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Nice and strong developing storm
Click to enlarge (500 mb flow valid Thursday evening)
Not much time this morning as I am on my way to Blue Springs to be on a Johnny Carson Birthday celebration show in front of 150 senior citizens. I am bringing the dogs so hopefully they will do some tricks.
The above map shows the continued trend of slowing down and strengthening the upper level storm system. Digging storms like this one often end up slower, stronger, and further west than previous models. We just haven't had a chance to "play" with any of these storms in a long time. It isn't fun talking about them when they aren't affecting you. Well, this one is going to in a big way. We will very likely have at least 1 inch of rain from this system before it ends. There is NOT enough cold air for any chance of snow at all from this system.
More later, must be on my way. Watch the shows tonight as we will make it an educational and informative weathercast. More on the weather pattern theory later in the week.
Posted by at October 24, 2006 10:17 AM
You are right about the KCI thermometer reading warm. They only went down to 34F last night. The other readings around the area were Olathe 28, Downtown 31, Lawrence 24, Saint Joseph 23, and Overland Park 31. Someone needs to contact the airport and see if their is a problem with the thermometer or see what heat sources are in the immediate area.
It did get down to 31 at KCI in between hours, but it still is reading high.
Posted by: Devin at October 24, 2006 10:44 AM
Well I am excited about the storm as we could use the rain but I am hoping that it will be out of here by this weekend as I am having an outdoor party on Saturday.
I can't wait for your winter forecast. I am hoping for a white Christmas this year!
Keep up the good work!
It looks dry and warmer this weekend. We are working on our winter forecast. We still have two more weeks to analyze this complex weather set up.
Posted by: Jeanie at October 24, 2006 11:25 AM
Oh man! I really am wishing for snow now. Hopefully this winter will be good. I wish one storm with 2ft or more of snow, or maybe another Ice Storm.
I like ice storms, but not the kind that leave the city paralyzed.
Posted by: Andrew at October 24, 2006 11:26 AM
Any signs of when we might see some good snow? It has been too long. lol Anyway keep up the good work
No chance anytime soon. But, I have a feeling it could happen in November this year.
Posted by: Andy at October 24, 2006 1:14 PM
When is the rain starting tomorrow? We are supposed to have a field trip to the pumpkin patch with my son's pre-school class at 2:00 tomorrow afternoon. Are we going to get wet?
Hopefully it will wait until after 3 PM. I am leaning towards it staring sometime before then.
Posted by: Michelle at October 24, 2006 2:58 PM
So if you don't think we are going to get any snow than when do you think we will get our first snow? Wouldn't you think that we are going to get a lot of snow this season because it looks like the pattern is going to have alot of weather systems lining up in the Pacific Ocean.
The Pacific Ocean isn't necessarily lining up with storm systems. So, let's be patient and see how the pattern really sets up.
Posted by: Charles at October 24, 2006 3:33 PM
Gary I appreciate your dedication with your weather research and support in your KC area with Stormy and Breezy. Several other weather forecasts around Topeka and Wichita were using NOAA's November map sowing above temps here and EC precip. It also shows Alaska as way above normal in temps. However, I read a meteorology report out of Alaska that a weatherman put out and he is predicting normal to slightly above normal for Alaska. My point is, in following your forecasts for many years and understanding your theory, it seems like many out there are basing thier forecasts on EL Nino. What is your thought on this? Or will you address a little in the Part Three? Even though I am 55 miles west, I would love to be a spotter from Shawnee County unless you already have some. We received 1.19 inches in both of my rain gauges here in Berryton, KS. Thanks for all you do weather-wise. Michael
Great observation. It is amazing how almost everyone's winter forecast is based on El Nino. But, not ours. The weather pattern is setting up right now and as my theory states it is unique. El Nino may help create some temperature anamolies characteristic of the warm episodes, but where? During our last El Nino the northeastern U.S. had an extremely cold winter. We forecasted it. But, when it was brutal up there other forecasters were shocked and thought no one saw it coming, but we did.
I will have part 3 by Friday, maybe tomorrow.
