Snow heading our way from kansas and spreading out!

************
Snow heading our way from kansas and spreading out!
-----------------
Charles,

I see it. But I need a bit more evidence before I get excited.

Gary

*********************
Gary:

Sorry to bother you-is it a good sign that snow is already breaking out in South West Kansas? My 2 fears: 1. The track does indeed switch. 2. All the rain (freezing) in central Missouri robbing the moisture. While I think there is snow in south west Kansas it looks like it is getting somewhat ripped apart as it gets to Emporia-too much dry air?? But again to my untrained eye I think it is good we at least have snow developing to our South and west-if that was not there yet I would be real worried. I guess all things gives, 5-10 inches on 11-30 is still on heck off an event for this area. Again, as I said in the blog below, good luck to you today-you have a tough job sdorting all this out-I know, no matter what the weather brings, you will do an excellent job!!!
--------------------------
Bill,

Yes, thank you for the support. It still looks on track. I am a bit concerned that the low could go further south and then we could be rather disappointed. And, then I will really need your support because you know what everyone would say. But, this is why it is nervous time. I do like the radar echoes but the upper low hasn't shown itself yet. Once the comma cloud forms I will know. I am an expert at comma clouds. It hasn't developed yet. We just need to get into it and then a lot of snow will fall very close to KC.

Gary

***********
Gary-

I must admit that I am a bit worried this morning about this storm. Even though the models are wanting to give us a pounding, I think that something will drastically change. It is not very often that Kansas City actually gets a storm of the severity. None the less..It should be interesting to see the latest updates.
--------------
Bryan,

It is unusual for us to get hit by storm of this strength. But, someone will get hit. This is the problem. We will be close. It is hard to get one of these this close. Come on! It is nervous time.

Gary

**************
Gary:
I don't expect you to respond to this but I will say it anyway: forget what they say-you had the guts to make the call based on the data before you-even if this does not pan out to be historic, when you made the call it was-forecasting winter events here is I think, harder than any weather in the Continental US-just nearly impossible. Don't let them get you down-you made the right call-one of these days, if by chance this does not pan out, one will pan out and we will get clobbered-you did the right thing-called it like you see it-please don't ever stop doing that!!!!! By the way, I see more action starting down in Oklahoma heading this way on satelite-I think-oh well, schools in Lawrence weren't cancelled so now I have to figure out excactly what I am going to teach today-maybe meteorology 101!!!!! Good luck sir-remember, you made the right call based on the evidence that was there!!!
------------------
Bill,

There you have me in a nut shell. This is how I forecast the weather every day. I will go with what I think will happen. But, if this storm misses the backlash will be severe.

Anyway, I can now see the comma on radar and it is way south over west Texas. It is not turning northeast yet. When it turns in the next hour or two hopefully it will make a harder left turn otherwise we are done. This is what I do well too. I will be the first to pull it out of the forecast if I have too. But, this is the part of forecasting no one understands.

Let's hope for that hard turn. I believe we will know within three hours or so. A painful three hours.

Gary

***********
Gary,

Don't worry....the storm just is throwing you a curve ball on that last run. Do you think the low and the comma cloud will appear in the next few hours?? I am having a tough time pinpointing the exact upper low from the NOAA satellite....where is it exactly right now?
-------------
Bruce,

It is appears to be located near the Texas/New Mexico border west of Lubbuck. We will know a lot more by 8 AM.

Gary

No School in Platte County !!!

***************
I am only a weather buff, no expert, but I like what I am seeing from the satellite and the radar. I thought I saw the low on the NM/Texas border and it looked as if the southern movement had stopped and it was headed more east. I would guess it could even follow the cold front that looks to have stalled in central MO.

The lighting up of the radar looks encouraging to me because it appears will start snowing in the morning.
-----------------------
Brian,

The echoes are not substantial enough yet. If this storm is going to hit then it should become obvious before noon. But, the snow may hold off until later in the day.

Gary

**********
I know all of you snowhounds are getting very excited, but I wouldn't mind seeing this track south a bit! 5 to 6 inches in the KC area is enough for me!

Gary, I'm sure you'll keep your eye on this all day and I can't imagine anyone pointing a finger at you saying, "YOU SAID...!!!", because if they're paying attention, you've already explained well why and how this storm could leave us high and dry.

Good luck and have a great day! Looks like sleep will elude you a bit longer! - mike
----------------
Mike,

You know that. I know that, but a lot of viewers and listeners don't know that.

Let's just hope I am not explaining why we got missed later on today. It still may happen. It always feels this way as a storm is developing.

Gary

*****************
Is the a list of all the guesses for the first inch of snow contest? My sons guess was today at 4 pm.
----------------------
Todd,

We have over 4,000 entries to go through. 4 PM today may be perfect if this storm comes in.

Good luck. There are probably around 50 people that chose today. So, getting close is very important.

Gary

*************
If it does not make a hard left turnn than how much snow do you expect?
------------
Charles,

If this storm goes 75 miles further south then we could get nothing. 75 miles to a storm is like one step for you and me. This is why it is so delicate and how our forecast can change so dramatically.

