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Hello Mr. Lezak,
So for us to get the mix of precipitation the storm system would have to come in after the cold air, which would then be Saturday night. Is this true?
As of right now does it look like the storm will come first or the cold air?
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Ben,

Not necessarily. If the storm were compact, more like an upper low, then we would have a comma cloud formation. If the system passes by south of you then it snows almost every time at this time of the year. The problems are, 1, the storm may go across Iowa, and 2, it may not be compact at all. This is what we will look for on the new data. If it shears out then we get only a sprinkle or two. This is why I talked about the range of possibilities.

Have a great day.

Gary

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Gary,
I don't care how long your post would be. I would be fascinated to read it. Keep up the good work.
Derek
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Derek,

I may make a short posting on a comparison, but a talk with the bloggers seems a better way to do it.

Gary

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You should have like a online weather "school
". Hope for snow soon. As I said earlier, but of course I can't get snow days because I'm Homeschooled.:(
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Andrew,

No snow days anytime soon, so don't worry about those others who would get the day off.

Gary

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Gary - I send your blogs to my father in Nebraska as we both believe that you are the best forecaster. I would love it if you had a talk about your weather pattern. Can't wait to see when that will be. Mark
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Mark,

I will think about having a GRC blogger talk sometime soon. Say hello to dad in Nebraska.

Gary

***************
Gary, the 5A and 6A high school cross country regionals are slated for SM Park Saturday morning. Any additional detail you can give on the weather between 8am and 1pm would help a lot of young runners prepare as they all try to qualify for the state meet in Lawrence next week. Thanks for any info AND for always being the best forecast station on the air...ANYWHERE!
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Sue,

Thank you so much! We will try to go into detail either tonight or Friday on the air. If I have confidence in the new data we will try for tonight. Good luck!

Gary

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Gary,
I think a talk about the pattern would be great! I really love reading this everyday and laugh everytime I read the exchanges between you and Scott. I know I've been reading this too much... when last night I dreamt about the GRC and lesser known SMC. AUUGGHH>>!! :)

Did I miss a post from Dog? I live in his neighborhood and would like to know how much rain we got this past week.

Keep up the good work!
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Rachel,

Dog came in with around 1.5 inches of rain. I wish I would have had that much. I had 0.94" in Overland Park and need a bit more as my pond is still low.

Gary

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I bet you would get a great response if you had an open house night for bloggers!
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Marlina,

We may do it! And I need to recruit some weather spotters anyway.

Gary

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I bet you would get a HUGE response for a GRC talk! I wouldn't miss it!
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Sara,

I am considering doing this, but it may be in a few weeks.

Gary

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Hello Gary,
I was wondering if you were talking sleet, and or snowflakes here in the metro or up towards the Iowa border.What is your gut feel.
Thank for your time,
Anne
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Anne,

There is a very slim chance here, but at this moment I am waiting until I see some clear evidence of it. Northern Iowa is the most likely spot for any winter precip. It could end up closer though?

Gary

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Gary,

Could you do a Winter Forecast Special on the Weather Plus HD channel? I'd watch it I am very interested in learning more about your theory.
--------------------------------
Doug,

Good idea. I doubt we could accomplish doing a special, but I will go into details on the theory and winter forecast as we move into November.

Gary

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Isn't Nov 9 too early to make a winter forecast? We won't have gone through one full cycle yet.
--------------------------------
Rob,

Yes! It is too early in some respects. If I could wait until around December 10th or so I could make a more confident prediction. I always issue it around November 10th for a reason. I believe the weather pattern is cycling by this time, and I believe strongly that the pattern is stuck, in other words there is a way to find out where the main features are located. Once you identify these main features, then you can come up with the initial forecast. But, we do no so much more weeks later. Last year we updated the winter forecast in December, and I should have just left it alone as our initial impression was actually more correct.

Gary

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Gary...

You showed the GFS run for today but what does the NAM show? Also I am going to Fort Dodge Iowa this evening through Sunday. How are my chances for snow up there?

Thanks

Matt Maisch
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Matt,

It is very tricky. I haven't liked the way the NAM is handling this system, so this is why I chose the GFS.

Gary

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Gary,
I am in for the blogger meeting. You knew I would be. I am also a trained spotter, fyi.

Wow..the SMC has made it to dream state..awesome!

