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Gary , when will you be back to work ?
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J.B.

I am on the radio this morning, and then back to work this afternoon.

Gary

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Morning, Gary and the weather team. Gary have you written your fall forecast yet? Again some of the national and local meteorologists are blaming or attributing everything to El Nino. Do you see that horrific ridge that formed late last fall? Continue your fine work! Michael
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Michael,

El Nino is growing in strength, but it only began developing in August. So, blaming anything on El Nino is absolutely ridiculous. The hurricane season was near average, but way below predictions, so there are some trying to use El Nino as the reason. There is no way it has anything to do with it since there was no El Nino until late in August.

The pattern for the fall is just now beginning to set up. I will have a lot more details later this week on how I make our prediction. I firmly believe that any forecast for the winter and fall that comes out before the pattern even sets up has very little chance of being correct. More later in the week.

Gary

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welcome back gary, well at least you won something. everytime i go to the boats in KC, i lose money, and let me tell you, it makes the 2hour drive back home kind of miserable!

any thoughts on the pattern next week? our radio club is having it's first fundraiser one week from friday, and rain would be bad.. so far the GFS seems to be pointing toward dry at least.
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Glen,

I hate losing! And, I know what that ride is like. An entire Las Vegas vacation can be ruined by losing, at least for me. So, this trip was a good one. Next time I should go to Hawaii so I don't have to worry about the losing!

The weather pattern is changing so much right now that anything 7 days out is going to change as well.

Gary

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This is the season of change, but it also seems that it is the summer that just won't die. Record highs and no moisture equal us getting burned out again out here between Warrensburg and Sedalia. We've had virtually no rain now for about 3 weeks, what we have had has been less than a tenth of an inch. The pattern right now resembles what happened last year. Moisture is staying north of us when there is any available, otherwise, the gulf doesn't seem to be providing moisture to any of the systems moving through until they get east of us. So, looking in your crystal computer, do any of the signs point to the gulf opening up any time soon and providing us with a little welcome relief from the dryness. I know at least the heat will abate with time, just not soon enough for my tastes.
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Mike,

We can't seem to get out of this weather rut. Hopefully this new pattern that will set up soon will be a good one.

Gary

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Ahh..good to have Gary back! The rest of the team did great, but good to have the banter.

1. I will not abandon my cycle until I see proof the the GRC..You haven't given up..and I won't until I see the GRC fingerprint and evidence my cycle dies.

2. I kinda agree with the overblown comments on El Nino, however..the CRC doesn't not claim a change both La Nina or El Nino until 3-5 months of consecutive change. That being said, its quite possible that the forming El Nino did affect the Atlantic Hurricane season while waiting on the CRC to actually admit it was happening. Clearly the W/E tradewinds were much stronger this year [El Nino trait due to the warming closer to the S.America coast]. One point of clarification. El Nino is more closely defined with positive results on the measurements. Not as much the trend from how low it was from the previous La Nina. To clarify, a jump from 0-1 would signify a potential El Nino, but so would a jump from -4 to +1. Clearly the second would be more affecting to the climate. The second is more accurate to what has happened since Spring.

Call me crazy...if we have the moisture to deal with..still thinking snow late Oct. I think the Arctic low will bring the freezing temps.
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Scott,

The snowflake contest begins next week, so you better pick an October date, or do you think it will just be snow with no accumulation?

El Nino didn't start until August. Look at the data. There was none, so it is a very poor excuse. Something else went wrong, or really not much went wrong. It was just a normal season.

Gary

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Gary et al: A miserable weekend (Mon-Tue) for us - our a/c compressor went out and won't be replaced til Wed (then we won't need it) What awful heat w/o a/c - this ridiculously lousy weather year continues, and this was the icing on the cake. What are the odds of 95 F in October, and having your a/c compressor go out? The a/c guy said this is rare, but it happened to us. I am thoroughly sick of this - the Canadian Yukon is looking good to me!!!

A thoroughly disgusted and heat-sick Dog
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Storm Dog,

Thank goodness for my theory. There is hope that everything changes. It may be an even worse pattern, but it may not be too.

Gary

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Glad to see you are back, I hope you had fun in Vegas. Out of curiousity when was the last time there were three consecutive days in a row above 90 in October?
Thanks for your time
Nick in St. Joe!
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Nick,

I will do some checking.

Gary

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Gary -saw your broadcast of 0814 hours or so - abysmal. Our drought continues - and apparently exacerbate in "severe" status as time goes on. Can our pattern be worse than last years? I think "YES". Note that two of the record highs were in the mid-50s F - multi-drought years, and I think we are in the midst of a muti-year drought - whether global warming is influencing this, I don't know, but I would not hold my breath for a truly interesting weather pattern. I am ABSOULTELY DISGUSTED.

Dog
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Doggy,

It better change soon.

