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Three Things to Monitor
#1: A cold front (map 1) will be moving through Wednesday morning, breaking our incredible October heat wave. By the way we set records Sunday & Monday. It was 94 (Record 92 in 1976 & 2002) Sunday & 95 (Record 94 in 1963) Monday! We are going 95 on Tuesday. This will break another record set in 1954 of 93.
#2: It appears the hot weather will make one more return for Friday & Saturday as our current summerlike ridge builds back in (map 2).
#3: There are growing signs of a change for early next week (map 3). A trough now in the western USA is forecasted to move slowly east into the Plains. This trough + a cold front coming in from the north may interact with our very warm & humid airmass. This should give us at least 1-2 days with good rain chances Next Sunday through Tuesday. There are still questions with this change. We will be following this throughout the week.
Map 1, Click to Enlarge
The light blue shade is winds of 15 to 25 knots. In this case they will be blowing from the north, knocking our rare October heat to the south.
Map 2, Click to Enlarge
Map 3, Click to Enlarge
Posted by at October 2, 2006 9:35 PM
Hello Weather team,
The National weather Service has us in a slight risk of Severe storms for tomorrow night.
In your opinion do you think that we will be seeing any strong storms?
A cold front will be moving through late tonight and early Wednesday morning. There will be some potential for a severe thunderstorm and only during a small window between 4 and 8 AM Wednesday. The timing just isn't right, amongst a few other parameters.
Posted by: Ben Tracy at October 2, 2006 10:44 PM
Jeff, thank you for this post. In line with the events detailed in my post on the 27th, you have cleaned up my timeline a bit. I had been mixing formation times vs. arrival times, and it screwed up my time tables. You have cleaned it up for me.
0 hr of cycle - Large cold Front
168 hr of cycle - Ohio Low with blocking/west ridging
168-312 ish..more ridging
312ish wierd shortwave from Sw/trough merging with cold front
500 hr ish - Large Cold front - end cycle
That being said...based on your previous blog, you are expecting the 312 event to be the trigger for the GRC.
Sept 30th - "In about 8-10 days we will see some big changes. It will start with the west coast trough shifting east (see map 2 ). After that anything goes. It is an exciting time of year as the pattern undergoes huge changes. And, it is these changes, this time of year, that will have an affect on our whole winter (Gary's theory)."
I note this, because I think you will be identifying the start of the GRC in the middle of the cycle I have found [think I have found]. This way we can have a point of reference. I think the GRC fingerprint this year will be again the ridging from the SW.
Secondary thought...I am looking deeper at the thermohaline cycle/gyras and how H and L pressures evolve from this in determining factors for atmospheric cycles. There are clearly oceanic cycles - AMO/ENSO, there must be a tie somehow. I will keep researching.
Tomorrow/next day, I will try to forecast the month of November based on my cycle. Both temp and precip timeframes. I will either be an idiot, or who knows.
Last thought..I want to thank all at the weather team. I have learned soooo much in the last year, and I appreciate the forum to remain passionate!
Remember the pattern is changing. A massive change is going on. So, you should consider abandoning your theory and work with me on mine! The pattern that sets up WILL be unique, which means it will have never occurred before. We have almost made it to the defining time.
The GRC may be evolving in its very early stages right now. But, it may not really be getting started until the next week to 10 days.
Posted by: Scott at October 2, 2006 11:08 PM
This pattern next week is also showing some signs of bringing colder air into southern and western areas of Canada. The pattern change might finally stop some of the persistant downsloping that is occuring in the plains region. Is there any chance of a freeze in October this year?
Everything is changing, but it is staying dry.
Posted by: Devin at October 2, 2006 11:52 PM
Gary - Welcome back. We are in another really dry stretch which hopefully will end soon. How far behind are we on precip this month/year? I overseeded and patched up my lawn a couple weeks ago and I have had to water way more than I was hoping for a typical September and October.
We are way below average and over 16 inches below last year. Amazingly dry! Hopefully it will rain later tonight.
Rainfall this year: 23.14
Average by Oct. 3rd: 30.99 (-7.85)
Rainfall by this time last year: 39.47
Posted by: Hank at October 3, 2006 6:47 AM