Posted by: michael huffman at October 24, 2006 3:54 PM
It's always fun to have a nice "comma cloud" storm system forcast to slam right into you!, now IF we can get some of these things to come at us over the next few months then we will be really having some fun.
Thanks for your time.
Nick in St. Joe!(patiently awaiting for the "roulette wheel" to come to a rest:))
The roulette wheel has landed on the wrong spot way too many times. It is slowing down and our number is growing very large at this moment.
Posted by: Nick Rau at October 24, 2006 5:42 PM
The offical low at KCI was 34F and downtown was 31F between hours.
I like the idea of the strong low Thursday with significant rain but the models continue with the storms moving into the Gulf of Alaska. I am hoping for a ridge to develop in the Pacific again so the Central US stays cool. Thanks.
Thanks for double checking. I thought so!
We will have some warmer stretches. It just has to happen.
Posted by: Devin at October 24, 2006 6:08 PM
Gary, We are 15 days into the first part of the cycle. We have had more moisture in the last two weeks then we had in a while. The temperture has been down and below normal more than usual. If the next two weeks are like this ... we should have a very interesting winter,spring and summer. Thats my thought. Anyway you keep up your Great Work. We have lived in Europe, Florida California, Texas, Washington ST., Wyoming and now here in Kansas for the last 12 years and when you first came on the other channel we knew we had a Weather Forecaster. Anyone here in KC that doesn't appreciate a good forcaster as you ... well lets just say they don't know one. Have a great day and Keep Going on Forecasting Fever. It's your energy that makes it better yet.
Thank you so much! I may pass this along to our promotions department. This is the message we could be promoting to show there actually is a big difference. Thanks again for noticing.
Posted by: Steve at October 24, 2006 6:39 PM
Isnt this a similar forecast like the ocober suprise? nobody was expecting it to snow and then the storm somehow produced just enough cold air for it to snow? Isnt it possible of that occuring on this next storm? i just have a feeling. I mean couldnt the storm do sumthing wierd and intensify a little more to give us another suprise?
There is no chance with this storm. The "October Surprise" in 1996 had a very cold airmass to our north that got pulled into the storm. This doesn't have that support and as a result there is absolutely no chance at all of any snow from this storm.
Posted by: Andy at October 24, 2006 8:25 PM
I am worried about the hype of this storm.
This thing could be a BUST! NWS says
"GREATEST CONCERN IS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG UPPER TROUGH NOW DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BEFORE MOVING EAST AS A STRONG
CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...STILL HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DIVE FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. THE STRONG H3 JET HAS STILL MISSED THE UPPER AIR
NETWORK. FOR NOW...WILL ACCEPT THE MODEL PATH."
It appears like you are forecasting with your gut. You are 100% sure it is going to rain, while NWS is 70% sure it is going to rain. What do you think about their concern? Is this going to be a lot of hype (as these things tend to be by others) and no action, or is this storm truly going to produce? My gut feeling is this is going to be a bust - but I want to hear your 2 cents worth. :-)
By the way, I am not saying you are wrong, I am just worried that this thing is not going to do what it is hyped to do!
I am only saying it is going to rain Wednesday, and then again Thursday picking up Thursday night. 1 inch of rain is likely and perhaps more. So, there is no hype at all. Something can always go wrong. The storm could go further south, be less organized, etc. I will address these issues on Wednesday. But, as of right now I am confident in this storm producing. If 2 inches or more falls somewhere but not at your house and you only get one inch then you better not tell me it was overhyped? Remember it is a storm that hasn't even formed yet, so this is another issue. I just like what I see.
Posted by: Brian at October 24, 2006 9:46 PM
Even tho' this was posted yesterday, i'm a believer that this storm is going to rain, rain, rain. alas, this means two wet basset hounds with large muddy paws! lol! we don't have a rain solution for them yet so my brother comes over to let them in and out. one of these days i must send a photo of these two. looking forward to your next post gary! - mt
Breezy and Stormy get the muddies too! Send me a photo of yours and I will get it on pet picks.
Posted by: Mike at October 25, 2006 6:18 AM