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Gary and the rest of the KSHB weather team,I agree with your expertise and look forward in reading your part two. Also look forward in receiving your winter forecast. I find it interesting that you are very scientific in forecasting, not that other meteorologists aren't, but it seems to me that your forecasts are right on! There used to be a meteorologist in Wichita, who is now retired, who would love the winter. My favorite time of the year because of the weather changes is now and going into the winter season. Keep up the good work. Michael
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Michael,

My favorite season is really the same as yours, sort of mid fall through early spring.

Thanks for the kind comments. At least you know that our winter forecast is actually based on something other than just feeling.

Gary

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Exciting. I don't really know what else to say. I wish I knew what made you say path # 2 versus the models but I know you can't give away all your secrets. I hope for the rain but it cannot happen no Saturday, Tuesday or Thursday. Those are basketball nights.
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Shawn,

It will be dry Saturday!

Gary

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How accurate can a 7-day forecast be? The forecast high for next Tuesday ranges from 57 to 76 for the 4 local stations. If confidence for such a long range is low, why do all stations just stick with 4-day forecast instead of 7? It's hard for me to look at a long range forecast seriously!
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Ivan,

I would suggest sticking to our forecast and not look at that spread! But, more importantly, you have to look at the 7 day forecast in an interesting way. Days 1 through 3 can be pretty much relied on to be fairly close on temperatures (at least our forecast is). Then, days 4 through 7 are looked at differently. If we have snow forecast on day 5, for example. But, it ends up snowing on day 6 in the verification are we wrong? I say no. Moving a forecast by one day that far away happens all the time. So, you should look at the longer range as a trend. We could have 75 forecast for day 5 and then 45 on day 6. But, as it approaches our forecast is still a good one but everything slows down by 24 hours. So, the 45 degree forecast could end up 75 and look like it is 30 degrees off, but then the next day it is 45. Does this make sense?

And, viewers want an idea of what may happen 7 days out.

Gary

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I like what I'm hearing! Finally, we could see some exciting weather.
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Marlina,

Yes, but it is still too early!

Gary

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Yikes Gary!! We need the rain for sure but I hope the sunday rain holds off until sunday evening. I do not want it to rain on the Arts and Craft Fair in Mound City Kansas. That would be a muddy mess for us.
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Monica,

Don't worry about it yet. One computer model has the rain and one doesn't.

Gary

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I am at a loss for words..it is soo beautiful. My BIG FRONT will be here on time, and on schedule. "AKA KICKER" I won't site my cycle again, as I am sure everyone is tired of it. But...its not gone, and not wrong, as the maps keep proving it time and time again. The piece that will be most interesting..and a part of my cycle will to see the ridging after the front build in and raise temps up higher again. Check end of next week into next weekend for rising temps. This weekend, I will discuss the next piece at 84 hrs [for those who want to read ahead, see my blog on Sept 27th and Oct. 3rd]. I have taken a sneak peek at the models...on target.

Oh..btw...the "kicker" will push the rogue on path 1. It is that strong. Don't underestimate it..it is the one that ended summer. ;-)

I would get my theory peer reviewed, but I don't think my neighbors care. LOL
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Scott,

I have all of the 500 mb charts of the past 40 days in a slide show and whatever the SMC was is now long gone. Something happened within the past 10 days that wiped it out.

Now, if you get the neighbors approval, at least two of them, then I will reconsider. LOL

Gary

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Hi! Weather team, I was wandering what you meant by kickers. I'm hoping for at least some measurable rain. We are so dry. There is no water in the streams or ponds. It is really bad. I hope for good news. Thank you for the great work you do.
-----------------------------
Lisa,

I am hoping for more rain as well. The latest data continues to have two different solutions. Let's hope the wet one wins.

Gary

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Gary..I am not as sophisticated as you all regarding the usage of the many maps to verify cycles. I am using the 500/1000 MSLP GFS. I am doing this for a different reason. I am not tracking longwaves, shortwaves, sidewaves or upwaves, [Willy Wonka humor] but I am just tracking fronts. So..throw out your 500vorts for tracking my cycle. Look back at the dates in your blogs I reference, and tell me that the same type of fronts on certain intervals are not still coming through.

BTW...Neighbor #1's 6yr old son is in full agreement of my cycle!

Isn't this fun?
----------------------------
Scott,

I forgot to tell you that if you got someone under 10 to endorse the SMC then it would be disqualified forever. So, the SMC will live in your mind now forever. LOL

Gary

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I noticed the deadline for the snowflake contest is November 12. You say "winter forecast unveiled on November 9th or so". I hope "or so" means before November 12, I want to hear your winter forecast before I make my prediction!
---------------------------------
Koyuki,

It is likely going to be on Thursday night, November 9th. But, what happens if it snows one inch before the 12th, then you will not get to be part of the contest. Just kidding, I doubt it will snow that early, but then again it has happened before.

Gary

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Secondary thought to follow up. Your comment indicates that the SMC DID EXIST, if it died 10 days ago. Now..how does that work into the leadup to the GRC where you said there was no cycle until the GRC? I still don't think its dead yet, but we now BOTH agree [and Jamie too!] that there was something to the SMC. And why was it so hard to get concensus?

