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First Arctic front
It's FRIDAY! I was at the game last night and Jeremy filled in at 10 PM. I am back to work today and tracking this strong cold front. It is an Arctic front. How cold will the air be when it arrives here and will we see any snow? There is an upper level trough swinging by. If we can get a storm to form on its southern extent then we could see some snow here on Wednesday. But if everything stays phased then we will end up with just a few flurries.
Click to enlarge (500 mb flow valid Wednesday morning)
Once again, above you are looking at the 500 mb flow. This is about 18,000 feet up in the atmosphere. This is my favorite level to look at as it shows upper level storm systems so well, and 500 mb is half way through the atmosphere in weight. 0 mb is the top of the atmosphere and our pressure near the surface is always around 1000 mb. This map shows a pretty strong trough swinging through the Rockies. If we get a well defined system to develop in the base of this trough then we have a chance of a snowstorm. But, we don't see this happening yet. A slight difference one way or the other will decide what happens at the surface and what we get to experience. Now, the surface can influence this upper level flow too. Let's see how this evolves.
The surface forecast for Tuesday night is on the map below. You can see the strong front moving through and the precipitation associated with this. Once again, if that upper level trough can be more pronounced on its southern end then we get more of a storm. If not, then we get a dramatic cold front passage and not much more.
Click to enlarge (Surface map valid Tuesday night)
We will be tracking this changing weather pattern closely. It is dry and it would be nice to at least get some rain.
Have a great weekend.
Posted by at November 24, 2006 11:05 AM
What is your feeling on next weeks storm, you leaning torward snow? If we do get snow is it likly the snow flake contest will end?
Thanks for Your time!
I am leaning on the no snow side, but only a slight change and I will change my mind.
Posted by: Anne at November 24, 2006 12:55 PM
Here in western Mn. we have not had any moisture since Sept. I hope we can get some out of this system. A few record highs recorded here in the last week. Good to see the Chiefs do well.
This next storm is strange. Let us know what you get out of it.
I am very happy about the Chiefs winning. They are in the playoff hunt, big time!
Posted by: Rod at November 24, 2006 5:10 PM
How are things? We should talk sometime....kinda surprised you post the lowly GFS on your blog...FLIP/FLOP/FLIP/FLOP/....
From my experience the GFS is the best model! But, I look at everything.
Posted by: Mike Morgan at November 24, 2006 9:32 PM
I hope you guys all had a good Thanksgiving, I did.
As for this next front, looks dramatic, but will we get any precip? kind of pesimistic about that right now anyway.
BTW, is Mike Morgan an old collegue of yours?
Nick in St. Joe!
Mike is the Chief meteorologist at the NBC station in Oklahoma City. He and I went to college together and he has been at that station for a very long time now.
Posted by: Nick Rau at November 24, 2006 9:45 PM
Hello Mr. Lezak,
With the temperature being so cold, is there a chance of having ice rain?
Wednesday will be an interesting day. We could get anything from dry with the cold front to rain, thunderstorms, and then some sleet and snow, and maybe some freezing rain. I lean towards the lighter solution right now, but the latest data came out this morning with a nice one inch of precipitation.
Posted by: Ben Tracy at November 24, 2006 9:54 PM
This is completely off subject...but I just saw that NOAA issued their final winter forecast. Apparently you guys look at completely opposite things...
Yes, our forecast and theirs are almost complete opposites. Their forecast is really almost entirely based on the fact that we have El Nino this year. I think El Nino will have an influence, but the pattern overall will be battling with those El Nino anomalies. It may be quite the battle.
Posted by: Lance at November 25, 2006 2:59 AM
Sigh..I think I got the SMCv.2 to reallign, as the front for the 25th [today] is coming through..though very moderate. Following the SMCv.2 cycle back to the October pattern, Wed is evident. Here is the problem with the SMCv.2. I cannot predict any trend toward intensity or moisture. Only that something will be in the area. How does the GRC handle this situation?
Here is the SMCv.2 again...
5-Oct Cold Blast
13-Oct Cold Blast
21-Oct Cold Blast
30-Oct Cold Blast
5-Nov Missed Trough-though see Nov. 3rd blog entry
25-Nov Boring Front
Nov 25th corresponds to October 10th as per Gary's blog entry on 21st, the 22nd looks like October 6th.
If you look three days later from October 10th - October 13th..per the SMCv.2, COLD BLAST, and this will correspond to Nov 28th/29th.
Lets see if the trend is truely cycling now...if so, it should be defined now above...if not...on to v.3... ;-)
Is this driving you nuts yet? Until we really see the true pattern it is always quite frustrating. Today's GFS run is yet again a completely different solution, but fitting better with what I believe will happen.
Posted by: Scott at November 25, 2006 8:55 AM
Gary, how bad will it hit the northland? Tommorrow I would really love to not have school. right now its not snowing! PLEASE tell me that there is going to be more!
Posted by: Feness Hazley at November 30, 2006 5:33 PM