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 October 22, 2006

October Surprise (10 years ago today)

500mb oct22 (2).jpgThis is the 500 mb flow at 7 AM October 22, 1996

sfc oct22 (2).jpg Click to enlarge (shows the surface at 7 AM October 22, 1996)

It was 10 years ago this morning that one of the most dramatic weather events occurred in Kansas City history. An upper level storm was very strong and intensifying as it moved into south central Kansas. Very cold and dry air was located over the Dakotas moving into Nebraska. This was a key player in this surprise snowstorm. As the surface low deepened over Missouri the cold air was drawn in and we had perfect conditions to create just enough cold air for snow to begin falling. This was a powerful storm and we had over 2 inches of rain before any snowflake fell.

I was forecasting rain changing to a few snowflakes as the storm ended. But, as the final comma head developed around the upper low it was all snow. And the trees came tumbling down as they were full, just like they are today. By 10 AM I was the first in Kansas City to predict that we would see 1 to 3 inches of snow during the afternoon. By noon I had updated it to 4 to 6 inches and 6 inches ended up falling while temperatures bottomed out at 32 degrees, our first freeze that year. It was 57 degrees for a high the day before, 57 degrees the day after, but a major snowstorm in the middle.

Now, you know my theory. Is it any surprise that on November 30th, 1996 a similar storm produced 6 to 8 inches of snow again just 39 days after the October Surprise. I was at the beginning of developing my thoughts on the theory at that time.

For this to happen again at this time of year you would need similar conditions. It would take the perfect combination and this is why even though some of the computer models had some runs showing a chance of snow I DID NOT mention it for a reason. It is very difficult in October to have such a storm to produce snow. It is NOT unusual for a few snowflakes to come down at the tail end of a storm in October and this happens about 5 out of every 10 years. It almost happened yesterday.

Have a great day! Let me know how you remember that day, if you do? I am going to the Chiefs game with Jamie and her husband. It is their one year anniversary today. Go Chiefs. I will come home and get ready for work as I am doing the 10 PM show tonight.

Gary


Posted by at October 22, 2006 8:52 AM

Comments

*****************
thought you were taking some days off, getting caught up on sleep? i remember this storm all too well. great story about a hairy ride home wheeler airport from omaha in a small plane. town looked almost like a war zone on the way home.
----------------
Mike,

I have used up my days off for the year. I may still take a day or two, but I am here to track our exciting weather. Go Chiefs!

Gary

Posted by: mike trainor at October 22, 2006 9:01 AM

*******************
I remember the day very well. I was here from Chicago visiting my family, due to fly home that afternoon. I had to work the next day!! At 1pm I realized I might not get home. At 3pm I would not let my daughter drive me to the airport. At 7pm she and I were walking down the middle of the snowy street enjoying the white stuff and the silence interspersed with cracks of falling tree branches. Both of us just love snow. It was beautiful. I got home the next day on an 8am flight. My employer demanded proof of my excuse for the absence!!! Today we live in KC and depend on Gary's forecasts.
Ann
-------------------------
Ann,

It was a very rewarding weather day. Sometimes when it is a surprise you must let go the fact it wasn't predicted very well and just enjoy it. Even though there were widespread power outages, inconveniences developing all around the city....it was still a great weather day. Thank you for your memory of that day.

Gary

Posted by: Ann Schenke at October 22, 2006 9:35 AM

***********************
Gary,

I remember that day very well. We just moved here from St. Louis and we just purchased our first house. My wife is from St. Louis and this is my home town. My wife asked me how much snow does KC get and should we purchase a snow shovel? I told her we usually get a little more than St. Louis but not much, but it's too early to even think about a snow shovel. Boy....was that a mistake. My wife came home from work that day and got stuck in our drive way. I ended up coming home early and using a dust pan (yes you read it right) to shovel her car out of the driveway. This is a day I will never forget.
----------------------
Bryan,

Now, let's get a snowstorm this year during winter for a change.

Gary

Posted by: Bryan at October 22, 2006 9:36 AM

****************************
Gary,
I remember that day very well. I believe that I measured around 6-7 inches of snow after I picked up well over an inch of rain. The next day I had to clean up a lot of tree branches that fell down. I have even better memories of being at KCI airport on December 22, 1989, when the temperature was around -20F! I doubt that KCI will ever get that cold again.
Devin
-----------------------------
Devin,

I am sure it will get that cold again, but will it be this winter or years from now? We'll see.

Gary

Posted by: Devin at October 22, 2006 11:04 AM

********************************
I remember that day well Gary. I had just moved up with my family from Duncan OK and none of us even owned a heavy coat. We were without power and heat for 9 days. That was quite a welcome to KC!
------------------------
Linda,

9 days! That is tough.

Gary

Posted by: Linda Lewis at October 22, 2006 12:07 PM

**************************
Hello Mr. Lezak,
shortly after 12:30 we had some light sleet fall here in Leavenworth.

Are the temps going to go up at all?

Another storm in the near future?
---------------------------
Ben,

I am not surprised you had a few ice pellets today.

It is going to warm up a bit. The next storm tracks way to our north.

