three previous years as examples to show the evidence)

I know how big you are on your theory and it makes me very curious hearing you talk about it so much. Can you give us anything more concrete on it? (I know you're going to provide "Part II" soon ... but I'm talking about numbers - observations and values from years' past). You have cited the length of cycles in years past...can you point to observations recorded during those times that show what changed every X days on the cycle you have cited? Can you point us to some numbers? (I don't have numbers, but I have been plotting graphs of different locations around the northern hemisphere. I hope to show the cycle in these graphical plots. I need about a year off to do this research or hire someone to help me as I obviously can't take any time off. I will be doing a part 2 and 3 of my weather pattern theory before issuing our well thought out winter forecast. This should provide you with more information)

I'd love to see some some peer-reviewed research on the topic if it is available. Have you submitted this information to any journals for review or publication? (I would like to submit my abstract and right up an extensive report for the AMS journal soon. It may be tough to get other meteorologists to accept this, but I am convinced it happens and every year without question)

Your accuracy is clearly second-to-none in KC and that is greatly appreciated. This makes me curious to read and learn more about your theory and how it dovetails with both short- and long-term forecasting. Thanks for fielding the questions.

---------------------------------
Jake,

Great questions and I have answers to every one of them. This may take me a while and as a result I will likely give the fairly brief version.

You know what my theory is already so I won't go there at this moment. The pattern that does develop falls apart in late summer. As this happens the upper level flow goes into "chaotic" transition. This is why you will here me say the word "chaotic" especially during August and September, and it is "strange" almost all the time.

After the pattern develops during the next few weeks it WILL begin cycling. I don't know how or why the pattern cycles, I just know that it does. I have tremendous evidence (comparing upper level charts and using a little imagination). And, once the first cycle is completed we can then figure out what will happen next. So, my confidence in the current pattern grows tremendously by late December or sometime in January. It can be quite frustrating until this time. I can show you the amazing comparisons in the 500 mb charts. Every year has a unique cycle and a unique pattern. I did a power point presentation in August last year at the Broadcast and Weather & Forecasting AMS conference. I used the three previous years as examples to show the evidence.

I don't have numbers, but I have been plotting graphs of different locations around the northern hemisphere. It will be almost impossible to prove mathematically. I hope to show the cycle in the graphical plots. I have years worth of 500 mb charts as well. I need about a year off to do this research or hire someone to help me as I obviously can't take any time off.

I will be doing a part 2 and 3 of my weather pattern theory before issuing our well thought out winter forecast. This should provide you with more information and I would like to submit my abstract and write up an extensive report for the AMS journal soon. It may be tough to get other meteorologists to accept this, but I am convinced it happens and every year without question. I have a few peers that are convinced that my theory is valid.

I hope I answered your questions.

Gary

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Around the middle of August, I blogged with my theory on weather patterns and thought at that time, our first frost would occur in most areas between the 9th and 13th of October. My theory is based on 6 month weather patterns for the last 30 years based on our pattern since July 1st.
Based on that (and I know you don't agree), our current pattern most closely resembles that of 1987- where the hottest day was August 3rd (ours was the 9th), the first frost that year was Oct. 3 (which is relatively close since Oct. 26 is the average.) If we have a frost on the 12th or 13th, that's still closer to 1987 than the last 30 years.
If that pattern continues to 1987, then it's 25" of snow total, with most coming in December and February.
I'll guess we'll see...
Gary B.
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Gary,

I sure hope you are right about the comparisons. Personally I think it will just be a coincidence, but I hope you are right. The winter of 1987-1988 was my favorite winter of my life. And, I was in Oklahoma. We had two major snowstorms and a major ice storm. It snowed, measurably, in November and March, which is rare for Oklahoma. We'll see!

Gary

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Gary,
Have you looked at the GFS for next tuesday! As of now,it looks like a fairly large severe weather outbreak could be possible in our area next tuesday. Its amazing, freezing temperatures possible now, and severe weather possible next week. This has to be exciting news/possibilities for you. I know the models are in mass chaos right now and this could all change by next week, but im excited for another possible late season chase oppurtunity! What are your thoughts on this? Thanks!

Adam Penney
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Adam,

It is very possible that we set up into a very stormy Tuesday or so. But, It depends on a "cut off low, weatherman's woe" being kicked out. So, let's see how we feel by around Friday.

Gary

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Gary,

Thank you so much for the extra time and research you put in to giving us accurate predictions. I agree with the study you mentioned today. When I compare forecasts among local news websites, and yours is by far the most precise. You and your team go above and beyond.

Diane
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Diane,

Thank you very much! Have a great Thursday.

Gary

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Just wanted to say that our current temperature as of 10 P.M. in St. Joe was 32 degrees according to TWC ( I figure that at least they coulden't mess that up:))!
By the way, I only watch that channel for a quick glance at our current conditions if I don't feel like getting on the computer at that moment.

NICK:
You guys dropped to 32, and then temperatures came UP a bit overnight, believe it or not, as some cloud cover moved in. The clouds moved OUT this morning... and you're back down to freezing!
Jamie

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Oh. Me. Oh. My. Got to love the region we live in. It was 90+ last week for a couple days and folks are already talking about snow being around the corner. Part of me rolls my eyes at this nonsense. Then I remember the October Surprise...

I was a freshman at KU. I had a 3 hour lab (can't remember which class). I remember it being cool yet heavy out (muggy?). Didn't mean anything to me at the time. Got out of lab and it was a winter wonderland. Folks were doing belly dives down the sidewalks (KU is on a big hill). And, Gary/Jamie, correct me if I'm wrong, but it was back up into the 50s or 60s within the next couple days. That snow didn't stick around long.

To recap... snow not so likely in October; but!!! You never know. I love this area for the changing of the seasons and the weather that doesn't mesh with a given season.

This all having been said... methinks another 80 degree day before it cycles into cold.
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Hank,

I think you are right! Another 80 degree day happened a few times last year after this date, but I am worried we have seen our last one this season.

Gary

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Gary,
I do not know where NOAA is coming from when they say that the current El Nino is growing rapidly in intensity. The latest SST animation maps show that the SST anomalies in the Central and Western Pacific are actually staying the same or decreasing, while anomalies in the Eastern Pacific are holding steady or slightly increasing. NOAA has lost credibility.
Devin
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Devin,

It is a weak El Nino at this point and I agree with you. Let's see how it develops in the next few weeks.

Gary

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Quick question about Gary's theory:

When it "sets up between October 10 and November 10," but the cycles are different lengths each year, does that mean the cycle may not have started yet? Example: A cycle that starts October 25 and lasts until December 10, then repeats? Or does that mean that the timeframe between October 10 and November 10 is often what repeats itself? Thanks for clarifying!
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Good question Drew,

The weather pattern becomes established between October 10th and November 10th. It is hard to say when the true cycle begins, but it most likely starts in late October or November. So, the cycle has very likely not started yet.

Gary

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.74 in.? I didn't get .74 in. I only wish I had hehe, but I got .53 in. if it matters now, bringing my total for my gauge to 17.81 in. now. How does that fair to the average? I'm sure it is somewhere but been busy so pardon me for my less of an effort look-up. Well, looking forward to a winter like pattern as some others, primarily the first comment, have mentioned, I lived in Minnesota so seeing snow is something of a treat now a days. Alright, thanks for the spot on the totals here, will check back when I can.

-Matt
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Matt,

We had a nice soaking rain, but we need more.

Gary