This sounds hopeful. I would love to have a more exciting pattern in the next few weeks.

You know the weather is boring when you start getting sniped by other meteoroligists in the area... allright, I won't bring that up again after this comment. :)

I'm really hoping October 25th is a gigantic snow storm so that at the middle of every pattern I will be pleased with snowfall.

I know it doesn't work that way... but can't a man dream?
--------------------------------
Shawn,

Don't worry about October 25th, but let's at least get a nice storm system by then. Let's just hope we get our first inch of snow before December.

Gary

**********************
I am sooo excited to see the GRC start, and to see if the SMC dies. It should. But..what makes me giddy is..what if it doesn't?
---------------------------
Scott,

I think you are already in denial (LOL). The SMC has already died.

Gary

OK, I will try to stay positive and hopeful that a better weather pattern will set up for the next year. I am hopeful but at the same time fearful because of the current pattern and what it has reverted to in past few weeks (that nasty ridge). I hope this is not a harbinger of what is to come but according to your theory, it is not.

I am not a scientist but your theory does make sense. However, it does seem that dry years and wet years seem to run in more or less blocks of consecutive years (dry years = 1930's, 1950's, and now 2000's). Therefore, each year's weather pattern is unique in some ways, but in other ways is it not shaped or influenced by the pattern we're currently in, and its harder to break out of that (in other words, the deck is re-schuffled - but not completely)? This is my fear for the year ahead -- it WILL be a new weather pattern but will it yield more or less the same results that we've had -- heat and dryness? I hope not!

In any event, I agree with you on several points: it seems too much emphasis is placed on El Nino and La Nina. They are influences but there are perhaps greater forces at work, but what are they? Also, long-range forecasts are put out to the public before many facts are known, and are therefore notoriously inaccurate. People are impatient and seem to want to hear something, even if its inaccurate. Personally, over the years I've learned to ignore most long-range forecasts (but I'll pay attention to your's!).

Also, I know this can be debated until the cows come home, but I read articles that now accept global warming as the undisputed truth. My neighbor thinks this way, and looks at me in wonder when I suggest that the jury is still very much out on this one. Sure we are in a warming trend now but haven't there been warming trends in the past? And these warm spells are followed by cooling spells at some point? How did we suddenly get off this roller-coaster ride of cycles and onto global warming caused by human activity?

I'm getting off topic - sorry for the rant.
You are doing great work and have interesting ideas, keep it up!

--------------------------------
Doug,

There is a lot of evidence that points towards Global Warming. But, will it continue and at what rate will it increase if it does? There are a lot of questions still. This is why it may take another two decades before we know for sure.

Gary

******************
I am very glad to hear the cycle has not started yet, I didn't want the last hot spell to be included in the winter forecast. See I really like winter and snow I don't say that to loud but I love the snow.
thanks
Christa
-------------------
Christa,

It wil be starting soon.

Gary

*************
All fair in love & war.. eh, Looks as if the "other station" appologized. All of you weather people are rock stars in KC... It's nice that you share the same passion as us in weather and now we can communicate to talk about this shared passion.

I have new theory though.. the Dave C Theory, I'll call it the DCT for short.. Since scott has a named one.. I think you all have a switch in the back of the studio. And every morning you switch it what you like. So please switch it to rain, and I won't tell anybody about it...
----------------------------
Dave,

How did you know about our switches? We are only allowed to use the rain switch once a year and Jeff Penner accidentally pushed it in August so it won't work again until January 1st.

Gary

**************
Gary,
The GFS is now in agreement with the amplification of the ridge in the Pacific for later next week. The 0Z and 6Z GFS depict a strong trough in the central US with 850 temps falling below -6C. The 12Z might be a bit warmer. The models also close off a strong low pressure area in the northern Great Lakes. It would be amazing if the models are somewhat correct for next week. There would be a strong potential for freeze in most of the plains if the pattern verifies.
Devin
-----------------------
Devin,

Keep watching as this is the beginning of the develompent of our new pattern. And, remember it isn't one storm, two storms or a two week stretch. The cycle can include so many ridges and troughs. It will be fascinating. This new solution is still evolving. Let's see what we think by the end of the weekend.

Gary

***************
You shouldn't allow Jeff to stand next to the equipment with the flashy lights.
-------------------------
Dave,

Is he too distracting?

Gary

****************
Gary..you are onry. I will give up on the SMC when the front I documented well in advance for Oct 19-23 does not happen. And shhh..I think it may bring snow. Maybe not this far south, but it will bring snow. I believe this will be the next big snap in temps. If it doesn't happen, I will eat crow. But..what happens if it does happen????? And I will giggle if this front ends up being sited as the beginning of the GRC! LOL [yes, I am onry too]
----------------------
Good luck Scott,

Gary

****************
It rained in St. Joe today!...
Unfortunately it was a rain of LEAVES!
Oh well at least it was "raining" something:)
Nick in St. Joe!
------------------
Nick,

Yeah, it is drying out even more. But there is some significant hope within about 10 days or so.

Gary

********************
I looked over models and forecasts too, but I'm betting the frozen precipitation with that system in a week goes more from maybe Northern Nebraska and the Dakota's to the Great Lakes. Obviously its WAY too early to even guess on accumulations or if there will even be any, but it is fun to watch the first real fall cold front taking shape!