Ahh..the trials and tribulations of getting someone to buy into a theory...its a full time job!

;-)
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Scott,

I said "whatever the SMC was". This doesn't say it ever existed, or that it was a cycle.

Gary

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Gary..shame. If it didn't exist, it could not have died. I think I would have a better chance getting a tour of Area 51 then having you agree with me on this. LOL...even though..I think Jamie admitted in an early blog seeing a cycle.
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Scott,

I will have a talk with Jamie in the morning. LOL

Gary
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SCOTT:
I do see the pattern you describe. I mean, you are telling us dates and features and I SEE that. BUT I am not sure it's an ORGANIZED thing... so much as this IS fall and cold fronts are always coming through. Plus, I think your big cold front already came through... ahead of schedule... and that's why it's SO COLD now.
Jamie

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Do you know what's going on in Buffalo,NY right now! They are having their earliest lake effect snow warning ever with over 80,000 people w/o power due to falling tree limbs from the snow.(Sound familiar to you?)
Nick in St. Joe!
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Wow,

We just looked up Buffalo and they are having extremely heavy THUNDERSNOW! Man, I wish I was there.

Gary

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Gary, I know you can't tell anyone your winter forcast becuase you are not yet sure of what it will be. What I do need to know is if you think we will at least have a better winter (much more snow) then last year. I would love to have a bunch of snow and just enjoy a possible white Christmas. What is your thought? Thank you
-------------------------
Danielle,

It is just way too early to tell. We have another three weeks of very important data that has not even happened yet. It isn't what the computer models say, but actually what happens across the northern hemisphere that counts. So, we must be patient.

Gary

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wow... you guys (gary and scott) are having much fun with the forecasting models! i'm enjoying this immensely! alot of it is lost on me, tho' i'm learning more all of the time.

gary, team - you guys are the best. keep up the good work. i've quit monitoring the other stations for comparisons now. why bother!? (oh and... very nice comments you made on behalf of David Lawrence the other evening!) - mike
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Mike,

Thanks for the confidence and kind comments. David Lawrence is having his last moments on the air right now. He will be missed.

Gary

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Jamie,
Love the Buffalo, NY snow!--I'm 45 and I'd love a snowday today! Have a great weekend.
BB

BB:
Thanks for posting... you saved us from having only 13 comments on Friday the 13th! Shwew! :) I am not ready for the snow yet... but I know Gary is! Hopefully this winter will bring you many snowdays!
Jamie

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Hi Jamie
I'm not ready for the snow yet either but I do like the cooler temps.Is Mags ready for the snow????
Have a good Day
Jim

HI, JIM!
I, too, like the cool fall weather, and I am sure that Mags will LOVE it when it snows! She really liked it last year, and she was only 3 months old. I'm not sure if she really remembers it, so it will be fun to see her playing in snow again!
Jamie

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Gary,

I am trying to get my house painted this weekend.. when potentially will the rain arrive on Sunday? I'm hoping it'll hold off till late or miss us alltogether..

Thanks
Tim in GW

TIM:
It is trending south... so it could very well miss us alltogether. If it does rain it could be at any time during the day.
Jamie

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Isn't El Nino was caused the ICE STORM of 2002?

ANDREW:
I wouldn't say it CAUSED the ice storm, but it probably had some influence on it.
Jamie

******************
We did not get down to 32 at the main reporting stations this morning. KCI 33F, and Downtown 33F. The winds stayed up in the higher elevated areas, and the urban heat island did not help things. Lawrence dropped to 22. The overnight low temperature spread between the urban and more rural reporting stations is starting to get out of control.
Devin

DEVIN:
You are right... it's pretty frustrating that ALL the surrounding communities reached freezing excpet for Kansas City and KCI. I believe the Lawrence reporting station is at a lower elevation... which explains why it's usually so much colder.
Jamie

*********************
Hello Mrs. Jarosik,
Leavenworth got just below 28 last night.
The temps came up 7 degrees from around 9-12 last night. But then went back down. I just found that kind of strange.
-------------------------
Ben,

Sometimes even just a patch of clouds can cause the temperature to go up 7 degrees at night. Or, it could have been a mixing west breeze that picked up for a while. But, it is still fascinating.

Gary

****************
I've seen that you have said that the storm is trending south(heart sinks alittle), but what about those other small chances, are they still in play? This is going to be a nervous three weeks for me, I would like to say more but I don't want to jinx anything:)!
Thanks for your time.
Nick in St. Joe!
-----------------------
Nick,

Remember it is more than just one storm and how it tracks. It is the entire weather pattern. But, it would still be nice to get hit by this one.

Gary

**************
Gary and team,

I just saw at the NOAA website for current weather conditions and it shows that in KCI the temperature dropped to 30.9 F this morning for the minimum. Can you check and confirm? Thanks.
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Yes, Mahesh,

The official low will come in at 31 degrees.

Gary

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HEY GARY IM A SOFTBALL TOURNEMENT DIRECTOR HAVING A 100 TEAM TOURNEY THIS WEEKEND , DOES SUNDAY LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT?
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Craig,

Sunday doesn't look like a wash out. It is a strange set up and I can't pin down how long it would rain, but possibly as long as 3 or 4 hours at one time.

Good luck!

Gary