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We did it! Our first freeze!

Good Friday evening!

The official low dropped to 31 degrees this morning at KCI making today our first freeze, 28 days earlier than last year, but it was close.

A storm is spinning near the Southern California coast. It will begin moving east tonight. As the storm approaches moisture is going to be drawn northward from the Gulf of Mexico and this moisture feed will continue until the "kicker" storm digs into the west and finally moves through around Wednesday. When this second storm moves through we should have a lot of moisture available for some thunderstorms around mid week. And, that second storm will likely create a rather strong cold front.

The upper low that will eject out is being handled very poorly by the models. I don't have a good feel on it yet, thus the term "cut off low, weatherman's woe", or "weatherperson's woe" in respect of all the female weather people. Most models take this upper level storm well south of Kansas City. As it approaches, and even if it goes well to the south, we will likely have at least a nice band of lifting move by. This lifting should create an area of rain on Sunday. There is still some hope that the upper low ejects harder to the north (this is what I will be looking for in the new data) and then we could get a lot of rain. This solution is not supported by any model at this moment and until it starts moving I can't go for it either, but we are still expecting rain on Sunday.

Have a great weekend!

New data is arriving and there is a gradual trend towards a much wetter solution. But, let's see how it sets up. Sunday into Monday could be exciting if this trend continues.

Gary and the NBC Action Weather Team

Posted by at October 13, 2006 4:55 PM