By the way my gut feeling tells me this winter will be a much much colder one then we've had recently the last several years, which wont take much, and precipitation will be slightly below average to average. But we'll see how it all sets up!
---------------------------
Jon,

I will have my opinion on the winter season, and my gut feeling as well in about one month. I have learned too much. I hope your gut feeling is half right. I want a wet pattern and we are due.

Gary

*************
Gary...remember there is a variance in the cycle lengths...if my storm comes in on the 15th, its still the same one referenced in my cycle. ;-)
------------------------
Scott,

It is only the same one if it is what you expected. What are you expecting?

Gary

******************
Gary,
I checked the latest SST animations in the tropical Pacific and it looks like the positive anomalies in the west-central Pacific might be decreasing. Anomalies in the Eastern Pacific near the South American coast continue to run between 0.5-1C above normal. The analog years of 76-77 and 77-78 also featured a weak El Nino with Pacific Basin anomalies averaging 0.5-1C above normal. (These two years featured much colder than normal temperatures). If these SST values remain consistent and do not increase much in value, it will have a lesser impact on the new GRC pattern.
Devin
------------------------
Devin,

The impact will be rather small either way. There will be one though. But, the GRC will be forming on its own. It is beginning in the next few days. I am actually getting somewhat excited about the models at this moment.

Gary

*********************
Gary what is GRC??

MICHAEL:
GRC is an abbreviation for "Gary's Recurring Cycle". (Scott, correct me if I got that wrong) Scott is another blogger, he gave that name to Gary's Weather Pattern Theory.
Jamie

**********************
Yes..the GRC is the "Gary Recurring Cycle". Seemed easier to name it and shorten it from the Weather Pattern Theory blah blah...

As much as we refer to it..seemed natural to name it. Give it the respect it deserves!

Gary, to the thought above "It is only the same one if it is what you expected. What are you expecting? " I think you were out of town..refer to my posting on Sept 27th and Oct 3rd. I detailed it there.

Or..might want to just ignore it as it really doesn't exist due to the GRC...LOL
---------------------------
Maybe we should call it the LRC. Is it too late to rename it? I guess I could name it anything I want.

Have a great weekend Scott. Everything is changing and I am worried.

Gary

***********************
Hello Mr. Lezak,
Any indications on when the first freeze will be?
Any signs of a long cold spell?
----------------------------
Ben,

There will be a good chance one week from this morning.

Gary

******************
I keep hoping for a very 'blizzardy' winter. I know thats not a word, but I would love to have 6+ 'major' snow events for the region.

I've also always wanted to watch a good snow game at Arrowhead stadium, like the one between New England and Oakland during the playoffs a few years ago.

Is there a chance our new weather pattern will be even more boring than this last years?
----------------------------------
Shawn,

There is a chance it could even be more boring, but the odds are in our favor for it to be much more exciting. We will have some strong indications within a few weeks.

I am with you on your idea for a great snow year. 6 major snow events would be nice.

Gary

***********************
Gary,
Is their any chance that the low temperatures at the end of next week will be 32F or lower. It seems like the urban heat island always factors into the low temperature forecasts for these type of events.
Devin
-------------------------------
Devin,

It could be 32 degrees, but the urban heat island affect will exist, but only near downtown.

Gary

***************
LRC? What's the L for?
I can't wait for the cold weather!

David
------------------------
David,

L would stand for Lezak, but we can stick with GRC for now until I write my paper about the theory.

Gary

*****************
I keep hearing whisperings around weather sites that we're in for a major cool down next week. I see that you have it in the 50's w/ 30's for the lows next week. I realize temperature forecasts a week out are at best educated guesses. I'm going to ask you a quesiton you'd be crazy to answer though.

Does your gut tell you we could have a frost/freeze late next week?

I would really love a nice crisp fall morning.
------------------------
Shawn,

I think a frost is likely and freeze is certainly possible.

Gary

*****************
Looking at the SMC [LOL] and the ENSO trending, I am voting for a dry cool front half of the winter, and a wet warm second half. We may have to wait until late Dec into Jan/Feb for our first signficant snowfall [4+ inches].

LRC..is it too late? Will it confuse everyone?

If I have seen the SMC cycle three times now, why would I think it would change now? I am not seeing anything I haven't seen previously...maybe I should squint?
-------------------------
Scott,

You better start squinting as the pattern in the next week is finally completely different. Squint real hard.

Gary

***********************
Gary,

Its exciting seeing the jet stream literally dive straight out of northern Canada into the northern plains states. I don't remember this happening much if at all last fall/winter!
--------------------------
Jon,

It did happen a few times last winter, but not like this. We are about to experience something we have never experienced before. The new unique weather pattern. It could be exciting. This is one of the main points of my weather pattern theory. EVERY YEAR IS UNIQUE, meaning the weather pattern we will have set up within a month has never happened before. And, the latest GFS data is very exciting, but is it right?

Gary

***************
Gary,
Is our second severe weather season still going on? When are we out of the woods for a severe weather outbreak in the fall?
I thought last year we had a a severe-weather outbreak, including a tornado in Excelsior Springs, in November.
---------------------------
Matt,

The "second season" is really over now that the strong cold front will wipe moisture out of here on Wednesday. But, severe weather often does happen with very strong storm systems in November, but most likely that would be in the deep south.

Gary

**************
there is rumor and indications from the european models that a big cold wave is set to go south all the way to the gulf coast is this true and im ready for the big snowstorm in tennessee
--------------------------------
Don,

The rumor may be true, but it won't happen. A cold front is moving through this weekend, then a big warm up and then another storm. The European model has had a very bad track record of late.

Gary