As far as snow...I am too busy to go back through the blogs, but I believe earlier this month, I predicted snow after this front, and into the next week. [Ask Jamie...I bet she remembers] Ahhh..the SMC..dead, but not forgotten!

I think what you see now in the patterns is going to be the predominant feature. I think we will generally see the ULL over Central/E.Central Canada with the Pacific high ridge. I think the only exception will be a recurring trough building and retreating off the coast of CA. That will only be one small part of the GRC however. I think we will have the vorticity to have an exciting GRC this year..but I wonder about getting the moisture up from the Gulf to supplement for precip. El Nino may influence the influx of precip..but not the GRC.

If you invite us bloggers to the station..some of us might not leave...LOL
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Scott,

I remember your forecast and posting, but the pattern is completely different and evolving. Sometimes it feels good to be right for the wrong reason, not that you are right. Your not!

The bloggers would have to leave immediately when the bell rings.

Gary

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How about taping it so we can play the video on this blog or from the weather page?
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Ivan,

Not a bad idea!

Gary

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HEY GARY, THANKS FOR LAST WEEKENDS FORECAST IM A SOFTBALL TOURNEMENT DIRECTOR AND I CHANGED MY SCHEDULE TO ALL SATURDAY GAMES , YOU SAVED MY TOURNEY, I HAVE ONE LAST TOURNEY THE LAST WEEKEND OF OCTOBER, THIS IS THE BIGGEST OF THE FALL I NEED TO KNOW HOW THE WEATHER WELL BE FOR 10/28 AND 29 SO I CAN MAKE ADJUSTMENTS THANKS AGAIN CRAIG HARVEY
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Craig,

Let's look at it next week, and thanks!

Gary

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Gary,

I have recently moved back to the Quad-Cities (Iowa) from Kansas City but I still resort back to your forecast. I am especially waiting for your winter forecast. It is hard finding a weatherman as reliable as you were. I hope all is well and I will continue to read and comment on the weather blog. Keep up the great work! Bring on the snow! I am anxiously awaiting November 9th. Thanks Gary!
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Brent,

Thanks for staying in touch!

Gary

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Hi Gary,
I like the idea of an open house, too. could be alot of fun.

Say... once you have your weather pattern down and presented on the 9th, how difficult would it be to do a long range forecast into the spring (April, May) and predict when we would most likely hit the mid-70s? Is that just too far out even given your cycling of "X" number of days?

Thanks! - mt
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Mike,

I will wait to project out into the spring until the first cycle is completed. Confidence grows in our weather pattern and some adjustments are made. Then, we can project out with some potential accuracy. It could take until January or so.

Gary

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Gary, I am in Shawnee and would love to be a weather spotter. I would really look forward to some type of "weather talk". If you need someone in the Shawnee area, just let me know what I need to do! Jon.
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Jon,

If we have this blogger/spotters meeting then we can sign you up then.

Gary

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I definitely agree, I think you should do a presentation for us bloggers about the weather pattern. I would like to see examples of the pattern that set up last year repeat itself throughout the months. Not that I don't believe you of course, it just would be interesting to see it all cycle through. And be sure not to schedule it for early-mid January, that's when my baby's due! Wouldn't want to miss it!
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Koyuki,

If we do it I will try for a November or early December date.

Gary

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Gary...i would love to see an open house for bloggers so we could sit with you and learn more about your weather theory. also, just out of curiousity, in the early Spring when they have the weather spotter trainings in different counties, i never see one for Johnson County, KS. Any idea why not? I would love to be a weather spotter
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Jennifer,

They do have two of them for Johnson county, KS. We will let you know when they will be held.

Gary

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Mr Lezak,

I was trying to find out where to go to put in a guess in the Snowflake Contest? I wanted to put December 7th at 10:30 a.m.

Thanks
----------------
Jennifer,

You have to do it officially on our website. You will see it on the left after you click on weather.

Good luck.

Gary

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Hey Gary,

A talk would be great. I hope Saturday morning and early afternoon is clear. This is Maple Leaf Weekend here in Baldwin City. Could you please tell the weather to hold off for a couple of hours :)? Have a great day.
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Ryan,

It may. We have to really work hard on holding this storm off.

