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 October 10, 2006

Forecast accuracy and a possible freeze

Good morning,

A storm is moving our way this morning. The upper level disturbance will likely track just north of Kansas City tonight. A weak surface low will be generated over Oklahoma this afternoon and some additional Gulf of Mexico moisture may get pulled into this system. We could end up with a period of heavier steady rainfall later this afternoon and evening as these ingredients come together. There is even a slight chance of an embedded thunderstorm and close to 1 inch of rain is possible by 10 PM tonight. I am hoping everyone gets at least 1/2 inch.

We will then concentrate on the strong Canadian cold front moving through on Wednesday morning. Most of the air asscociated with this will be aloft. We will likely see temperatures drop to near freezing Thursday and Friday morning. But, as you can see on the map below we may still have a westerly wind Friday morning as the air rotates around the strong Great Lakes surface low. Cold air would not be allowed to settle into the lower areas with the air mixing. Let's see how it looks tomorrow.

sfc Friday morning.bmp
Click to enlarge (surface map forecast for Friday morning)

Forecast accuracy: There is a huge difference between our forecast and the others in Kansas City. Weatherate.com is a company that began tracking television stations weather forecasts years ago. We had no idea that this company existed until they informed us that we were the most accurate television station in Kansas City and that it wasn't even close. The forecasts for the next four days are used. They check the highs and lows, precipitation, snow amounts, wind, fog, and even severe weather. The forecasts are weighted where day 2 counts only 1/2 as much as day 1. Day 3 is weighted less than day 2 and so on. It is the best system I have ever seen for deciding which forecast is the most accurate. The following are the latest numbers for this year through last week. A lead of .5 is considered very large. The leading station in most markets is usually leading by about .05 to .20 on average (so our lead, as seen below, is huge). This is a message we are trying to get out to Kansas City that there is a huge difference when it comes to weather forecasting. I know most of our viewers know this, but it would be nice to get the message out to the viewers of other stations who think that weather forecasts are always wrong. There is a difference, and this is the only way we know of getting the message out besides having the most accurate forecast on the air every night.

Weatherate.com latest standings (the lower the number the better the forecast) These are the facts!

1st Place station: KSHB-TV (NBC Action News): 6.00

2nd place station: 6.87


3rd place station: 6.95


Last place station: 7.21
(the station I used to work for years ago)

NBC Action News (KSHB-TV) has been the #1 station (forcecasting accuracy) for four years in a row!

The weather pattern continues to be in major transition and I will have a part 2 to my weather pattern theory and what we are seeing soon. Have a great day!

Gary

Posted by at October 10, 2006 6:30 AM

Comments

********************
I always tell my coworkers your forecast, and it is comepletely off from what they heard on another station. Guess who usually has the right information! ME! I started watching KSHB because you switched to there. I actually liked the news anchors better on your old station at first, and it was hard to switch. But now I love everyone at KSHB, and would not watch any other news or weather! Thanks for giving us a forecast we can rely on, Gary.
-------------------------
Kimberly,

Thank you for the kind comments. We are glad you made the switch and notice the difference. It is very difficult to switch from your favorite station and this is the battle we have every day in the ratings!

Have a great day!

Gary

Posted by: Kimberly at October 10, 2006 7:53 AM

**************
Congratulations on the no. 1 forecast in our area. But then I followed you to this station when Windy started her commericals. It's rainy here in Lenexa this am.
-------------------------
Ginger,

Enjoy the rain. It will stop for a while, and then come back this afternoon.

Gary

Posted by: Ginger at October 10, 2006 8:16 AM

**********************
The rain, while good for the region, saddens me. I go to college and work full time and it looks as though tonight's basketball match, to be played outside between my friends and I, will be cancelled. It begins at 9pm. Is there any chance the rain will hold off?

I know most likely not. Le sigh.

On the bright side, congratulations on being the most accurate in our area. Although you didn't need another company to tell you guys how aweseome of a job you do. Thanks for striving to be accurate and succeeding more often than not.
-----------------------
Shawn,

Thanks and I agree. But, some viewers need that outside source because a lot of forecasters "claim" to be the most accurate, which isn't accurate at all. This is where the outside source may help.

