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A strong storm and we miss it!
Click to enlarge (rainfall forecast for tonight)
Good morning everyone,
Yes this storm is about to leave us dry (the above map is the 12 hour forecast rainfall for tonight showing almost nothing unless you live west through south). It is hard to believe, and thank goodness we took that snow out of the forecast. Can you imagine us going for snow and then predicting amounts and then.......this morning NOTHING! So, as disappointing as this storm is about to become for us I want everyone to think of the big picture. I am still anticapating our winter prediction to come through so we must be patient. This is all part of the bigger cycle that we have yet to define. Our exciting days will come as December approaches.
Posted by at November 14, 2006 8:20 AM
Gary, I look forward to when the bloggers unite. I will bring something that shows what I believe to be the SMCv.2 as it may relate to some of the trends of the GRC. Based on what you communicate and what I see, I am beginning to see some similarities. And yes, the GRC started the week of Oct 1. There was big shift that week. That is when the SMCv.2 began..as I have put into a couple of blogs, we are on a 5 day pattern. The GRC helps determine which ones we get..be it Pacific or Canadian. And the GRC shows the longwave movements as it pertains to the feature ridge and its movement in the Pacific. This in turn affects the Great Lakes persistent low that keeps circling around. I have a pretty good feel of this now. I think we are close to seeing the same things. And, yes..there has been a slight shift in the last week that seems to make things a bit more interesting...we shall see.
I will try to set a date soon.
Posted by: Scott at November 14, 2006 9:09 AM
Wait a second... I heard you on 980 this morning upping the chance from 70% to 90% and an 1 hour and a half later it is 0%?
Yes, If there is one bad forecast update I made it was that one! I was half asleep and can't even remember what made me think that. Anyway, I quickly took it out. Sorry!
Posted by: hank at November 14, 2006 9:13 AM
Ok, we are still ok going into the winter forecast, right? Maybe this was just a pre-test to blow out the cobwebs, and hone the skills a bit before we get into the real stuff. At least that is what I am thinking.Keep the faith, we are pulling for snow. My daughter in Vancouver is home for Christmas, we at least need it on the ground while she is home. Ok...........
Have a great day, Ihear it will be splendid after all.
We will work on some snow for Christmas.
Posted by: Keith at November 14, 2006 9:20 AM
I guess if we want a white Christmas we need to just wait!1 But still a bummer!
Posted by: Andrew at November 14, 2006 9:34 AM
Down here in Appleton City i have dish and only get springfield channels and some channels still say there is a chance of snow down here. I also checked the noaa weather service and they also have a chance of a rain snow mix for Appleton City. Do you think Appleton has a chance for snow? Id like to have your opinion.
I just think there is too much warm air. Let's just hope you get some rain down there.
Posted by: daniel at November 14, 2006 9:55 AM
The forecast still shows a 70% chance of rain, but based on your comments here in the blog, are you taking it out now, or just vastly reducing the amt. we can expect? I watched last night at 6, and will catch you again tonight. Thanks! Have a great day!
Yes, amazingly we could end up with almost nothing.
Posted by: Mike at November 14, 2006 9:55 AM
Pardon me for saying this, but your comment sounds an awful lot like something from our last cycle. I understand a new cycle is in place, I just hope you're right about December. Right now, things don't look so good. Dry, dry, dry. Oh well, the storms do what they want to do and it can't be helped. I'll keep my fingers crossed for the next one.
Yes, this is frustrating, but I am not surprised at all. Now, if we are sitting here one month from now and at least one or two storms haven't hit us then I will be done! I anticipate we will be happy within one month, at least "weather" happy.
Posted by: Kris Wells at November 14, 2006 10:18 AM
Gary, same old song and dance!!!!!!!! I have no confidense the rest of the winter.I guess I will move to Vail,Co. to see any snow.
I will move to Vail with you! One of these days. Let's see how we feel in December before we throw away this season.
Posted by: Michael at November 14, 2006 10:34 AM
Looks like an interesting storm MAY develop in the middle of the country around the 25th thru 27th of November........which looks to coincide with your "pattern theory" (from a comment I saw you made several days ago). Now whether it develops or not is a question, but if something like this does verify, does it looks cold enough to make things interesting?
It is way too early to tell. The day 10 through 15 time frame is beginning a nice trend towards exciting weather, but it is just too far off to have much reliability.
