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Gary,
Didn't you say a few days ago that you thought our first snow might not be until December 10th or so? We just need to give the pattern the chance to work itself out-have no fear! We'll just have to see what happens in the next couple of weeks which is hard, I'm sure, when you're looking at it every day. Just keep up the accurate daily forecasts!
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Erin,

Yes, you are right. My prediction for the first one inch of snow is December 10th at 4:35 PM. So, as I have been preaching........be patient. It is getting harder though.

Gary

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Gary...something broke the SMCv.2. I think it happened about 7-10 days ago. My projected intervals are off if I belive the maps. I have something per the cycle due here on the 25th, and now it looks like the 28th. It kinda resembles the early October activity, but different. I do not like the models at all this year. They are stuggling. I think I must just give up on this year in forecasting and enjoy the ride and give my thoughts on 2-3 days out. Long term forecasting is for the birds. [Unless of course you get paid for it] ;-)
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Scott,

Projecting a forecast into the longer range is almost impossible. Even if you believe in my theory, which has happened again by the way, the specifics of a long range forecast are really just a guess. I would love our winter forecast to verify and I hope it does. But, more importantly to me at this point is to figure out what the pattern is. Find out what we think the length of the cycle is. And, then we will be able to predict with more accuracy for the rest of the year.

This years pattern is very strange and still showing what it can or can not do. We must not be pulled into the models prediction. I firmly believe now that we are going back to the first week of October at this moment. What comes next should be some very good chances for precipitation whether or not the computer model knows this. We do!

Gary

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Happy Thanksgiving indeed!

I have a couple of questions
-What are the "models" that everyone keeps referring to? Are there a couple of key ones that the average person can find on the Internet?

-I sure get confused by this weather pattern and what it is doing now. Let's assume for the moment that El Nino is/will have a big influence on the weather pattern.
Well, all forecasts I've seen based on this call for warmer and drier weather in the northern tier of the US, and stormier/wetter weather in the southern tier. Now consider what has happened and the map shown for Tues. 11/28: I haven't seen any storms forming and coming out of the southwestern US! What gives?
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Doug,

Our winter forecast is VERY different from those others you are talking about. You can just click on weather and then winter forecast to see the differences. HUGE differences.

We believe "El Nino" has a small influence on the weather pattern. Something much bigger is going on. I think Southern California will have a few wild moments this winter, but only a few that will get them close to average. It is because of the pattern that has set up. If we had a wet weather pattern setting up for Southern California then El Nino could make it crazy there, but this is not the weather pattern this year.

Let me know what you think.

Gary

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Gary,
I can not believe how cold the 6Z GFS has us for next week. The 850 temps drop to -15C at around 192 hours. Thickness levels drop down to 522mb? That would be great! That would be amazing if this were to verify. It might verify if the snowpack increases in the northern high plains and southern Canada. Now if we could only get some rain or snow...
Devin
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Devin,

Yes, this cold front looks strong. It should be a fun week to track it, and then the entire weather pattern becomes quite interesting.

Gary

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I'm still sticking with the pattern of 87' which has been amazingly close, which that year it was 61' on Nov. 23rd which was followed by a Arctic front that lasted from Nov. 26th to Dec. 1st. Then a brief warm up from the 1st to the 13th. Pretty much right on track with what I sent you back in September, although it's a bit warmer and dryer than expected now. That year, we had a blizzard on the 14th. My snowflake contest was Dec. 11., so I have my fingers crossed. I don't think we'll have a 12 inch blizzard, but I think we all agree a couple inches are in there for that week.
GaryB
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GaryB,

The pattern certainly is becoming more interesting! It will be shocking if our first snow doesn't come around the date you are talking about.

Gary

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This isn't related to the weather persay, but if Brett's still under the weather, I have a suggestion:

When I had a really bad, persistent cold last year, I took 6 Nature Made chewable Vitamin C tablets in one go, and the next morning the cold had completely cleared my system, even though it'd been sticking around for some two or more weeks.

I've found that taking at least two Vitamin C tablets every day helps keep me from catching colds as often.

~~~

I hope that we'll soon get some snow and that your December 10th guess turns out correct. I loved that big 10"-13" snow we had last December, but hated that that was pretty much all we got all winter. But, hey, at least that still made your initial forecast right on the dot! Hopefully this year will be the same and your initial forecast will be fulfilled--I like the idea of 25" of snow for winter!

Joy
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Joy,

I like what I am seeing right now, but we better get hit by at least one snowstorm in December.

Gary

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Gary,

I see that you have updated the 7 day forecast, and have the high for nwext wednasday as 34! Does that mean any snow for us? I looked at the newest models and it looks some what promising for some snow. What do you think?

Andy
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Andy,

We may see a few flurries, but the storm tracks north of us and it is very difficult for us to see any snow when this happens.

Gary

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Hello Mr. Lezak,
Any chance of any snow coming down with the arctic front?
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Ben,

I think we will see a few snowflakes, but this is likely NOT a good situation to produce snow. I have a feeling we will have a very good chance before the middle of December.

Gary

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Gary,
You are freaking, dude, listen, I have total hope right now. I see and feel it coming together. You and Jeff calm down, both of you. Yes you can say it has been dry, but I can say I have had a lot of rain this month. 2 and a half inches. So that at least shows hope very close you. Also the the jet strengthen, it is going to be ok.
Doug Heady
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Doug,

It is happening!!!!!

Gary