It looks like the game will be cancelled. Let's see how the afternoon rain develops.

Gary

Posted by: Shawn at October 10, 2006 8:33 AM

********************
After all the complaints about a meteorologist making sniping comments about your forecasting abilities, I guess you couldn't resist taking an obvious swipe at him, could you? You know, I expected better out of both of you!
---------------------------
Bobbi,

I am not taking a swipe at anyone. I knew it could come across that way, but we are only showing the facts! It is like looking at the sports standings in the paper.

Gary

Posted by: Bobbi at October 10, 2006 9:07 AM

*****************
Gary Gary Gary (shaking head), I already think your the best in KC, but could have done without a few of the shots against the "other" stations in todays blog. Some of us did do some defending of you against the other station and it appears you did the exact thing they did... That's ok, you still rock...
---------------------
David,

I understand what you are saying, but I did not do the same thing. These are the FACTS. O.K., maybe someone else could post the numbers, but no one ever does. Does that make sense or am I still bad.

Gary

Posted by: Dave C. at October 10, 2006 10:46 AM

******************
Gary..there is nothing wrong with saying "scoreboard" when making a point. From a pure personal forecasting perspective, you have no point to make. You know you are the best and that should be enough, but its not that simple. Since "most accurate" in town means viewership, you need to communicate the difference. Viewers equal revenue so its pretty clear. I just ask that you call it what it is. To communicate being most accurate should be tied more to the money [station revenue] than your own satisfaction.

After all..who else has a GRC/LRC? or a subsquent SMC?

LOL.
-----------------------
Scott,

I am not sure what you mean by "most accurate in town means viewership". It doesn't. We aren't #1 in the ratings, although we are striving to be every day. I wish being most accurate meant more revenue. This is why I posted it today. A lot of viewers believe that the weather forecast is just wrong quite often. I know our viewers don't believe this and hopefully this is the message we can get to those viewers that do think that way.

Gary

Posted by: Scott at October 10, 2006 11:24 AM

*************************
I guess it doesn't matter much, but how's the accuracy in other markets? What's the score? I wonder why the company does not post the details in their own website. It reminds me about the "independent research" ad in the wireless industry, although they're totally different things...

Your theory is interesting and I've been keeping with your blog since the beginning, but it's still open for discussion, challanged and fine tuning until it becomes a fact. While it's bad for the other blog to be specific about the bashing (shame on them but apology accepted), it's not hard for those of us who have been reading the two to tie your comment with that incident.

Anyway I enjoy reading the two blogs and I'm all for competition... just don't want to see things getting ugly and then we won't be reading either blog, like you're not reading theirs.
--------------------
Ivan,

My intention is only to bring the facts to the table. I think the company doesn't post the results unless your a subscriber because in most markets it is very close. One station wins one year and then another wins the next year and it would be difficult for a station to use them for more than one year. In our case we have won every contest they have had. We may be the only ones that can say that!

Gary

Posted by: Ivan at October 10, 2006 11:35 AM

*************
I'm not disputing that what you posted were the facts according to Weatherate.com. What annoyed me was that you very carefully pointed out which station was in last place. You're not bad, but I guess now you've gotten even.
-----------------------
Bobbi,

It wasn't my intention to get even. If there was some other source that could let everyone know the facts it would have been a better way. But, who will ever do it? I am going to take some heat today aren't I?

Let's just get some more rain.

Gary

Posted by: Bobbi at October 10, 2006 11:42 AM

**********************
This makes about as much sense as Cardinals fans getting upset by saying 'The Chiefs won 24-21.' There's no reason to be upset by someone saying the facts. If Gary were to say 'everyone else in town is a huge bunch of dummies' then he's in the wrong but he said 'according to this company we are the most accurate.'

I don't see why so many people are up in arms about this. Simply posting numbers is in no way gloating. Don't defend yourself Gary, being accurate is nothing to be sorry for.
-----------------------------
Shawn,

Thank you. Exactly my point!

