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Cold morning and Halloween dogs
The wind chill factor has been as low as 17 degrees this morning with the northwest wind blowing. High pressure is settling over the area today and the winds should become light by this evening for trick or treating.
Click to enlarge (500 mb flow valid next Tuesday)
The jet stream is now strengthening. This trend will continue through January when the jet stream reaches its peak strength before weakening as spring approaches. Let's watch very closely where this increasing energy is distributed next week. It could get quite exciting, and if we are to have a real winter this year it better get exciting next week. I think it will.
Breezy as a princess and Storm wearing her raincoat
Another picture of Breezy & Storm dressed up
New data came out rather interesting for next week! I will have complete coverage on the newscasts tonight. Breezy and Stormy may make a costume appearance on the 5 PM news.
Posted by at October 31, 2006 7:14 AM
So any chance of snow? :)
No. Just be patient. Our first chance could come before Thanksgiving.
Posted by: Andrew at October 31, 2006 9:02 AM
Gary..this is going to be exciting this year. Based on observations in the last month, we seem to see some activity every 4-6 days. Not unusual, however..what is a bit odd is the expanding/shrinking trough from the west coast that ejects out some vort our way. I see an alternating pattern between ejections and dipping canadian troughs. The canadian troughs look mainly dry, but sink the temps...the ejections will be the wildcards. It will be hit and miss much like the commas we have already seen. But..if it does hit..I think it will hit hard. I think we will see this quite a few times this season. I am waiting to see if/when an ejection hits at the same time as a sagging canadian front. That should be the big snow storms. I don't have the secret sauce you have on the specifics, but based on trends..I think this will be an active year.
In recent years it has looked good in October, but then bad the rest of the year. There is something very different this time though as it seems storm systems want to intensify near our region. We will know a lot more in just a few days.
Posted by: Scott at October 31, 2006 9:32 AM
Happy Halloween Gary! I would love to have an exciting winter with at least a few good snowstorms that produce several inches of snow. I was SO excited last year when we got that one snowstorm fairly early on, and thought yeah, this is going to be an awesome winter! Then that was about all we got wasn't it? However...I'm going to put my request in to you to halt the snow for the 1st half of January. My baby's due then, and my in-laws will be driving here from Kentucky. We do not need snow during that time! Are you dressing Breezy & Stormy up for Halloween? If you do, please post pictures of them. Or better yet, bring them on air with you. I can never get enough of them! By the way, I'm really looking forward to your winter forecast on Nov. 9.
Wow, congratulations on the baby arriving in January. Keep us updated. If I have a bloggers meeting I better have it in early December so you can come.
I do have Breezy and Stormy outfits. Maybe Breezy can wear one of Windy's old outfits since she is a bit bigger. I will try to get pictures.
Posted by: Koyuki King at October 31, 2006 10:14 AM
Hey gary , its craig again the softball tourney director, im going to try and have 1 last softball tourney this weekend, how does the weather look? thanks, craig harvey
It looks dry Saturday, and probably Sunday too, but a storm may be developing by then.
Posted by: craig harvey at October 31, 2006 10:24 AM
I'm going on a trip to Africa during the second part of November. I've jokingly told friends that I just know I'm going to miss a good snow storm while I'm there. Now from what you've said it sounds like I may be right! I just hope I don't miss our ONLY snow of the season. =)
There is no sign of any snow yet. But I know how it feels as when I have a trip out of town before April I worry about missing any snow. One time, when I lived in Oklahoma in 1986, I missed a 14 inch blizzard. Can you imagine missing that. My brother was getting married and I was the best man so there was no way of getting out of that.
Have a great trip to Africa and most likely the snow will wait until you get back.
Posted by: Marlina at October 31, 2006 11:18 AM
My fingers are crossed for a snowy winter. Like Koyuki, I was anticipating great things after the snowfall in early December. It was a nice birthday present.
Also, you need to hold dog training seminars on the side. I can't believe how great Stormy and Breezy do. My two labs could learn a thing or two. One is 4 years old and the other 8 months, and they're a little out of control.
Thanks, and Breezy & Stormy just made an appearance on the 5 PM newscast in their costumes, but I put the princess outfit on Stormy this time.
Keep thinking positive thoughts for this winter.
Posted by: Trey at October 31, 2006 11:34 AM
1. You keep talking like a large storm or some other development is happening next week, is that towards the weekend (11/10-11/12) as I am heading to Colorado for the weekend????
2. How are you going to replace Jamie? Not that we can ever replace someone like her but are we going to see a new face in the near future or will Jeff and Brett just fill in the gaps?
Thanks and congrats to the Sooners. What a great win. I'm still miffed about the Oregon loss...but such is life!