Gary

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Gary, I agree with you. El Nino did not officially start until August with the first .5-1 degree annomoly. BUT...if you look at the trending from Feb..

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/advfig2.gif

You will see we went from a strong La Nina though the summer to a moderate El Nino. Almost a 2 degree annomoly swing. That is a huge change! La Nina and El Nino in of themselves carry and affect change, but so does the swing in between the two. Clearly this transistion this year increased the W to E trade winds increasing sheer of over the Atlantic. That is why we had a below normal hurricane year [actually yes..it is below normal]. So yes...El Nino officially started in August, but the change has been underway since Feb. 1963 and 1986 are the best examples in the past of what is happening this year...this is INSANE to have such a huge swing in one calandar year.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
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Scott,

It went from a very weak La Nina (or almost neutral) to the current very weak El Nino, but a strengthening one. The tropical Pacific waters are warming up steadily and this may very well become a moderate El Nino, or possibly even a strong one.

So, yes, we can use this as one of the excuses for the very bad tropical prediction for this season. But, it isn't the sole reason.

Gary

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Hi Gary,
So glad you had a good time in Las Vegas. What a great place to see and have some fun!
Where were Stormy and Breezy during your vacation? Do you leave them with friends or at a doggy hotel? Good to have you back.
Sure hope fall weather will be here soon.
Your friend,
Kay
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Kay,

My cleaning lady, who loves dogs, stayed at the house and took great care of Breezy and Stormy.

Have a great day!

Gary

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Gary,
The current weather pattern featuring a trough in the Pacific and storminess in the Gulf of Alaska is all to familiar. The downstream affects place the plains in a ridge like situation. Also, we do not have much cold air to work with upstream because the jet stream is further north than usual. This is a common El Nino like feature. We can only hope for a good GRC pattern, but many areas in the plains have been in a drought for years.
Devin
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Devin,

We are due!!!!!!! I will be talking about my theory later this morning. A unique weather pattern will set up during the next few weeks. What you are seeing now will be gone soon. It happens every year without question. So, watch it happen. I always am scared at this time of the year hoping that we don't get doomed again like last year. What looks like El Nino signitures to the pattern may or may not be because of the developing El Nino. We just have to watch the pattern evolve. I am convinced that El Nino will influence the pattern but something MUCH bigger is about to happen.

Gary

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I'm glad you had fun in Vegas! And believe me, there are women out there who aren't into the majorly big biceps... You've got a really nice looking arm for a "regular" guy! :-)

My friend and I are debating on which day to go to RenFest this weekend. We're thinking of going on Monday because of the much cooler temps, and we were wondering if the 30% rain chance currently shown for Monday night would be coming after 7pm, when the fest closes for the night...?

Joy

PS: I learned last week that one of the puppies my stepgrandma sold this spring went to someone related to you (the puppy's name when sold was Buffy). I just thought that was a cool "six-degrees" connection and am glad to know the puppy went to a good home!
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Joy,

Thanks for the kind comments. I do work out a lot, but it is all natural.

I don't have any relatives in Kansas City, but maybe it was someone else I know.

Gary

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Gary...thought. If the big transition is to happen in the next few weeks...are you looking to see what may be causing it? If so, what features are you looking at?

Interestingly enough, I am currently taking a Oceanography class right now, and have learned oodles about how the relationship between ocean and atmosphere has huge impacts to both. I guess that is why I am looking at ocean affects more than usual.
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Scott,

There are certainly ocean atmospheric relationships. But, something else, even bigger, must be happenin. Yes, I am looking for it, but I just don't have any major thoughts in what is causing the pattern to develop and then get stuck and cycle. I don't believe the ocean/atmosphere (O/A) relationship is a cause, but rather an influence. I just don't know at this time. So many other meteorologists will make there forecasts based on the O/A relationship and they are quite often way off on their forecasts.

Something bigger is going on in the atmosphere above the oceans. A north to south type of thing that develops and cycles.

Gary

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Gary...I posted my last post premature. I always like to have fact to support my thoughts, or else..they are just another opinion...
The Colorado State University team issued their final tropical forecast for this year yesterday.

"The authors note that the failure of the El Niño prediction models to properly forecast the rapidly developing El Niño event this year was a major reason why their earlier hurricane forecasts were inaccurate. August-September 2006 sea surface temperatures in Equatorial Eastern Pacific warmed by approximately 0.6ºC from their June-July values, which is the greatest increase ever observed in a year that wasn't already seeing an El Niño event"

This seems a bit more extreme than just a weak La Nina to weak El Nino change.
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Scott,

That isn't a fact. It is a statement of excuse to find a reason to cover their you know what. They just blew the forecast.

Anyway, it doesn't matter to us anyway. It was a very quiet hurricane season which was a nice break from last year.

I am about to write an entry for today.

Gary