Gary

Posted by: Shawn at October 10, 2006 12:14 PM

*******************
Gary,

We moved to KC in late Feb. and wound up watching Action news solely because we liked the accuracy of your weather forecasts. We have lived in several different states and were part of the crowd that would sing, "Why bother to forecast? It's always wrong anyway!" until now...

PS. Like being able to follow the blog and check in almost daily, though much of it does go over my (laymen's) head, I enjoy learning new things (like the fact that this winter's weather pattern will be setting up in the next several weeks and then repeating itself...) I consider the blog the "educational" side of the weather forecast :-)
------------------------
Christa,

Thank you and we are so glad you are enjoying our blog. Your point is the one I am trying to get across. You can imagine what it is like when we get the forecast right and then someone tells me that we blew it, and I had to explain that they must have missed our forecast. We aren't always right, just the most accurate and there is a difference. So, thank you for noticing!

Gary

Posted by: Christa at October 10, 2006 12:17 PM

***************
Gary, I guess I assumed that "most accurate" would sway some viewers to a station based on that claim. Much like any other business where "lowest, best, most, etc" claims are geared to gain customers, I would have expected this claim to be used the same way.
------------------
Scott,

I agree with you, but the competitors use those same words in their own promotions and it just isn't true.

Gary

Posted by: Scott at October 10, 2006 12:19 PM

*********************
I'm all for saying that you have the most accurate forecast in town. That doesn't bother me one bit. What got me was when you pointed out exactly who was in last place. I notice there was no mention of which stations were 2nd and 3rd. Hence, the thought that you were sniping at one station in particular.
--------------------------------
Bobbi,

I didn't mention them by name, but I must agree, that is something I should have just left out.

Gary

Posted by: Bobbi at October 10, 2006 12:33 PM

**********************
Uhhhh...I started reading a few of those negative comments, and just couldn't take it anymore. The more I read the madder I got, so I just quit. Don't let them get you down. Most of us know you're just trying to get your point across that if people want the most accurate forecast, they should watch your station. I do not believe you were getting even or bashing or doing any of that. You're trying to make your station #1 by touting your team's forecasting abilities, what's wrong with that? Those people that doubt you should keep track of all the stations' forecasts for a few weeks and see what happens. Please continue to post those stats on here when they become available, they are further confirmation of what your loyal viewers already know...Gary and his weather team are the best!! :-)
-------------------------
Koyuki,

Thank you so much! It is tough reading these. Most of the comments have been supportive. It is amazing to me that so many don't see the difference. Oh, there is no doubt that our weather team may not be someone else's favorite, but there is a huge difference in accuracy that they must find out about. Thanks again Koyuki for you tremendous support.

Gary

Posted by: Koyuki King at October 10, 2006 12:47 PM

*******************
Gary,
I am happy that your weather accuracy continues to surpass your competitors. You always go the extra mile with your forecasts and communicating with everyone that makes posts on the blog. I think that the rating system is very fair and easy to understand.
With these cold air masses, it seems like we always have to battle the westerly (downslope flow). You would think that we would be far enough removed from the Rocky Mountains to escape it, but it still impacts our weather.
Devin
---------------------------
Devin,

We are close enough, and remember Kansas itself slopes up to the west.

Gary

Posted by: Devin at October 10, 2006 1:06 PM

*****************
Gary,
I think it's ok to post those numbers... as you've done it before. It's the truth... not your opinion. And you're not being mean by doing this, as it is all statistical.

But why don't you call out the OTHER stations (2nd and 3rd place), too? Just put it all out there so we can see!
-----------------------
Sara,

I won't do that as the other three switch places back and forth. I didn't mention the name of the other station, I just implied what it was. Maybe I shouldn't have done that.

Thank you!

