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Happy Thanksgiving & a strong cold front
Click to enlarge (500 mb flow valid Monday night)
Click to enlarge (Surface valid Monday night)
Click to enlarge (Surface valid Wednesday morning)
The above series of maps show the weather pattern for early next week. An Arctic high has formed and is moving into the United States. This will be a very cold air mass and when the cold front moves through Wednesday it should be quite noticeable. There may be some rain and maybe a few snowflakes after the cold air gets here. We must watch this closely. As you look at the base of the trough on the 500 mb map there is a wave. If this feature is deeper and sags further south then we could have a band of snow. But, as is the chance would be quite slim.
Happy Thanksgiving! Have a great day and let's hope this evolves in a way that will be more exciting than just a strong cold front!
Gary
Posted by at November 23, 2006 7:49 AM
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This has nothing to do with weather, but just wanted to say Happy Thanksgiving to Gary and crew.
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Keri,
Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family! Thanks.
Gary and the NBC Action weather team
Posted by: Keri Worley at November 23, 2006 7:53 AM
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That would sure be nice. We could use it. Sure hope to see some snow soon. Though it's only November it seems as though it's taking forever. Have a blessed Thanksgiving!
Matt Maisch
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Matt,
It doesn't look good for any snow with this system. Hopefully it will look better soon.
Gary
Posted by: Matt Maisch at November 23, 2006 8:47 AM
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This low appears to be a momentary blip, with most of the moisture carrying northeast of us into Illinois. Backfilling the area (by Friday) is the same old scenario we've been in for a while. If my interpretation is correct, this continues to set up the pattern that spells long term trouble for us and a repeat performance of last winter. Perhaps I should hold off on winterizing my Harley as it looks like I'll have some riding time this winter. Happy Thanksgiving Gary.
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Chicago David,
I think it will be much colder than last winter. There will be some warm stretches just like we are experiencing now. But, watch out. It will be very cold for some long stretches as well.
Gary
Posted by: Chicago David at November 23, 2006 9:35 AM
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Hello Mr. Lezak,
How long do you think the cold air will stay with us?
Hopefully long enough for snow creek to start making some snow.
Any good chances of snow yet? Any chance next week?
Have a great Thanksgiving.
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Ben,
Still uncertain!
Gary
Posted by: Ben Tracy at November 23, 2006 1:05 PM
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Gary - Due to the dessicated state of the new weather pattern, and the dismal chances of significant rainfall, despite the possibility of colder weather, I believe our weather is as boring as your home town, LA, so I am nominating KC to change its name to "Los-Angeles-On-The-Missouri". And I might add, at least they have the marine layer to play with!!! I believe this November was more boring than last. So how can a weather pattern be worse than last years? - just watch wait and see - 2007 bodes ill for activity, so far.
Oh well, saves on gas bills and driving on ice.
Dog
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Storm Dog,
Don't count your chickens before they hatch! I do know how it feels and looks right now. But, let's just see where we are in two weeks. Give this pattern two more weeks and we will know if we are doomed again, or if it is going to come through for us. It is tough waiting, but during this dry spell we missed a wet storm just south of us. It should have produced two weeks ago and this dry spell wouldn't have been so pronounced. But, it did miss us even though we were in the middle of a deep trough. It should not miss us the next time.
Gary
Posted by: StormDog at November 23, 2006 6:30 PM
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Gary,
I noticed you dropped the tempature down for next thursday. If this system sets up just right could we be looking for our first snowfall. I am ready for some real snow.
Thanks.
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Jeff,
If it sets up right it will snow. But, if it doesn't set up at all, well you know what happens. There has yet to be one computer model solution with more than a flurry. But, it doesn't mean it can't change. It would only take a slight adjustment and boom, we are excited.
Gary
Posted by: Jeff at November 23, 2006 8:02 PM
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Gary,
The 18Z GFS seems to be backing off on the cold air for Wednesday and Thursday. The 850 temps are not cold at all compared to the 12Z run for the Wed/Thurs period. Do you still expect the arctic air to come next week, or by next weekend?
Devin
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Devin,
It still looks just as cold to me. The 850 temperatures are important but not the key in these shallow Arctic airmasses.
Gary
Posted by: Devin at November 23, 2006 9:00 PM
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