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Gary, I know you have not forcasted snow but I'm hoping for a SNOW streak. Oh by the way I clicked on todays forcast...is today still Friday?
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Richard,

We will try to get that today's forecast updated.

No snow in the forecast.

Gary

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gary,

How is that storm looking for next week? And what do you think about the weather pattern now after looking at some new data?

thanks
Andy
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Andy,

I will be analyzing all of the data this weekend. This is a very complex weather pattern and I just haven't figured it out yet. It should all come together before I am on Thursday night. It better.

This week's storm systems both are strange and disorganized. But, let's see how the end of the week storm looks in a couple of days.

Gary

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Gary,

Since its going to be a nice weekend we better take advantage of it and get all this leaf raking done. I know this weather won't last all winter. Before too long we will get some snow I hope,also does it look like we might see our first snow in november this year.
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Jeremy,

Yes, it is a good raking weekend. Thanks for the reminder.

Still no snow showing up though.

Gary

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I just wanted to say welcome and good luck to Jeremy today!
Also, that is really weird that we have had that streak of rain in a drought year!
And one last thought, you are saying that it is a very complex pattern, so is that a bad sign meaning that it will have a tough time putting storms together because of it's complexity, or does it just mean it's hard to figure out its set up?
Thanks for your time.
Nick in St. Joe! (5 days left!):)
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Nick,

Every year is complex. So, don't worry about that. If we are in the storm track we will be in good shape. I am just trying to figure out where storm systems will intensify. I have ideas and I am running out of time. But, we will come up with a confident forecast by Thursday night.

Gary

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Gary,
I have noticed that the GFS continues its trend with the strong Pacific jet stream moving into the northwest and British Columbia. There is also a notable split flow developing as well that keeps much of the cold air well north of the border. Hopefully this will not be a trend that continues into the winter season.
Devin
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Devin,

All of these developments are interesting. More later.

Gary

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Tick tock tick tock...mother nature throws the curveball of a late GRC. Rut roh. Nov 9th..just around the corner. I will be very interested to see the level of detail and any glimpses of the GRC spoken on the 9th.

Just kidding..I have all confidence that the GRC will be present and accounted for.

Hey..when are the bloggers meeting?
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Scott,

I am thinking of a first week of December meeting. I always wonder about the GRC, but then I NEVER EVER get let down. It will happen again, but what is it this year. And, it is good to wonder about it as I have evidence, but I haven't proven a thing. This is why it is called a theory.

Gary

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A thing of interest. - off the coast of Oregon, the Navy has actually named the low coming in as Invest 91C.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2006&MO=11&BASIN=CPAC&STORM_NAME=91C.INVEST&PROD=track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&AGE=Latest&STYLE=tables

[if you animate the vis or inf, you will see the tight wound eye and wall]

This is a odd storm. This is a rare polar low, or some call it a polarcane. It has collapsed now, but Thurs, it was a hybrid warm/cold core storm. It had an eyewall and had intense thunderstorms surrounding the eye. Wierd. Looking out in the next few storms, I see another very tighly wound low about 1500 miles off the coast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/loop-avn.html

As the Pacific waters are about 2C warmer than normal, I am curious if we will see another one of these hybrids.

Looks like the Pacific is perking up...fun fun fun...
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Scott,

The Pacific is getting very active. And, this is likely part of the cycle. Not much activity, then sudden activity. But, where will the storm systems move after they get to the west coast? The answers likely lie in the last three weeks of data. I will figure this out.

Gary

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Who's responsibilility is it to update the forecast graphic on Gary Lezak's forecast. it never seems to be current -- especially duting the weekend. Forces me to go look on other sites to see what I would rather see here.

For example -- Saturday night and it is still showing friday's forescast.
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Jeff,

I will be a politician tonight and claim responsibility for this mistake. We just forget to update that graphic. This will go on high priority next week.

Gary

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We talked about this recently...I agree that the lake effect is going to be big this year. About every two weeks I think.

Now...time to look at my 5 day trend. Something is owed to us tomorrow then on the 10-11 [check - GFS confirms], then on the 15-16, then on the 20-21.

Wow..holy cow..look at the 15th-16th GFS...look at that ridge blowing out the persistent canadian low! It could be in the 70s/80s in Nov! Wait..this is forever away in terms of the GFS..lets get a bit closer to it. I am very interested to see if this trend is part of the GRC...looks unique to me.
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Scott,

The storm at the end of the week is very interesting. We will need it to dig a bit further south and it could snow.

Gary

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I would just like to welcome Jeremy to the KC area and tell him he did a great job on last nights weather. It has got to be hard to move from one city to another and expect to know towns and citys 75 miles away on a map without names. I know you all have some kind of way of doing it, but Jeremy did a great job and never looked like he was gonna make a mistake once. Welcome to KC Jeremy.
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Keri,

Thank you! I will pass this along to Jeremy who will be blogging very soon.

Gary