Gary

Posted by: sara at October 10, 2006 1:06 PM

********************************
It's not that you were bad, it was just "timing" that may come off in an odd light.. But then again, the huge difference was the other side said you were "illogical" and your just stating what an independent organization says. My feelings is alot of weather comes down the personalities. I know me and my wife like you and jamie the best. With the use of this blog you able to communite more directly with us. All it all that just builds more loyality in the long run.
------------------------
Dave,

Thank you! Everyone will have their favorites so I agree with you!

Gary

Posted by: Dave C. at October 10, 2006 1:10 PM

**************
I enjoy reading your blog and your competitor's blog, but lately it's been like a bunch of Jr. High School girls snipping and clawing at each other. Not everything in this world has to be a controversy. I mean, ye gods, we are talking about the weather here.
-----------------------
Hank,

I just laid down the facts.....period.

Gary

Posted by: Hank at October 10, 2006 1:12 PM

**********************
Gary

You and your team are GREAT!!! I've lived in a lot of different places in the United States (from Seattle, San Diego, Augusta, GA, to Killeen, Texas and now here in Grandview).. I've also been to many places overseas. The point is this, YOU and YOUR TEAM ARE the MOST ACCURATE.
-------------------
Bill,

Thank you! This is the message we would like others in Kansas City to figure out!

Gary

Posted by: Bill at October 10, 2006 1:16 PM

***************
HI Gary,

I really love your weather forcasts and I can see why your station is number 1. You shouldn't have to defend yourself for being on top. My question is why do the forcasts vary from station to station? Doesn't every station use the same computer models?

Have a great day!!
Debbie
--------------------------
Debbie,

This is one of the points I am trying to make. There is a big difference because when it comes to forecasting some really know and others just guess. This is why there is a difference in the forecast. Wouldn't you want the best and most accurate forecast if you could get it? This is what we provide.

Gary

Posted by: Debbie at October 10, 2006 1:25 PM

*****************************
Gary-Way to go on your #1 rating in Kansas City. The FACTS say it all. My husband took his lawn mower this morning to go mow a yard for someone after work. I told him he couldn't mow tonight because Gary said 100% chance of rain today. He still took it. I will shake my head at him tonight and say I told you so.
My co-workers and I love your blog and often discuss how crazy we think Scott's theory is. Sorry Scott, but at least other's recognize your name.
Thanks Gary for being the most accurate weather station in Kansas City. You are #1.
--------------------------
Ann,

Thanks and it is educational talking to Scott each day. When others ask good questions it helps us in many ways.

Gary

Posted by: Ann at October 10, 2006 1:25 PM

************************
Gary,

This weather outlook is quite cool. How does the Maple Leaf Festival for Baldwin City look on Oct. 20-22? I have to march in the parade on Saturday around 10:30am.

By the way, great job on the forecasting. I look at the other stations once in a while, but you are the most informative of them all.

Thanks,
Ryan
-------------------------
Ryan,

Thanks and October 20th to 22nd is still a bit far off to figure out with the pattern changing so much.

Gary

Posted by: Ryan at October 10, 2006 1:43 PM

**************************
Gary, The NWS came out with their winter forecast today, which was largely based on a weak El Nino off California. I thought a strong El Nino meant warmer winds from California which would blow our way for a warmer winter than normal. Wouldn't a weak El Nino mean just the opposite? I just don't give that much credit to El Nino. I believe the arctic air has to go somewhere and some point. What are your thoughts on the NWS forecast and have you come up with your winter pattern yet.
Gary B.
-----------------------------
Gary,

El Nino, weak or strong, means about the same thing. If it is stronger then the anomaly's will be stronger. But, as I have stated and will stand by, the weather pattern sets up independent of El Nino, and then if there is an El Nino it will influence the pattern. So, this forecast has a chance at being accurate, but just as much chance at being wrong.

Gary

Posted by: Gary B. at October 10, 2006 2:33 PM

*****************
Gary, I don't believe you are taking a swipe at the other station, you are just stating a FACT, not an opinion. Don't apologize for anything.
----------------------
Kim,

Thanks!

