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Gary thanks for the weather report. I am thankful changes are coming despite all the talk of El Nino by other national and local meteorologists. I am looking forward to your part two of weather changes. I take it that what you have pointed to is the fact that when that huge ridge formed last fall, was it October, that it did not allow massive storm systems and fronts to make it our way most of the time. So what I think I hear you saying is that ridge did not build
back which might give us a more active fall and winter season and a chance a a more normal winter. I believe that is what I am reading from you and others on the blog. Keep up the good work. Thanks, Michael
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Michael,

I will have part 2 in a few days. The thing to keep in mind is that the weather pattern is evolving now. So, we don't know where the ridges and troughs will be this winter. But, we will have a very strong indication within four weeks.

Gary

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I will limit my comments until next month, and need to figure out how to better communicate what I think I see, and learn more about what I don't. I think I see a frontal pattern. Even in the above..its consistant. How it impacts our region is not consistent, but still present. I just wish I could comment with pics...would be soooo much easier. Alas..I have spent too much energy on this analysis. I believe it, and I guess that is all that counts...LOL
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Scott,

Maybe you have something, but do you see how massively the pattern is changing right now. It is so massive that whatever you thought was cycling must have ended as of now.

Gary

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Quick question.... how do I submit a pet picture for your pet pics site?
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Katie,

You can just email it to me at lezak@nbcactionnews.com. We have a lot in our file so it could be a while.

Gary

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Snowflake contest...per the rules "All entries must be received by Saturday, November 12th, 2006." What if it snows before that? Kinda like asking when the first severe storm will be in April...LOL
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Scott,

If it ends early then it will go to the earliest entry. In 1996 it would have ended on October 22nd when 6 to 8 inches surprised everyone. Wow, that was a great storm. I would wait until around November 12th to enter. We will know so much more by then, but if I feel like there is a chance coming up then we may cut off the entries 24 hours before that day!

Gary

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I see that you've increased the chance of rain Tuesday/Wednesday to 100%. How do you forecast so accurately during a chaotic time of the year? Per your theory things are, for lack of a better term, insane this time of year with the weather pattern in a chaotic transition. Even though nothing is guaranteed at this point you still managed to get a pretty good idea of what the weather is going to do a week out. How do you do it? Plus, do you feel like crying during October since nothing is stable or do you relish the challenge this time of year presents?
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Shawn,

There is a significant difference between our forecasting techniques and most others. It is very difficult to explain, but we just live and breath weather more than most. It isn't something that I learned. I just know and for this reason alone my forecast will be different and more accurate.

October is actually the most exciting time for us because of my theory. Unfortunately it can be devestating. Last year in early November we pretty much knew we were doomed to have a boring and unsatisfying weather pattern. But, if it is an exciting one, then we will know that it will be exciting all the way into summer. So, let's hope!

Gary

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I see the changes..the canadian ridge is wicked...but I still see the fronts and the pattern, just the ridges and troughs move them a bit. I will wait a week and see if I can still see it. I bet I will.
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Scott,

The fronts are caused by the upper level patterns. So, with this new pattern the fronts will be very different.

Gary

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My favorite time of year happens to be October/November with a side of December. I love the changes that fall brings and the transition into chilly weather. Your weather theory gives me hope that this last year will be an exception, not the rule. Just another reason to love this time of year I suppose.

Next year or the year after will be different however. If this year is great I may be saddened come next October.
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Shawn,

Don't over analyze! Have a great fall!

Gary

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168 hrs is when the Alaskan Low presents itself and adding 3-5 days for arrival would be the end/beginning of the next cycle.

I agree, this is behaving differently, as the past 2 times, this brought a blast of cold air..this time..its hitting quite a bit earlier. But..the front is still there, just weaker and farther north. I will quit blogging about this...until we are for sure the GRC is here. I will go back and see then if my pattern died. I wish I had time to focus on this full time, as this is very interesting stuff to me.... ;-)
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Scott,

Everything is so different now. But, I do understand what you are saying. Last year, I trace the beginning of the GRC to around October 8th. So, we have gone past this date and as my theory states it is between October 10th and November 10th that the pattern sets up and shows itself. It is happening, but we are at the very beginning.

Gary

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Gary,
This weather pattern is already showing some signs of being much different than last year. Looking at the 500mb charts their seems to be a cross-polar connection developing in Canada. The Aleutian low is backing farther West and is allowing the colder air to move much further south than at the same time period last year. And, with the El Nino influence their will be an increase in the subtropical jet in the southwest. This developing pattern looks more exciting than almost anything I saw on the models last fall/winter.
Devin
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Devin,

I agree, but it isn't what the computer models show. It is what actually happens from day to day. So, let's see if we are still very excited about this new pattern in a few days and weeks. And, the characteristics of El Nino may surprise you. We must see how the pattern sets up and then make some minor adjustments to how El Nino may influence it.

Gary

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I'm ready for the big cool blast! I just have one question, after seeing that big ampified ridge I had a thought, can one of those ridges get so amplified that they can cut off into a cut-off high? like dips in the jet can cut off into cut-off lows? Just curious.
Thanks for your time, Nick in St. Joe!
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Nick,

Yes! The ridges can get amplified enough to close off a high. Once the closed off high forms way up north it almost always retrogresses back to the west. It can create some really exciting weather patterns.

Gary

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Gary,Jamie,Brett and Jeff..

I just feel like letting off a little steam on something about el nino. Remember how the 2004-2005 el nino was one of the strongest in recent memory? Think back to what our winter was like then, rather quiet. Go back to the 1997-1998 el nino.. I remember 2 pronounced snowstorms that year, One across Western Kansas that was historical in October and another in early March of 1998. The rest of the winter was fairly dull. And finally, go back to the 1982-83 el nino. That December was the coldest ever across much of Kansas... What does this all prove? Not a thing, I think it may hint we can get stronger storms off the Pacific, but notice all 3 of these examples are quite different each other temperaturewise. I believe this proves there are more things to watch then just el nino and Gary you are right about that!

Jon
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Jon,

The strong El Nino was in the 1997-1998 winter. 2004-2005 was really more of a neutral year. And you are right. Something bigger, much bigger than El Nino is going on. We will talk about it more in the coming weeks.

Gary