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"This week could be our first dry week since February"

You mean it has rained atleast once evey week since February -- that seems really hard to beleive!
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Hamons,

Yes. Isn't it amazing? 35 weeks in a row it has rained at least once. There was one week in there where we had two traces, which means less than .01" fell that week, but it rained. Every other week was more significant than that. I will have to make a list later this week and go week by week. One week is Sunday to Saturday!

Gary

Gary,

A question for you that may have already been asked -- If the pattern starts around October 10th, and may not complete a cycle until December, how can you do your forecast before one cycle is complete? I know this past year it was 60-62 days, that would mean that you wouldn't know the whole cycle until the middle of December, which obviously would be too late to issue a winter forecast. Since you'll be giving your forecast on Nov 9, does that mean we're in a 30-day or so cycle?

Thanks,
Tim in GW
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Tim,

Great question! And this shows you how complex this really is. Where storm systems intensify and weaken shows up during these 30 days. But, the entire cycle is much bigger than these 30 days. Remember last December 7th, when a snowstorm came out of no where, and it was cold for a few days, very cold? Well, it showed up very clearly in October and I just let it slip by. The cycle is complex, the pattern is complex, but I know I am on to something and my theory does and has worked every year. But, this is why I make the forecast and then worry about it for weeks. In December we know more. By January we know enough to beat every forecast out there from then on. In November, it is a very educated guess.

Gary

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Gary,

i have just looked at the new data, and it is getting pretty exciting in the next week or so. what say you?

thanks
Andy
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Andy,

I agree. It will be fascinating, and hopefully exciting, when the jet stream strengthens during the next few weeks. Where will the energy drop into? I already have an idea and I think it is good. But, it isn't perfect. Let's see what happens during the next two weeks.

Gary

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Gary, I can't wait to hear your winter forecast. Hopefully there is some snow included. I am going up to Lincoln, NE this weekend for the Missouri/Nebraska football game. Should I plan on taking a poncho and winter coat or will the sunglasses and a light jacket be a better alternative.
Mark
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Mark,

It looks like sunglasses to me.

Gary

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Gary,
If the current weather pattern for the winter is already set, then how will the strengthening El Nino impact the set pattern. Could it result in a stronger sub-tropical jet stream, or warmer air in Western Canada because of a strong jet stream leading to downslope winds. When I look at the SST anomaly animations I see that the area of above normal SSTs has grown in the Central Pacific. That is not a good sign. However, this new GRC pattern does look exciting compared to last year.
Devin
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.shtml
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Devin,

El Nino only has a minor impact. I believe it is way overblown by other meteorologists. It will very likely help create the stronger southern jet stream, but only in the areas where the GRC indicates where the troughs will be. This is why every El Nino brings different results.

Gary

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Will have to be patient and wait for the details of the winter forecast. Can you give any clues? I guess what I'm most interested in is do you think the year ahead will be improved over the last year (by improved I mean stormier and wetter)? It seems like this wouldn't take much, given the previous years horrible pattern...

Thanks
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Doug,

I can't imagine it being any worse, and if there is any clue I can give you it is that I am leaning heavily in the direction of stormier and colder than last year. But, how much? This is what I am trying to figure out.

Gary

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Gary I hope your theory shows at least more winter than we have had in the past 5-8 years. By the way another meteorologist here in Topeka likes your theories. Keep up the good work. By the way this kinda goes back to Farmer's Almanac thinking, but our huge Pin Oak in our backyarddropped the most acorns ever for the squirrels according to our neighbor who has lived in Berryton for 20 years. We both believe it will be a more exciting winter. Take care, Michael
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Michael,

Let's hope it is a better winter than the past decade or so. I will have a better idea within a few days.

Gary

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Hi Gary,
I am pumped we are only 10 days away from your winter forecast. I can hardly wait. I have a question regarding the data you analyze when researching your pattern. What parameters are most important, 500mb flow, mslp, jet stream, etc? I would like to follow along myself this season watching the different models and seeing if I can see the specific day pattern you announce. Thanks for the forum!
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Mike P,

I use 500 mb maps. Watch the flow at 500 mb and see where storm systems are strengthening and weakening. It is not as easy as just one or two troughs or ridges. It is very complex. Then, the cycle is even tougher.

Gary

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Gary, I am still keeping up with KC weather even though I moved to Seattle. I check out your blog site everyday. Am excited about your winter forecast. Can I apply the cycle to the weather here? Obviously not for snow, but storms in general?
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Barbara,

Yes, you can apply it to Seattle as well. Keep reading the blog!

Gary

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"Well, we have a system and it involves some scientific, but secretive techniques that I can’t disclose at this time. "

When will you be disclosing the details of this theory so it can be reviewed by your peers?
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Jake,

I was sort of kidding on the secretive part. I am pretty much laying it out on the table. But, there are a few ways to figure out where the location of the main features are but difficult to explain.

Gary

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Gary,
The GFS has been very consistent about developing a stormy pattern in the Eastern Pacific and the Gulf of Alaska. I hope this trend does not continue because we will be very warm or above average after this cold front. Do you believe that November temperatures will be above average?
Devin
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Devin,

Watch the GFS carefully. It doesn't know the weather pattern. Every day it changes. I know what you are talking about, but once we know the pattern we will know what fits and what doesn't fit. Right now I am beginning to believe that the off the west coast trough does NOT fit. If a trough forms there it will rapidly move out as it just doesn't belong there. So, let's see how it evolves.

Gary

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Cool, I think I can see the cold front on the radar.. is the wind going to be really rough tonight?
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Dave,

It may gust over 30 mph, but that should be all.

Gary

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Wow, I was impressed with that cold front, we had strong SW winds all day long, then they quit and shifted to the NW at around 5 P.M. or so, then they really blasted pretty strong! At the same time the sun was setting and there were streaks of virga being back lit by the setting sun. Combine the two and it was a pretty interesting evening.
Thanks for your time.
Nick in St. Joe!
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Nick,

It was an interesting evening. Now, let's hope it gets even more exciting next week.

Gary