Gary

Posted by: Kim at October 10, 2006 2:54 PM

******************
Finally a nice large sheild of rain moving in and temps in the low 50's! You have aced it again! By the way congratulations on your accuracy numbers and I am totally with you, you didn't attack anybodys method of forcasting you just showed the results. I learned something from those numbers today too!
Thanks for your accuracy and time.
Nick in St. Joe!
----------------------
Nick,

Thank you! I love the rain, but I want more.

Gary

Posted by: Nick rau at October 10, 2006 3:13 PM

****************
To get everyone off the subject, I see the NWS has put out its WINTER OUTLOOK. What do you know, they are calling for a WARMER than avg. winter. Also a equal amount if precip. except fo southeast missouri. Starting to blame it on EL NINO... What do you think Gary????
--------------------------
Matt,

You know what I think! I will have a strong opinion on this soon.

Gary

Posted by: matt at October 10, 2006 4:01 PM

**************
Hello Mr. Lezak nice seeing the rain,
Even if the temps are above average, wouldn't the precipitation still fall as snow, because the average temps in the middle of winter are close to freezing. I believe 2 yrs ago the temp did not get above freezing for like a month. So it does get very cold.

What do you think?
More rain then snow? Or more snow then rain?
----------------------------
Ben,

If we have a warmer than average winter it doesn't mean we won't get snow. Last winter we had the 1 foot snowstorm on December 7th, and this was during one of the warmest fall/winters ever.

Don't worry yet. Let's see what my theory shows for our winter in a few weeks.

Gary

Posted by: Ben Tracy at October 10, 2006 5:06 PM

*************
Congrats on being most accurate.
Please tell me you think we are going to get snow this year. I know I'm in a minority, but I would like snow this year.
When do you comprise your Winter forecast.
-------------------------------
Michelle,

Expect the winter forecast before November 10th. You are not in the minority, but the majority. More people than you think want it to snow, including me.

Gary

Posted by: Michelle at October 10, 2006 5:14 PM

************************
Gary,

People complain just to complain. What you did was fine. I am sure they are the same ones complaining on the other blog. To each their own. Big deal if we all know who was in last place because of the wording you put in it. To me its the truth. You know, all I ask for in a forecast is what is assumed will happen. I would rather someone come on the TV and say okay on Friday we will get 7 inches of rain as of right now. Then as each new model comes in they start to taper it off or add more or keep it the same. What I hate, and one station in particular does this all the time is when they go "we will get absolutely no rain on friday. I know everyone else says so but I am telling you it will not happen." Friday comes and it rains 7 inches and that station is like all week long we have said it would rain. Big deal on posting the numbers. Congrats on being first place. You and your weather team sure work hard for it and deserve it. I have a really good feeling that if you were 2nd, 3rd, and maybe even 4th you would still post them and promise to try harder for next year.
--------------------------------
Keri,

You came up with a good example. Our weather team always will tell you what we think will happen. Then, we make adjustments. If you are interested in weather I think this is the way to go. You don't sugarcoat anything. Our first impression of a storm system is often the right one.

Gary

Posted by: Keri Worley at October 10, 2006 6:54 PM

***********************
What does it mean when you say the "cold air will stay aloft?" Does it mean that the true cold air from the front won't be reaching ground level and we only feel the effects from it in the higher atmosphere?

And about the post stating the NWS is predicting a warmer than average winter. They've been predicting warmer than average winters for as long as I can remember. If you ask me it just seems like a safe way for them to go. Your model is the one that really gives us the info we need!
----------------------
Marlina,

The air aloft will be extremely cold with this set up. There was some buzz a few days ago that this would be massive outbreak of cold air. But, since it is mostly aloft the records will be broken at 18,000 feet up, but we don't have records for that level. There is some cold air coming down at the surface, but this has had no time to build up any really cold air mass.

Gary

Posted by: Marlina at October 10, 2006 7:05 PM

*******************
Two thoughts..based on the comments above, I believe I feel like a bit contributor to a talk show. Also, I totally can see this blog spat between the two stations much like the scene in Anchorman. Those of you who have seen it know what I am talking about.

This blog cracks me up..enough not to even mention the SMC..oops...