Gary

Posted by: Ben Tracy at October 22, 2006 12:39 PM

*****************
I was 12 years old when the October Suprise occured, St. Joe didn't get hit quite as hard as K.C., but we still got it pretty good! I remember it snowing all day long while I was in school and the ground already covered with snow. That evening while it was snowing like crazy I built a snowman with my neighbor and I remember thinking that it was amazing that I was building a snow man before Halloween. The most rememorable moment for me though was eating supper and seeing a FLASH OF LIGHTNING, it was my first and I think my only expierience with thundersnow, that made my day. I remember hearing a few branches falling that night, but not as bad as you guys got it. The only dissapointment that I had was that by daybreak the next day alot of the snow had already melted and school was not cancelled in St. Joe, but it was still an awsome storm, second on my list of winter storms as a child the first being the ice storm of 1994 in St. Joe.
Thanks for the time.
Sorry for the long windedness.
Nick in St. Joe!
-----------------------
Nick,

Maybe we will have a memorable storm this winter season?

Gary

Posted by: Nick Rau at October 22, 2006 12:49 PM

*********************
I remember that storm because we were without power for over 24 hours thanks to some strategically fallen tree branches.
---------------------------------
Marlina,

That isn't has bad as 9 days that one of our bloggers had to experience.

Gary

Posted by: Marlina at October 22, 2006 4:17 PM

*********************
I remember the day very well for a not so good reason. I was driving home after all the snow had fallen, and my car slid into a curb and got stuck. Luckily, my dad lived only a block from me. And I happend to by stuck a few feet from his house. So I walked to his house, and he drove me to my house. We had to wait for the snow to melt a bit, and then there was some minor damage to be fixed.
-----------------------------------------
Kimberly,

At least you didn't get hurt. Driving in snow is rather scary.

Gary

Posted by: Kimberly at October 22, 2006 5:18 PM

*******************************
Gary and crew.

I remember the oct. snow storm quite well, it didn't do anything here. we had a flake or two. but i remember watching the KC stations cover the storm.. at first the stations were treating it like it was a non-event. by afternoon, it was clear that something historic was happening.. and everyone changed the tunes.

speaking of surpises.. it snowed here today.. more of a heavy snow flurry, but it was strange to by walking around outside and see a snow shower drift by.
-------------------------------------
Glen,

Wow, I didn't know a few snow showers had occurred up in northern Missouri. I am still waiting for my first snowflake of the season.

Gary

Posted by: Glen Briggs at October 22, 2006 6:26 PM

************
I know it's a little early but are you seeing any type of storm that could cause something like again. I need an excuse to sleep in.

Thanks ,
Tim
---------------------
Tim,

No big storm like that showing up, but perhaps in a few weeks.

Gary

Posted by: Tim at October 22, 2006 10:49 PM

***************
What do weathermen & terrorists have in common?

Both study the jet stream and celebrate anniversaries.
--------------------------
William,

Somewhat funny.

Gary

Posted by: William at October 23, 2006 12:44 AM

**********************
Hi Gary, I was living in Dallas, TX back then so I unfortunately have no memories of that day. I do have a question regarding the 39 day cycle of that year that you mentioned above. You said that there was a 6-8 inch snow storm on Nov. 30th, 39 days after the surprise storm. What happened 39 days after that at the beginning of January. Was there another snow storm?? Thanks for this awesome outlet for us to use to communicate with you guys.

Mike P
------------------------
Mike,

We just looked it up. Unbelievable! I hadn't studied that year, but 39 days later we had a wet storm with rain and 3 inches of snow around January 8th-9th. Then about 40 days later in February another storm hit. What do you think of that? Fascinating.

Gary

Posted by: Mike P at October 23, 2006 8:21 AM

*****************
Gary-
I have been trying to enter the snowflake contest online all morning and it won't let me. All the fields have been filled and it keeps telling me there is an error. My entry is for 12/10/06 at 6:00 pm. That's exactly how I put it. What am I doing wrong?
----------------------
Susy,

I am not sure what you are doing wrong. Keep trying, or perhaps your entry is already in there.

Gary

Posted by: susy hensler at October 23, 2006 8:29 AM

***********************
84hr 12Z NAM 500vort! Looks like a powerhouse! Doesn't look like enough cold air though for snow...bummer.
-------------------------
Scott,

We must watch this carefully. In 1996 we thought there wasn't enough cold air as well.

Gary

Posted by: Scott at October 23, 2006 10:19 AM

**************
Hello Gary,
Was just wondering what you thought about the system coming in on Wed/Thurs. Just look like rain?
Thank for your time!
Anne
----------------------
Anne,

Probably just rain. Let's see how this develops.

Gary

Posted by: Anne at October 23, 2006 12:24 PM

***************
I remember an ice storm of somewhat in 1994. I was a senior and had just bought my very first new to me car that was only 3 years old. 2 days later had an ice storm and on the way home I rear ended another car. In my new car. No damage done thankfully, but at school several days later we were all laughing about it since I hit one of my good friends in his moms car.
---------------------------
Keri,

Hopefully no collisions this winter.

Gary

Posted by: Keri Worley at October 23, 2006 1:21 PM

*********************
I remember that day quite well. I was at work when it started snowing. I ended up getting a ride home with one of my brothers. It took us awhile to get home that evening. I remember trying to reach other family members via my cell phone and could not get thru because all circuits were busy. As we drove from downtown to Raytown, we saw a lot of dark areas. We stopped at my brothers' hoouse first. His power was out. Then, we got my parents and my home, the power was out. Our power was out until around 1 PM the next day.

Kristi
-------------------
Kristi,

Thanks for the memories!

Gary

Posted by: Kristi at October 23, 2006 6:31 PM

 
 

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