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Jamie,
The GFS and European model continue to disagree about the amount of cold air next week. The GFS develops a strong closed off low near the Great Lakes while the European has the storm as an open wave. I am hoping for the stronger GFS because it would be nice to have a freeze/frost for all of the people suffering from allergies.
Devin

DEVIN:
We will probably have a frost... and maybe even a freeze... but I don't think it will be AS cold as the GFS is showing right now.
Jamie

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Hmmm...let me see here..this would be the "wierd shortwave from Sw/trough merging with cold front" event. That means we are about 8 days from Sunday away from the BIG COLD FRONT to restart the cycle. This will end the third cycle and begin the forth. So far each one has been on time. The big cold front should be here the 16th or so...

Recap of SMC...

0 hr of cycle - Large cold Front [Sept 27-28th]
168 hr of cycle - Ohio Low with blocking/west ridging [Oct 4th]
168-312 ish..more ridging
312ish wierd shortwave from Sw/trough merging with cold front [Sun. Oct 8th]
500 hr ish - Large Cold front - end cycle [see it above in Alaska?]

This is the first cycle I have predicted and given dates/maps then gone back and shown the results based on the prediction. [Third cycle I have noted since its inception in Aug - when it materialized out of nowhere and broke the heatwave. I will have to keep looking at that day/week to see what caused the change.]

Sooo...after the cold front, we should then get some warm temps due to the ridging...so late Oct, probably will have unseasonably warm temps.

Lets see how it holds up into the forth run when the GRC is to be setting up!

[I am sure to be shot for this blog entry...]

SCOTT:
Gary isn't in today... so no shots will be fired! :) I do see this pattern you describe. But what about everything happening inbetween? Like the 2nd cold front due to arrive this week (WED/THU). That looks like a BIG COLD FRONT to me. Anyway, it will be interesting to see how it all changes as the GRC begins.
Jamie

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Maybe this year we'll finally have a Halloween that isn't freexing cold! I always feel bad for those kids who have to wear jackets over their costumes.

MARLINA:
I *HATED* that as a kid! I grew up in Ohio, so we had our fair share of cold Trick-or-Treat nights, too! No fun!
Jamie

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Hello Mrs. Jarosik,
How close will the snow be Tuesday night?
Northern Nebraska?

BEN:
Tuesday night there could be rain initally mixing with... then changing to snow in the Dakotas and Northern Nebraska.
Jamie

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Jamie, I made it to the weather service open house today. I really enjoyed this presentation they put on and actually learned a few things. Thanks for posting about it on your site. I really liked speaking with the lady that operates the computer that issues warnings. Amazing that it was just a few clicks of the mouse and how quickly it goes out on the wire. What I wouldn't do to work at there! That would be downright the coolest place to be during severe weather.

DAVE!
I am so glad to hear you went down to Pleasant Hill! The people there are wonderful... truly one of the best forecast offices I have worked with. Thank you for sharing your experience with us... I am glad to hear you found it interesting and fun!
Jamie

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Ive noticed the GFS is showing this cold outbreak possibly bringing some wintry precip to Kansas City late Wed night as the rain moves out of here..And the NWS in Kansas City, has also mentioned this in the Forecast Discussion for Saturday Afternoon.

BRYAN:
The moisture/lift should be just outta here before the real cold air gets here. It's something to watch, though. (and we're probably NOT going to get AS cold as the GFS is advertising)
Jamie

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For what its worth, even the GRC doesn't detail every pattern in its cycle. Or it doesn't seem to, instead focusing on the major elements of its cycle.

But..back to the SMC. Jamie, YOU SEE THE PATTERN!!!! Thank you for looking!

I will look a bit deeper into it now to determine if the cold front you describe is part of the cycle I missed, or an anomoly.

SCOTT:
The GRC takes ALL the *longwave troughs/ridges* into account when determining the pattern. You can pick out any two 500mb maps in correspondence during the pattern, and they will pretty much look the same!!

The weather is all ABOUT patterns... but let me know what you come up with concerning THIS big cold front. Because not only is it coming NOW... but I do not see any big cold front showing up yet... on the 16th.
Jamie

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Jamie...we are 7-8 days from the next big cold front for the 16th. You are wondering where this front today was in the SMC...

The last big front was Sept 27th. Subtract 7 days from Sept 27th..and you have Sept 20th. Read the blog entry from that day.

"September 20, 2006

Strong upper level storm"

Now..I want to make a clear point between the SMC and the GRC. The GRC is far more complex than the SMC. The SMC does not focus on longwaves, jet patterns or models per se. The SMC is a revolving pattern of frontal scenerios that seem to be occuring at a regular sequence with some precision on strength and location.

As far as not seeing the 16ish front..as I always here for the GRC..be patient, have faith. LOL. Additionally, if it doesn't show up by the 18th, perhaps this was the break that enables the GRC to begin...

Either way...you see the pattern. Follow the blog from late Sept to now to see the next cycle into Nov....
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Scott,

It is easy to see that everything has changed and in a major way. So, I think you should think about getting on the same page of the developing GRC and let your mini cycle theory pass.

Gary

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Have you made your winter prediction yet?
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Richard,

The pattern is just now setting up. We will be ready to issue our winter forecast in a few weeks.

Gary