Gary

-------------------
Gary,

At least you are making sure we are all properly warned in advance, just in case we get 15 inches of snow. And the NWS is forecasting 8-14 inches for us, so you are not completely out there on a limb. I appreciate all of your hard work, and hope you get a chance to get a little rest at some point.
------------------
Chip,

Yes, their forecast was 12 hours behind mine, but I don't want all of us to be wrong. This storm is going to produce a lot of snow, but will we be in it?

Gary

***********
Also believe it or not, the NWS was forcasting it to line right up with a north west turn but not to sharp across south eastern Kansas and into cantral Missouri. They are the ones that issued the Heavy Snow Warning too. they are calling for 1.5 in around St. Joseph, 4-6 in North of Platte City, 5-9 in from Kansas City to Platte City, 8-14 in south of KC, and 10-16 in Aroun Harrixonville.
--------------------
Charles,

New data comes out very soon and we will know if this storm is turning. It will be close.

Gary

*****************
Hey Gary-just me again-I'm sitting here with my seven year old son (he is as crazy about this as me!!) and we are watching the radar in Texas-maybe I'm just willing this, but it looks like it is beginning to head north north east-am I just seeing things?? Or am I just wishing and being like 1984 and convincing myself that 2 plus 2 equals 5??? Thanks for all the responses-I'm just obsessed with this storm!!!
--------------------
Bill,

A lot of us are obsessed with this storm. The radar echoes in Oklahoma are real and racing towards southern Kansas. Let's track this new development closely.

Gary

*************
Gary,

I can understand that the 'backlash' would be severe if this storm falls apart. But like the above post said, you reported what the data showed, and I haven't seen any other hard predictions out there (although since you're my weather guy I don't watch anyone else).

Anyway, no matter what happens you'll remain our weather guy. Not only are you usually exactly (+- 3) correct, you are passionate about what you do. My wife and I are scientists at KU Med and we love watching your forcasts especially during big storms like this. You should let more people know about this blog. This would allow you to explain what the storm is doing in a more complete sense to those that will want to criticize. I just found this about an hour ago. It's really quite facinating to watch how this has developed.

Keep doing what you're doing. Good science is hard to find.

Kevin
------------------
Kevin,

Thank you so much! Well, the new data is coming out soon. I like the radar echoes in Oklahoma racing this way. Let's see if this storm will make the northward turn.

Gary

Gary,
SO, with the ice storm waring we had yesterday, is it still possible that MYABE we could see some chance for freezing rain or sleet? And how about ice? Is there a chance that there could be some ice underneath that snow? And you were right. Your snowfall amount WAS like no other station in town. Good job. Keep up the work.
----------------
Alden,

No, the temperatures throughout the entire lower atmosphere are now below freezing. So, any precipitation that falls will be snow.

Gary

**************
I just went outside and had to put salt down on our driveway it is a very steep hill and we need to get winter stuff (gloves, hats) and I could barly stand the cold the wind chill at KCI is 1 and I definatly belive that also the ice is approx 1/2 in think here in Platte City.

Charles,

It is cold! Now will it snow?

Gary

****************
Gary:

Radar seems to show where the northern edge will be-that one line around Manhatan looks to be the northern edge as it is beginning to head east-it seems to me that your call on St. Joe being the Northern edge is developing right now-unfort. my site I get water vapor lost the last image but it looks like the Low is beginning its jog to the North. Also, it seems that the radar returns in Oklahoma are heading pretty directly north east-maybe the heavy stuff will be just a tad south of KC metro but it looks like this is comming together. That being said, it also looks like the ridge in the South East is breaking a bit which could allow this to go more east. I don't want to see the models-they have flip flopped so much-I feel like I'm bass fishing!!!! Sorry to write again, but now I have a 3 year old and a 7 year old following this with me-on my lap no less!!!
----------------
Bill,

There are some good signs right now. Let's hope that northern edge stays north of us. I don't want to leave the kids disappointed.

Gary

***************
Nervous time is right. This is going to be too close for comfort.
-------------------
Snowlover,

I am a snowlover too! Come on north! We should know within an hour or two.

Gary

*******************
Hang in there Gary..

I know you will let us know what's going on, the good, bad, and in between. I agree with the others, this blog is fantastic. It's so great to come here and read EVERYTHING. Since you only have a limited time on air this blog makes all the difference. We love your passion, enthusiasm, and most of all your honesty when it comes to the weather. I'm not sure how many other meterologists do without sleep the way you do ;)

I'll be checking here off and on all day to see what's going on. This is how we start on day is with you and Brett, everday. Hopefully you'll get some rest before you go on air this evening. Again, hang in there, we know you are looking out for everyone :)
------------------
Donna,

Thanks! Brett, Jeremy, Jeff, and I have been in communication all morning trying to figure this out. I hope we don't miss it. We will know soon.

Gary

***************
Hey Gary!
I found this weather blog yesterday and love it! Yesterday, my husband and I were watching the weather and I told him "wait...we HAVE to see what Gary says before we make our plans for tomorrow!". We absolutely LOVE you and we have for years. My husband says I am obsessed with the weather and I probably am but it's fun! It's good to know I am in good company. :-) I LIVE for snow!! I am keeping my fingers crossed along with everyone who posted above. Good luck, Gary! We love you no matter what happpens!
Samantha in Liberty
---------------------
Samantha,

Thank you so much.

Gary