Gary

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Be great for most of the bloggers but I"m in Central Kansas so that wouldnt make it so easy for me. I dont even get KSHB on the TV here, we get another KC station and a Topeka station and the Wichita stations. Its one reason I am very happy you have NBC Action WeatherPlus online! I enjoy the Wichita stations coverage of severe weather alot, but think your station is the best at identifying patterns and trends in long range weather.
----------------
Jon,

Thanks! At least you have a way of seeing our weather forecasts!

Gary

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Gary - if one moment the pattern looks good and the next not, perhaps what WILL happen is a pattern not as good as we'd like, but not as bad as last year - split the difference.

Dog
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Dog,

Maybe, but it always worries me when it begins acting strange. Will the pattern be able to create real storm systems where a storm forms and we can set up warm fronts to our south and we have long duration rains, or will it again have troubles. This is what I am trying to figure out, but I will take the middle ground if there is one.

Gary

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Gary - a talk with the bloggers would be a real treat - Keep up the great work

Tom
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Tom,

We will let you know if we are going to do it. Have a great weekend.

Gary

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Gary,
Is your confidence fairly high for a widespread frost/freeze early next week? Some areas closer in to the city have not gotten below 33F so far this fall.
Some of the computer models have been showing wide variability this time of year. I am not believing anything they say after day 5.
Devin
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Devin,

It appears we could have a widespread freeze and frost Monday or Tuesday morning.

Gary

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Good grief! What is that at 228hr on the 500 18z GFS vort? A MONSTER! Oct 29th 10PM will be my snowflake entry. [Can't get it to work...grrrrrr]
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Scott,

You have modelitis tonight. But, the trend in the models is quite interesting and hopefully continues. We are up to 4 straight GFS runs of excitement. Last year we could get three exciting long range runs in a row and then poof back to the bad pattern. Maybe not this year.

Gary

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I guess the phrase "ends justify the means" doesn't apply in science. Sure, the SMC petered out before I expected, but lets not forget...something existed, where no one thought there was a pattern before. I remember seeing alot of "its just chaos etc...etc..." Maybe. Maybe a pattern too.

Sometimes, you can be right for the wrong reason...it is using your gut feeling, and not models or cycles...

Sure seems like alot of bloggers, Gary...how many people are you targeting for the meeting?
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Scott,

If we do the meeting I would likely have people register and then I will contact those people for invitation only to make sure we have a count on how many there will be.

The SMC is something I already knew about. All you are talking about is some cycling in the transition period between August and October. I have already seen this, but I believe it is "chaotic transition" so the organization is tough to pin down as every week is gradually shifting.

Gary

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Wow, just when I think you couldn't make the meteoroligical experience better you think of a way! The meeting is a GREAT idea, if I could get to K.C. and get the day off work I would like to come, it would also be neat to meet the other bloggers too!
Thanks for your time.
Nick in St. Joe!
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Nick,

I agree. A meeting is a good idea especially if I can share my theory in a more extensive way with all of you. Plus you could see the television station.

Gary

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gary and crew,
i think an openhouse would be a great idea, lets just hope us "out of towners" can make it. i hope the email i sent you this evening gave you a few good ideas to consider.
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Glen,

I didn't see the email last night. I will look for it when I get into work today. I get a lot of emails, so it could be sitting in there.

Gary

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Gary - Dog here - If anyone wants to see a fantasy storm, look at the GFS for Oct 28-29th - IF that were to ACTUALLY occur, it would be one heck of a storm system - blizzard for Nebraska, NW Iowa, some solid rain for us, but as all long range progs go, it is HIGHLY suspect. Still, looks good on paper or computer screens. This was the run of 18Z I think, but I can't recall exactly now.

Later,
Dog
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StormDog,

Maybe, just maybe, the pattern will be great this next year. But, it is still early. As of Wednesday the models were not so good. But, there has been a nice trend to what they were looking like last week. The October 28th, 29th storm is nice to look at. Let's see how it trends as I want to fill up my pond.

Gary

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Gary,

HAve you looked at the newest data?! it seems to me that we will see SNOW here in the metro this weekend. Am i reading it right? I want to kno what you think about the new data.
Thanks
Andy
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Andy,

It will be cold enough to snow by sometime Saturday night, but it can't snow if there is no precipitation. And, at this moment it appears the rain will be out of here by the time it is cold enough. Something to watch though.

Gary