The Sooners almost had the best team in the nation this year. It really is close, but they just are missing something. It is still a good year if they keep winning.
We have a new person hired and I think he is very good forecaster. But, he may not like snow as he is from Minnesota. He will start this weekend and I will blog about it later in the week.
Posted by: Todd at October 31, 2006 11:59 AM
I am flying out of town tomorrow evening back to Michigan. My aunt passed away last week, and the service is Thursday, with a grave side service in northwest Michigan Friday. Can you give me an idea how the weather will be at least from here to there? I fly out of KC at 6:39 PM sharp (yea right!) and arrive back in KC Sunday afternoon. I just don't want any big stroms on Sunday. Last year at Thanks-giving I came back when we had the twisters around here, and it was not a fun flight!
Thanks Gary, and you should write a book on your theory - and have them teach it!
We are sorry to hear about your Aunt. The weather will be dry on the way there Friday and there could be some rain on the way back, but it doesn't look cold enough for snow.
Posted by: Brian at October 31, 2006 12:25 PM
Is it in the "secret" that the analysis of why the vorts may be strenghening in our area my be defined? I am not happy with the "secret" of the GRC. When doing peer review, there is transparency isn't there? You indicate that you can't disclose at this time...if not now, when?
"Well, we have a system and it involves some scientific, but secretive techniques that I can’t disclose at this time."
Is this similar to the meteorlogical "Weapon of Mass Destruction?"
Even Einstein let everyone in on the Theory of Relativity...just know one believed it. ;-)
I am really just somewhat kidding about the secret. All it is, is the way we go about looking at the charts and decide where the longwave troughs and ridges are located. It is sort of like when we are the only ones who went for rain last week and then it happened, what technique did we use? It is tough to explain. It is ESP or something.
Posted by: Scott at October 31, 2006 12:32 PM
Isn't it amazing how when the desert SouthWest is wet in winter, we typically are too. And if the Pacific Northwest is wet we generally aren't? Is this a trend you will be watching for as the pattern sets up?
I am not sure that this correlation truly does exist. Two years ago Southern California had their wettest winter ever, and we were rather dry and boring. Sometimes storm systems can reach their peak strength near the west coast and then fall apart here.
Posted by: jon at October 31, 2006 12:42 PM
Winter weather pattern forecasts
I look forward to hearing your 2006-2007 winter forecast. It seems that folks like AccuWeather.com are placing a lot of emphasis on a weak to moderate El Nino, and thus are forecasting a warmer winter for this region. Old Farmer's Almanac, on the other hand, is forecasting a cold and snowier winter. I'm not sure what they are basing this on (but I like the sound of their forecast!).
I think your theory makes sense, just from observing what actually happens year-to-year. You seem to be on to something that others are missing or disregarding. I do know this: I have seen weak to moderate El Nino years behave quite differently, and I think it is wrong to conclude (as AccuWeather seems to) that it "automatically" means a warm winter in our region. Personally I am leery of forecasters using El Nino or La Nina as THE major factor determining weather patterns, like there isn't something else going on...
Well stated! Three or four years ago ACCU weather forecasted a warm winter across the northeast based on a weak El Nino, etc. And, we thought it would be a brutal winter there. It was brutal with snowstorm after snowstorm for Boston. El Nino does NOT create the weather pattern.
Posted by: Doug at October 31, 2006 12:55 PM
Breezy and Stormy look adorable!!! Hopefully I will be able to see them on the news tonight before I take my little trick or treaters out. Where is your costume Gary? :-)
Looking foward to hearing about what kind of weather might be brewing for next week.
No costume for me this year. I will have to get one next year. Today was the first time Breezy put on any clothes. She didn't mind at all.
Posted by: Jeanie at October 31, 2006 1:34 PM
Gary - My two Siberian Huskys (Lexis and KC Blue) can't wait for your Winter Forecast. They are hoping for snow, snow and more snow. Keep up the great work. I hope this winter is as exciting as it appears it might be.
It can't be worse than last year, can it?
Posted by: Bill at October 31, 2006 1:36 PM
Awwww...look at those girls...lol The first pic of Breezy is a hoot!!!
I'm with everyone on this. I want a winter this year complete with snow. I'm really looking forward to your winter forcast. But more than anything I'm looking forward to all the discussions between you and Scott about this winter forcasting :) Too bad you couldn't put Scott in the studio with you and go head to head...OOPS, I probably shouldn't have put that out there...;)
Don't give Scott any ideas!
