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18 in a row? Rain, not snow, or not much?
Good morning,
We are going for 18 in a row today within 3 degrees. Our forecast for today's high is 54 and I think we will do it. This is our longest streak of the year. And, we had 5 days in a row in which we hit the high on the nose. This is almost impossible to do. There will be some big challenges this week to keep this streak going.
As hot as we have been in forecasting the weather during the past few weeks it will still be quite challenging on Wednesday morning. Will it be cold enough to snow? The new data comes out soon and I will add to this entry in a while.
Rainfall amounts from last night:
Gardner: 0.16"
Olathe: 0.13"
KCI airport: 0.09"
Lee's Summit: .09"
Lawrence: .04"
 Click to enlarge (Surface map valid 6 AM Wednesday)
The above map is theNAM 48 hour surface chart. The blue dotted line is the 540 thickness line which is a measure of the temperatures throughout the surface to 500 mb level and provides us with a clue as to where it is cold enough to snow. This blue dotted line is well west of us, but only a slight change and it could shift into the comma head that is forming.
So, this latest NAM, if it is right, is too warm for any snow. Let's continue to watch these trends. The biggest problem will be the surface temperature, not to mention it may be above 32 degrees through the first 5,000 feet. If the storm is strong enough it could cool the entire layer by 2 or 3 degrees and then watch out, but it may not be strong enough, or more than the strength, there just isn't enough cold air.
Things to watch: Where will the upper low form? How cold will it be at the surface? Let's just hope we get this storm. Rain or snow is fine with me! The latest GFS takes this storm further south which could leave us with almost nothing, rain or snow. So, this is weather! It can drive you nuts.
Gary
Posted by at November 13, 2006 7:32 AM
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Wow! Maybe snow? My kids would love that! However, it cannot snow 1 inch yet as the date I picked for the snowflake contest is not until Decemember. Hee!
Looking forward to your update! Have a great day Gary! :)
~Lisa
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Lisa,
Hopefully it will snow before Christmas. We will have to watch this storm carefully.
Gary
Posted by: Lisa at November 13, 2006 7:43 AM
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Morning Gary, this system coming seems to be predicted by others as moving very fast. Do you think it could produce just a brief snow shower but it wouldn't stick because the ground is too warm? I really like your winter forecast. It makes a lot of sense to me. Other forecasters are saying next week looks really cold and perhaps producing our first sticking snow around Thanksgiving. What do you see? Take care, Michael/Topeka
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Michael,
I don't see what as you say "others" are seeing. Next week looks warm, although I hope it changes, and this is not a fast moving storm. It drops in over us starts spinning and then it moves out. It should move slow enough to give us a good soaking, unless it tracks too far south which is a possibility.
Gary
Posted by: michael huffman at November 13, 2006 8:15 AM
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Gary,
Would it be possible to include wind direction and speeds on your 7 day forecast?
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Suzanne,
It would make the map too busy on the air. Perhaps we could add some wind data to the online version. Let me think about it.
Gary
Posted by: Suzanne at November 13, 2006 8:21 AM
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Gary...New data seems to show the 540 thickness line never making it through KC at any time from Tomorrow night through the day on Wednesday. I assume things are no longer looking too great. What's it going to take??? I know it's early, but it's frustrating to see a map like yesterday's 1800Z GFS, and then see how quickly it turns. Oh well, maybe the models have one more turn left in them between now and Wednesday...Keeping our fingers crossed...
Matt Maisch..
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Matt,
Remember, on Friday there was very little chance that this storm would even give us a drop. So, it is always changing. This is what makes it fun.
Gary
Posted by: Matt Maisch at November 13, 2006 12:24 PM
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Gary,
I watched your forecast Thursday night and you had a high for Friday as 38. The high that day was 55 according to NWS. Maybe I misunderstood, but on your long term graphic it said 38, but you are now saying that you have had 18 days in a row where you have been within 3 degrees. According to your forecast Thursday, you were off by 17.
I do remember you mentioning that the temps were going to drop during the day, so why did you have a high of 38?
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Sherry,
We went for a midnight high of 56, and then we said the afternoon temperature would drop to 39 degrees. So we were actually within 3 on both accounts.
On the air I stated on our 3 degree warranty that the temperature fell to 39 degrees as expected. I could have shown the high for the day at midnight which we stated as well on the 10 PM newscast, but I chose to just show the afternoon forecast which is even harder to get within three.
Does this make sense? So, our 18 day streak continues!
Gary
Posted by: Sherry Stewart at November 13, 2006 12:41 PM
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Gary - Including wind speeds and direction would be very helpful for us...my husbands job depends greatly on the wind. We are weather junkies since his job is so dependent on the weather and have greatly enjoyed the blog even though this is the first time I have posted! Keeping our fingers crossed for the rain...the trees and lawns could really use a good drink right now.
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Treeluvrs,
Let's hope this storm doesn't go to far south.
Gary
Posted by: treeluvrs at November 13, 2006 1:11 PM
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It looks like next week is supposed to warm up. I am wondering if there is a high pressure ridge buliding in next week. I dont see any storms until possibly late next week. What is you imput on this. Wednesdays storm is looking very interesting but yet very frustrating.
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John,
It looks good for you to see at least a half an inch of RAIN from this storm.
Gary
Posted by: John Moon III at November 13, 2006 2:42 PM
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Gary
It doesnt look like any snow this time around....what a bumber! The latest data shows more warm air moving into the system....there wont be enough cold air. There will probably be only a few flurries. Im dissapointed. Oh well, there will be more chances.
Adam Penney
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Adam,
Hopefully we don't have to wait a month for our next chance.
Gary
Posted by: Adam Penney at November 13, 2006 2:44 PM
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Ewww...its gonna be close. I think when we do get the cold air, the vort may be a bit too far away to bring the moisture. I think rain changing to some snow looks good to me...but flurries.
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Scott,
If it were to change there wouldn't be any flurries. It would be heavy thundersnow. But, it looks too warm. And, if the storm goes any further south we won't even see any rain. You know me, I am optimistic. This is tough!
Gary
Posted by: Scott at November 13, 2006 3:35 PM
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Sometimes I wish that if a storm is not going to produce in the end, that the models wouldn't play with us like that( It's like throwing salt on a wound!)
The storm yesterday did give us rain, but would it do so later in the season?, I don't think so( it will probably move to fast and be to dry, at least thats what I think)
The storm that does look like it would produce precip on its return,(Wensday's Storm) looks like it will be a southern tracking storm. Where's that Great Lakes Low with the high amplitude pattern, I want it back!
Thanks for your time.
Nick in St. Joe!
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Nick,
Remember, we could be in a 40, 50, or 60 day cycle. We just don't know yet. I am beginning to have an idea as to what is happening, but let's see how this materializes. So, what may seem like a long warm winter, should suddenly change and the computer models won't handle the beginning of this change. Be patient.
And, these storm systems that repeat later in the season could be much stronger. So, don't count them out.
Gary
Posted by: Nick Rau at November 13, 2006 8:17 PM
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