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Something to watch
Happy Tuesday!
The next few days and beyond are very tricky. We start with today. Will the sky clear? Probably not. This is no surprise to me, but I may have made the wrong call last night by going for 74 degrees and the clouds breaking up. It may still happen. Believe it or not, forecasting cloud cover is more difficult than forecasting snow.
Now, look below at the two maps.
Click to enlarge (500 mb flow, 18,000 feet up, valid Wednesday at 7 PM)
Click to enlarge (Surface valid Thursday at 7 PM)
The NAM (WRF) model has been trending towards us having a storm on Thursday. On the upper level map can you see the deepening of the flow just south of 4 corners. An upper low is trying to develop and as a result it is causing the surface flow to create a weakening in the surface ridge and a weak storm forms over Missouri by Thursday. If this trend continues then it will be cloudy Thursday with rain around. I am leaning heavily in this direction since this is related to what happened last night. If you missed it an organized area of rain developed right over and just east of Kansas City during the evening. The Thursday system is similar to this and I always buy a solution that is similar to something that just happened already. Now, a little stronger and we will have an exciting day Thursday. A little weaker and then there is nothing but a few clouds. So, let's watch the trends. Can you imagine if it were cold enough to snow. We would be talking about accumulations or sunshine. We don't have to be concerned with this scenario yet. But soon? The GFS just came out and doesn't quite do it and thus there would be no chance of that Thursday storm if you believe this model. We will see how the new data trends this afternoon.
Then there are big challenges this weekend and in the developing pattern. It is getting interesting.
Have a great day. I will try to answer any questions you may have later today. Stormy and I are going to a school today. I doubt I will bring Breezy as she has a phobia over the kids.
Gary
Posted by at October 17, 2006 10:25 AM
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I hope it snows soon! (White Thanksgiving and Christmas would be nice).
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Andrew,
A white Thanksgiving, Christmas, and December sounds great to me. But, we may be asking for way too much.
Gary
Posted by: Andrew at October 17, 2006 10:57 AM
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The SMC did live. Its dead now, but only as the GRC is starting to set up. I wonder if the SMC lives in that choatic period between Summer and the GRC. I think it might. I will have to keep an eye on it in future years. Would that fold into the GRC as "pre GRC" or I guess it should be its own entity.
This is going to be a fun winter....I feel it.
And to answer the other blog entry...I am along for the ride on the GRC, though this year, I would like more details as to what makes this cycle unique for this year.
;-)
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Scott,
There may have very well been a mini cycle between the two patterns, but not quite what you were describing exactly. But, it is over and now what?
Gary
Posted by: Scott at October 17, 2006 11:17 AM
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Woo hoo for interesting weather. I was really excited watching that rain backbuild yesterday but alas just missed me here in Lawrence. What causes that? I would have thought the atmosphere was about tuckered out after all the rain the past few days and as you said for the past year we've had no luck as the low passed through our area.
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Shawn,
The main upper level storm went through us and we just missed the comma cloud development, well, some of us got it just east of here. It built westward in response to the circulation moving through.
Gary
Posted by: Shawn at October 17, 2006 1:11 PM
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Gary,
Have you looked at the NAM 60hr forecast? it has temperatures cold enough for snow. and it shows around .35" of precip. do you have any thoughts on this development. And do you have any new thoughts on the new pattern?
thanks
Andy
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Andy,
The only way is if an upper low were to track into Kansas. It is something to watch on the new data.
Gary
Posted by: Andy at October 17, 2006 1:30 PM
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Hey Gary, Just wondering what your thoughts are about the NOAA Winter forecast that came out today. It calls for most of the country to be warmer than normal and we are close to the dry slot. They, of course, believe this because of El Nino and its effects on the pattern.
I cant wait till your winter forecast after the pattern sets up.
Thanks, Joe
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Joe,
I believe that El Nino only influences the pattern that develops. The NWS forecast came out before our weather pattern has even formed so how does it even have more than a 50% chance of being right?
Gary
Posted by: joe at October 17, 2006 2:25 PM
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Why does the "Today's Forecast" link not get updated daily as it should. It is usually on the same day for days and days. Like today, it is still on Saturday, and over the weekend it was on Tuesday of last week.
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Kimberly,
We are lazy! And, we won't be in the future. It isn't one that we use on the air so sometimes we just forget to make it. Jeff Penner is making one right now for tomorrow.
Gary
Posted by: Kimberly at October 17, 2006 2:44 PM
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How does Saturday morning and early afternoon look?
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Ryan,
A disturbance is moving by about that time, but let's see how we feel tomorrow.
Gary
Posted by: Ryan at October 17, 2006 2:49 PM
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Gary, what do you mean by saying " Its getting interesting "? Are you seeing something that us SNOW LOVERS would like?
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Matt,
You can tell when I'm thinking of something can't you? Well, not much chance yet, but at this time of the year with the pattern we are in at the moment we must watch closely.
Gary
Posted by: Matt at October 17, 2006 5:43 PM
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I missed your 5 and 6:00 forecast. I noticed you didn't have a % of rain for tomorrow, Is tomorrow going to be drizzle?
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Shannon,
More or less....yes. But we think drizzle is likely!!! We could have put 100% on there but since we think it may be a few hundreths or less we thought it better to leave the percentage off.
Gary
Posted by: Shannon at October 17, 2006 7:04 PM
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Gary,
I seen this weather program on the television that stated that the weather in the past couple thousand years has been dull compared to what the weather has been in the rest of the earth's history. In other words, they are saying that compared to past records that the earth's weather should be in total chaos. What is your take on that?
Have a good day!
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Richard,
I do believe that the weather is in chaos, but there is some organization to it. Maybe the next few years can go back to the wildness of the past.
Gary
Posted by: Richard R. at October 17, 2006 9:18 PM
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bring on the snow!
i checked up in iowa. and NWS FO out of iowa have put a 30% chance of snow right down the border with MO for sat. night, maybe we will get lucky and see a flake or two.
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Glen,
It is something that I know you know I am monitoring very closely. It will be cold enough to snow here by Saturday afternoon or evening as well, but I just don't see much of a chance for precipitation once it is cold enough. A little change here or there though and we may have a few snowflakes too. I am waiting at least another few hours to look at more data as I just am not sure. Even Iowa is a bit tricky. Our first chance of snow could be days or possibly weeks away. It is normal to have a few snowflakes sometime in October or early November, but a bit unusual to have measurable snow. We did have the huge October Surprise 10 years ago on October 22, 1996 so we know it can happen.
Gary
Posted by: glen briggs at October 17, 2006 9:50 PM
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Gary and team,
Is there a website for the two maps you have above that the public can look at? I have tried to find them on the internet with no luck.
Thanks.
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Keri,
This is one of the best websites for the data I like to look at. The data comes in at 4 different times every day. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
Gary
Posted by: Keri Worley at October 18, 2006 12:24 AM
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