Posted by: Donna at October 31, 2006 2:59 PM
Just loved the pictures of Breezy and Stormy. Thanks for making the weather so much fun. I love your enthusiasm. Hey, I tried to submit my snow flake contest entry but couldn't. Is there a glitch in the system today or is it just me? And, if you see Dr Hock, tell him Lisa said "hey". He always spoke so highly of you!
I will say hi to Dr. Hock for you! Keep trying to enter. I just tried it and it does work.
Posted by: Lisa at October 31, 2006 3:55 PM
When you say things are going to get interesting next week do you mean we might get our first snow of the season. Another thing when do you think we will get our first powerful Canadian cold front,or is that what is going to happen next week.
There is still no sign of an Arctic front or any snow. By interesting I mean a storm may form, perhaps two storm systems.
Posted by: Charles at October 31, 2006 3:57 PM
Oh my goodness, they're adorable!! Thank you so much for fulfilling my request :-) I can't believe how Breezy has grown. I bet they loved every second of their photo shoot (yeah, whatever!) I dressed my dog & cat up last year, they were miserable. I even made them sit outside with me while I handed out candy ha ha ha. They're pretty excited I'll have a baby to dress up next year. Thanks again for posting the pics!
Thank you for getting me to find their outfits and for getting pictures. The princess outfit was worn by Windy years ago on the set. It was nice remembering this afternoon.
Posted by: Koyuki King at October 31, 2006 4:24 PM
Happy Halloween Gary,
The dogs look cool!, all they need now are buckets with doggy treats!
It's starting to look fun from a weather standpoint, but I'm going to try and hold my exitment for another week or so hoping things hold out.:)
It appears that the roulette wheel is slowing down and... (Nov.9th can't come fast enough)
BTW: It looks like I put in kshb.com as my name the last time I commented, sorry about that;)
Nick in St. Joe!
I was wondering who KSHB was. 9 days away!
Posted by: Nick Rau at October 31, 2006 4:31 PM
The 9th huh...hmmm...most of the cycle should be evident now. I think you are building suspense, Gary...lol.
I don't think I should be in the studio. The camera adds 15lbs, and I can't afford that right now. LOL.
I am thinking the first snow chance will come with the front around the 11th. I was wrong about the last one, because of the temp..but the rain was present. This time, I am pretty sure the temps will cooperate.
On the 9th, will you tell us the cycle, and where the long/short waves are?
You have a fever again. Modelitis can be pretty serious. I just don't see a chance yet, but If I were to guess I would suggest around the 17th perhaps will be our first chance.
My theory is that the weather pattern sets up between October 10th and November 10th and then begins cycling. So, I am not holding anything back at all. We MUST CONTINUE TO ANALYZE the data. Another week is absolutely necessary before making any serious conclusions.
Posted by: Scott at October 31, 2006 8:21 PM
I really enjoy your weather info in the blog. I love to be able to look at the website to see what to expect for the weather when ever I want. I have noticed that sometimes when I check in the evening to see what the low for the night will be the long range has already been updated for the week starting the next day which leaves the immediate nights low off the page. I wondered if you could include the lows in the current day forcast. Just a thought. Maybe no one else has noticed.
This is the second request for the forecast overnight low to be on the web page in the past week. It is important and we will get it on there soon.
Posted by: Susan at October 31, 2006 8:47 PM
Once again, KCI had the warmest low temperature this morning out of all the reporting stations. They have not been in the 20s so far this season. Everyone had better be in the 20s for lows tonight.
That thermometer at KCI needs to be adjusted. It is reading high. Yesterday, it was 49 at KCI and 47 Downtown. NO WAY!
Tonight we will all be in the 20s, even KCI. And the official low may still come in around 28 or 29 this morning.
Posted by: Devin at November 1, 2006 8:08 AM
Devin is right. Even as of 9.15 AM this morning, downtown is at 37F (after morning low of 28F) while KCI is already 40F. How is this possible? What needs to be done to get this thermometer at KCI corrected? On another note, I am looking forward to your upcoming Winter forecast.
Yes, I have noticed it for a long time now. We will see if there is anything that can be done.
Posted by: Mahesh at November 1, 2006 9:18 AM
Great food for thought!
The point you made about the computer models is very clear to me, over the years I have heard various meteorologists talk about a "stormy" or "quiet" long term(two week) trend based on computer models, only to have that trend last two days!
Also last night the GFS was producing another cut off low like the one it is predicting for early next week farther out in time! Thanks for the insight!
Nick in St. Joe!
I am glad that I was able to bring this to your attention. So often when we are having a snowstorm, a similar one shows up within 10 days, only to wake up the next morning and the data is all of a sudden dry. So sad.
Posted by: Nick Rau at November 1, 2006 12:37 PM