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Gary, are you seeing more of an active pattern than you did this time last year? I am really hoping for some good strong snow storms this year.
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Ann,

It is just too early to tell. I lean in the direction of a more active and stormier pattern, but we must wait another two to three weeks and see how it evolves.

Gary

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I know you like "exciting" weather, but I hope this isn't one of those patterns that results in ice storms! ANYthing but that! It wasn't a big leap of imagination to see that mist falling this morning turning to ice!

Have a great day! -mt
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Mike,

Last winter we didn't even have one day with ice. We'll see what happens.

Gary

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Gary will you have a theory three or will that be your winter prediction. After reading this blog and the others from the past week, are you concerned that a ridge like we had last year will build again? I sense a lack of hopefulness as you look at your materials and compare with past setups. Let's keep hoping for a more active winter. Anything would be better than we have had the past 10 years. Except for the two back to back 5-6 inchers we had it Topeka last year, anything will be better than the previous winters. Take care, Michael in Topeka
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Michael,

It isn't necessarily a lack of hopefulness, but a completely different look to the pattern that appeared a week ago. Last week the models were taking this energetic flow and diving it into the major western troughs. Now, the data is pointing towards a more central trough. So, it is a bit confusing, very complex, and it will take some deep analysis to figure this pattern out. I still lean on the side of a very good pattern, so we'll see.

I will have a part 3 and 4 before I issue the winter forecast.

Gary

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Gary,
The models are showing a lot more storminess in the Gulf of Alaska and in the Eastern Pacific this week. Also, the jet stream is north of its usual position, which is typical in El Nino years. The Alaska and Western Canada temperature anomalies have been running much above normal as well. It will take awhile before this warmth breaks down and shifts the polar jet stream farther south. The models flip flop a lot after about day 4 this time of year!
Devin
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Devin,

There are so many things going on right now in the upper levels of the atmosphere. The jet stream, however, is a bit stronger and further south than last year at this time.

Gary

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Well, luckly we got some rain yesterday morning, what little mother nature could provide. It appears based on radar that we again missed out on a great opportunity to get nailed with heavy rain. :|
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Dave,

We did get a nice rain, but just missed the opportunity to really make up for some of our deficit. This storm just didn't do what I expected it to do, but it did produce more rain than we expected yesterday morning.

Gary

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Are you running late this year on your winter prediction?
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Richard,

I issue the winter forecast around November 5th to 10th every year for a reason. I firmly believe that pattern shows itself and sets up by then. So, November 10th is still a bit early based on my theory. Right now, the plan is for November 9th.

Gary

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Hi Gary, Most Favored Weather Predictor, We were planning a trip out west in mid-November. I've been watching your weather thoughts for a week, as I don't want to leave a 'house sitter' stranded out on our farm due to some yukky icy or snowy weather events before Thanksgiving. Is it still too soon to look into the 'weather ball' and see that far ahead? Thanks much.
Su
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Su,

It is too soon. The chance of an ice storm in November is almos zero. But, we have had a few snowstorms. I don't see anything at this moment that leans in that direction. But, we must wait another couple of weeks.

Gary

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The SMC died a horrible death last week. Much like a car wreck, I did not want to watch..but had too! Even now, I think I see pieces of it, but I can't fit it into the cycle. Bummer..it was fun while it lasted.

I think we are looking toward a central trough...with a Pacific/Canidian ridge. Wouldn't this normally indicate a NW flow? Hope not..how boring.
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Scott,

A central trough is actually a good thing. We would be in northwest flow with a Mississippi River Valley or eastern trough. I really am scared at how this is evolving, but we must be patient.

Gary

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I'm ok with rain and snow... just don't want anything so exciting that could bring us severe weather! Anyway I'm ok with what we've been seeing so far, but don't know what it means when the same thing is carried over to different seasons.
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Ivan,

It is very complex when we carry the same pattern into the next few months. I will explain when we figure out what the pattern is?

Gary

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I'm very excited about the potential winter pattern. I remember last years winter forecast felt more like a funeral than a celebration. While we can all see your excitement at your pattern theory being proven I recall my fiance pointing out how depressed you looked while forecasting last year's winter.

My request for you is that if this year's winter forecast is as bleak as last year's I would like for you to deilver it while wearing a clown costume or something else that inspires happiness. Perhaps the back ground should be puppies or kittens playing in the grass as you tell us we're going to be miserable for the winter.

I still hold hope for a happy pattern.
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Shawn,

Thanks! Hopefully we won't need the extra props to make it a happy winter forecast. But, I am worried.

Gary

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Gary, and the rest of the weather team,

i just was wondering if there was any slightest sign of wen we might have some measurable snow? I want a HUGE SNOWSTORM!lol. And how are you feeling as of now about the new pattern that is setting up?
thanks,
Andy
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Andy,

My feelings now are different than they were last week. And, they will likely be different next week. Quite simply....the pattern hasn't set up yet.

Gary

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Gary is it going to snow any time soon?
You are the best weather person I know.
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Richard,

We have made it to the time of the year where it could snow at any time. There is even a slight chance this weekend.

Thank you for the kind words, you made my day!

Gary

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Hi Gary,
I'm very interested in your weather pattern theory especially since I'm a teacher. I love my snow days. What exactly does a central trough look like for us in Kansas City? Does this mean snow, ice, etc? Thanks!
Stephanie
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Stephanie,

I am not at all close to saying we have a central trough. So, let's wait and see where it really sets up first.

Gary

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Possible snow this weekend? As in here in Kansas City area or to our North and West?
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Ben,

You all really read the comments don't you. The GFS this aftenoon had it cold enough for snow, but I don't buy it at this moment. The pattern is changing so fast that it will look differently tomorrow.

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Gary,
Well, it looks like the SST anomalies in the Eastern Pacific are increasing again. Anomalies between 2-3C above normal have appeared again west of the South American coast. I am still watching to see if the SSTs in the Western and Central Pacific will decrease or remain above normal. This El Nino will affect how the troughs and ridges behave in the Pacific with the new GRC pattern this winter.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.shtml
Devin
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Devin,

I do not believe that it affects the way troughs and ridges move. It may force the jet stream further south, but it won't affect the GRC in a major way. The GRC will happen and set up without influence from El Nino.

Gary

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Gary and team,

I was wondering if you could explain what the conditions have to be for snow. Everyone talks about the upper level temps and the wind shear and all that. I am sure that some kind of low is involved. So I was wondering since the winter season is coming upon us and your kinda depressed about the way the set up looks today, maybe this could take your mind away from the models, you could teach us some weather science. What do the upper temps have to be, where does the low have to be situated, basically a lowdown on how you predict that snow is coming. Thanks so much in advance.
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Keri,

It is very complex. The upper levels don't really have a critical temperature. It just needs to be below freezing most of the way up through the atmosphere for snowflakes to form and not melt. Even one small layer above freezing at 2, 3 or 5000 feet can make it rain. If it is very cold aloft the surface temperature can be as high as 40 degrees or so and it would still snow. There are an infinite number of possibilities. We will touch upon them in more detail when the season approaches.

Gary

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Gary-How crazy are you getting answering the same question about this winters weather? Sounds like we are all very excited and hopeful about this winter. Just wanted to add a note of sorrow for Scott and the death of his theory. Will Scott be behind your theory now 100%? LOL
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Scott,

I think Scott is along for the ride. The GRC was named by him, so I am sure he is quite proud. Especially if it is proven some day. I don't mind answering the same question, I just wish I had the answer. I will soon.

Gary