And I am glad to be recognized as crazy...people thought Einstein was crazy too!
------------------------
Scott and Einstein in the same sentence? LOL

We had a nice rain today, Scott. Things have changed.

Gary

Posted by: Scott at October 10, 2006 7:42 PM

************************
Good Evening, Gary

Well, seems with such a visually impressive, vigerous low moving east and a pretty decent moisture feed..general drenching rains had a pretty decent chance. However, again it didn't materialize, the fragmentation of these storms over Eastern Kansas continues to befuddle all of us. The real test of changes actually tangibly occuring now are real..storms with teeth..the next 30-45 days will tell the tale. I was saddened to see the sniping albeit muted by both sides the last few days with the " accuracy " and " first " nonsense. I really believe Gary that the enjoyment of the blogs and discussions on both sides mind you, are to leave the petty
" mines better " garbage the rest of the world sadly engages in way to much daily behind for awhile, as we enjoy a science that cannot be fully marketed and plotted and thus why we all love it and marvel at what we don't know. Your above this Gary, and remain a excellent forecaster and meteorologist and like the rest of us who follow the science, strive to get better and better and your friends and peers understand that and others will be drawn to it. Let the opposing market dudes do the cat scratching.

Robert
----------------------------
Robert,

Well, I guess. I really am just showing the facts.

Anyway, this storm in the end did come together this evening. 1/4 to 1/2" is all we really thought it would produce. So, it took a while but it did finally happen.

I think I like what I see in the developing pattern. We may get our long awaited weather reward.

Gary

Posted by: SkyMan at October 10, 2006 8:36 PM

*********************
Well, Gary, I'm glad that I was able to make my point at last about mentioning that other station, but I must admit that you've been a really good sport about it. I don't do a lot of weather forecast "comparison shopping," but I do enjoy watching you and appreciate your accuracy.
-----------------------------------
Bobbi,

Thank you for your constructive criticizm. Let's just enjoy the changing weather pattern.

Gary

Posted by: Bobbi at October 10, 2006 9:10 PM

**************
Gary,

Don't you dare feel bad about posting the numbers. The whole weather team should feel very proud.It is an accomplishment and should be out there for everyone to see. You were the only one with a 100% chance of rain today. I'm willing to bet that there isn't too many of us who hasn't channel surfed and watched other stations from time to time and in doing so, it isn't hard to figure out what station belonged to what number on weatherate.com

Again, I love the blog. At times I feel I'm over my head with the tech. stuff, but I feel like I'm learning. I think this weather team is fantastic. You all talk the talk and can walk the walk...
------------------------
Donna,

Excellent comments! Thank you so much. Keep reading our discussions and I am sure you will learn. I try to explain it in a way for you to understand.

Gary

Posted by: Donna at October 10, 2006 9:19 PM

*****************
It was sure nice to see the rain tonight. My rain gauge might be off, but it says half inch. Anyway, we have a groupd of kids camping this Saturday night and was wondering what the weather would be like. Hope it's not to cold to cancel it.
------------------------------
Kim,

It looks good for Saturday night.

Gary

Posted by: Kim at October 10, 2006 9:55 PM

*******************
Hello Mr. Lezak,
I watch all of the weather stations just to compare them to another. I definitely enjoy watching your stations the most. You make it seem a lot more interesting and I learn a lot.

You definitely diserve to be the most accurate.

I hope to someday become a meteorologist and hope to be as good as you.

Thanks.
-----------------------------
Ben,

No, thank you! And, good luck!

Gary

Posted by: Ben Tracy at October 10, 2006 10:35 PM

******************
Phew. What a day. I take a little nap during the rain and then there's 30+ comments. Basketball was rained out, but we had fried chicken as a group. It's like 'negative' basketball, I suppose. Much to my chagrin you nailed the rain. Basketball would have been nice though :(.
------------------------
Shawn,

I guess I stirred up some controversy yesterday. Hopefully you got some good rest. After I am done with my radio forecasts this morning I plan on a little nap.

Gary

Posted by: Shawn at October 11, 2006 2:39 AM

 
 

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