Posted by: Bruce Richardson at November 14, 2006 10:49 AM
Kids are sorry to see the snow leave Wed.'s forecast; it's only Nov. 14 I reminded them...I noticed an abundance of very cold air settling across interior Alaska and across the Yukon and Northwest Territories (Dawson -32 C, Whitehorse -23 C, Fairbanks -18 F). Any chance that cold air builds and heads south?
There is no indication of a true building Arctic airmass at this point. But, it could happen fast. I think we have a big warming trend first.
Posted by: brad seitter at November 14, 2006 11:10 AM
I have watched and read your winter forecast this year and in previous years. My question is this: If a pattern is out there and you are able to read this pattern, couldn't you then, predict when the first snow storm would hit? If the pattern cycles and is predictable, then it seems as though snow storms could be predictable based on the theory of weather cycling. Also, based on this current pattern, are you able to make predictions about what kind of spring we may see? I think you are great and very accurate. You do a wonderful job and I watch you every night. I'm just not sure I buy into the weather pattern yet.
Yes! Once we know what the pattern and cycle are. Unfortunately, in November it is just our first guess (forecast). Once the first cycle is completed then we know much more and can project into the spring. It truly does and has helped us out tremendously. Even with this said, however, each situation is still a bit different.
Posted by: Erin at November 14, 2006 12:49 PM
Gary - I'll hope for .25 and settle for .10 - upper air maps will still be interesting to draw, if I sequence the evolution of this cut-off. KC doesn't seem to be able to really get many significant systems - last year, and now this new pattern. I will have to see much, much more in the way of action HERE before I change my mind. I actually don't mind missing snow as rain collects in the gauge much better, so I am different from other folks, I guess. But I enjoy a healthy dose of precip with a system, no matter the form, except ice. I still think the east coast is the place to be for truly significant storms during the winter - ours (even the best) pale in comparison to those I experienced as I was growing up outside of Boston. Those kind of storms just ain't gonna happen here - NO WAY. Sorry folks.
My hunches on a multi-year drought continuing, I believe, will prove correct, more or less, over the next year, or more potentially. And I really hope this statement is proven false, really I do!!! Oh well, nuff said. Dog will go back and curl in his corner and be grateful for weather scraps he does get.
Let's be patient, but at this moment chalk up another missed potential.
Posted by: StormDog at November 14, 2006 2:32 PM
when do you think we will have our next chance of Snow
I will let you know when I see something realistic.
Posted by: Andy at November 14, 2006 2:52 PM
So is this truly a bust? :-) This morning I heard on the radio Thunderstorms tonight and rain or snow tomorrow! What is up with that?
It was not your forecast, I think the forecast came from weather.com.
So, it is a BUST for those other sources but not us. We were leaning towards this being more of a storm but for TWO days now we have been backing off and last night I explained how we MAY see .01" and that is it. So, we hit this forecast and it is only a bust because of the other forecasts in town.
I may blog about this later.
Posted by: Brian at November 14, 2006 3:43 PM
I believe we are still in a weather trend similar to 1987. If you look at the day to day results from 1987 and adjust them about 5 days ahead, then we have almost an identical pattern. However, we are in an almost day to day pattern as last year. The coindence is real but when you adjust time frames, it comes up with a heavy snow about December 4th though the 6th. No white Christmas and a warmer than normal January. Then a wake up call in early February with heavy snow and arctic temps. (I believe this falls in your forecast.)
Given this, I don't see any measurable snow till around Dec. 4th to the 6th. And yes, I entered this in the snowflake contest about a month ago.
Let's see how everything evolves. I believe that this is unique and can't be compared to other years. It will be interesting.
Posted by: GaryB at November 14, 2006 4:35 PM
What's Thanksgiving weekend shaping up to be around the Upper Midwest? I'll be driving to and from Minneapolis that weekend...
Right now it looks good on the drive there. And, the pattern changes by the time you drive back. So, we will see how it sets up.
Posted by: Drew at November 14, 2006 4:39 PM
This track looks worse than all the rest that missed us. It is almost making a U shape just to miss us. Its hard to believe all these places to the North, west, south, and east will get some good rain, but not us.
I am starting to think this is gonna be another rough year getting any precip to come our way!!!
I doubt it is a tough year. But, let's see how we feel in a few weeks. Right now it is quite frustrating.
Posted by: joe at November 14, 2006 5:02 PM
Based on the comment above regarding the 25th-27th..made me think. I think that the GRC [or even the SMC.v2] will allow for something to get close, but never will we know until about a day or two out. Just like this storm..by patterns, this was a hit, since the pattern predicted the storm, but it just hit a bit off from KC. If you are within 200 miles a month or even a week away..that is a valid hit.
That being said, I think the 25th will be certainly another shot. Based on the cycles I see, this is in line. We should see Nov 25th, Nov 30th, skip Dec 5th, but again Dec.10th and 15th. This is why I think Gary's opinion of snow on Dec. 10th is viable.
Hmmmm..based on the cycle [if it holds], then Dec.20th should be a skip and Dec 25th should have something around us.
Maybe a white Christmas?
[I am getting bolder in my predictions now]
After missing a storm system like this we always feel like we are doomed forever. Let's see if any of your above thoughts come through. Right now the models show NOTHING. But, I only had 3 hours of sleep so I am a bit delirious this morning and not in the right direction.
Posted by: Scott at November 14, 2006 5:59 PM
The GFS looks terribly warm for next week, and it forecasts downslope winds. It is frustrating to not even see a decent ridge developing in the Pacific to give us some cold air. Why do we have to be located so far south in latitude? It makes the transistion to "winter" frustrating, especially this time of year.
We keep waiting for the stormier and exciting part of the pattern to return. These storm systems missing us just south and east are frustrating. Last year as we moved into December the major snowstorm came out of no where. Something better start happening by then.
Posted by: Devin at November 14, 2006 6:19 PM
How can you possible claim to have "18 days in a row" (Monday night's (Nov. 13) claim, when you forecast, on Friday night, for Saturday's high to be 50° and the official high was 45°? You're really stretching it, Gary. Don't make your "accuracy" game so important that you fudge the numbers!
There is no fudging of the numbers going on. For our accuracy check we have been using only Sunday through Thursday for years now. Perhaps we should use every day of the week and I will consider it as this would make more sense. My boss told us to not use Friday and Saturday's forecast because I am not there. But, this was for the sponsor.
Anyway, the streak ended yesterday. But, from now on we should use every day of the week.
Posted by: Lee at November 14, 2006 7:56 PM
I've got a funny feeling about this storm. Mark my words, something interesting is going to happen tonight into tomorrow.
I guess this wind is interesting.
Posted by: Shawn at November 14, 2006 7:59 PM
I am concerned that we are staying in this same dry weather pattern. I don't want snow but a soaking rain would have been nice. How does this current dry spell figure in with your winter weather prediction?
Dry in Grain Valley
We are beginning to cycle through this weather pattern. What is it exactly? We will know soon. I still see an exciting and wet part of this pattern returning as we get close to December. So, let's see if it does happen? When we miss a storm like this we always feel like it will never rain or snow again.
Posted by: Jeff at November 14, 2006 8:19 PM
GaryB's comment is pretty interesting! I am in the UMKC Conservatory wind ensemble and for the past 2 years our winter concert has been cancelled due to a large snowstorm always popping up on that day! I figure it may happen 3 years in a row, and our concert this year is Wednesday December 6. If GaryB's theory is right, that would be 3 years in a row! I'm counting on that for the snowflake contest too :) We'll just have to wait and see I guess!
Wouldn't that be fascinating? No sign of it now, but we have a lot of weather pattern to go through between now and then.
Posted by: Lauren at November 14, 2006 9:39 PM
Well, will it at least be windy? Even if there is no precip the wind does give you something to watch,BTW I remember last November was quite energetic with SNOW, then TORNADOES!, and even you Gary thought that your first hunch about last years pattern being boring was incorrect, but as the months passed the pattern's true colors showed through so maybe this year will be similar, except for the opposite reason.
Thanks for your time!(Looking forward to the Blogger meeting time!)
Nick in St. Joe!
We will figure out a date for the blogger meeting sometime soon. It will be in December.
At this moment we are waiting for the weather to get exciting, without leaving us disappointed. Last year was considered one of the more frustrating and boring patterns, and yet at this moment I would love some of the moments it produced. We just have to sit here and wait. So, let's see how we feel by the end of the month.
Posted by: Nick Rau at November 14, 2006 9:45 PM