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Latest afternoon trends on the storm
Good afternoon everyone,
We are getting a lot of comments today, so I will likely just post them without commenting today.
The Arctic cold front is on the move and will come through earlier around midnight tonight. So, this is factor #1. Factor #2 is the upper level storm which is SLIGHTLY further north and better organized on the latest NAM model. The threat of snow is still 36 hours away. I have seen many situations where we think we will get snow and there is no chance in Omaha. And, then Omaha gets it. Ejecting storm systems often lift further north so let's keep tracking this as I am still thinking this could be just a bit too far south. And this is sad for snow lovers. But, hold onto that little bit of hope and watch our newscasts tonight as we track this storm.
Click to enlarge (We need this storm to close off and be just a bit further north)
Posted by at November 28, 2006 2:43 PM
Darn, well at least it is a dramatic weather system coming through, but we should be in or near October's part of the pattern, so maby more chances will start showing up!
Nick,(windblown) in St. Joe!:)
Posted by: Nick Rau at November 28, 2006 2:52 PM
As you know from previous posts, being from New England, I am a big-time snow lover. I miss it a ton and would love for my two- and three-year-olds to experience some of the fun we used to have -- sledding, building igloos, making snow forts, and throwing some pretty mean snowballs. A 26-inch winter, as you've predicted, still seems like so little compared to some of the 120-inch winters I've experienced.
However, even without the snow, I've learned quite a bit more about weather (not just here but in general) through this blog. Thanks a ton!
Posted by: Matt P at November 28, 2006 3:07 PM
It looks as though you are still leaning towards a 90% chance of precip tomorrow-what form will that be in? Snow, ice, rain?
Posted by: Erin at November 28, 2006 3:24 PM
Keeping my fingers crossed for some snow!!
Hopefully this thing will move a bit northward and give us a shot for at least some snow. Will we have significant ice accumulations?
Keep up the good work Gary!
Posted by: Bill Scott at November 28, 2006 3:25 PM
OK Gary--No Snow ???? I'm really bummed out.
Posted by: Pat at November 28, 2006 3:31 PM
This makes some since that the storm could lift out further north. The cold air will take some time moving south and east before the depth of the cold throughout all layers of the atmosphere is present. I am thinking Southern Missouri may see more mixed precipitation than snow.
Posted by: Devin at November 28, 2006 3:42 PM
It's going come further north and we'll get plenty of snow. :-D
Posted by: Shawn at November 28, 2006 4:29 PM
As you've said, this storm can go anywhere it wants to, as they all do. I still believe in the 87 pattern, which would show a significant snow a week from Friday. We've pretty much followed that pattern, but we are actually dead on to last years almost to the day. Even last year, it snows next Friday.
It is more like October 16th than 1987. But I hope you are right.
Posted by: GaryB at November 28, 2006 4:35 PM
Thanks for the comments. It appears like this is a very tricky forecast. NWS STILL has us under the watch, and they are forecasting an ICE STORM. They have not backed down, so I am not sure what to think. I trust your forecast, and if we do get snow, I would rather have you say we were not going to get it, and have it turn out to be a surprise then have you say we will get a foot, and nothing happens. Either way, I know you cannot win. Anyway...good luck!
I agree. So, now that there is only a very slight chance. How exciting would it be to come up further north.
Posted by: Brian at November 28, 2006 4:56 PM
Do you see an Ice Storm out of this, how long will the freezing rain last hours wise? Thanks
Posted by: Anne at November 28, 2006 6:55 PM
I am confused. If the storms goes a little north will we see snow. I know that if it goes south then we wont get anything at all. I noticed the NWS has issued a winter weather watch. It says that the storm is going to pass right over us. What is you opion on that.
Posted by: Jeff at November 28, 2006 7:12 PM
The 500 mb looks better for tomorrow wouldn't you say...?
Posted by: Tyler at November 28, 2006 7:34 PM
Am i mistaken or does the 500mb look better for tomorrow...?
Posted by: Tylerpanther at November 28, 2006 7:35 PM
Well I would have to say the chance of any significant winter weather in Kansas City is pretty slim at this point..unless the models all of the sudden decide to flip the coin again like they did this morning. I noticed that the NWS just said that the Arctic front should be near KCI around midnight tonight! So it appears to be moving much faster then they thought. Any ideas Gary as to what that could mean for us in terms of wintry weather?
Posted by: Bryan at November 28, 2006 7:48 PM
Well Gary, so far I beleive in your forecast, and I beleive Another Storm Bites the dust. By that I do not mean it is a bust, because you have not called for a major evnet just yet....I guess there is still hope....I think NWS needs to back down, but I would not be surprised to see them issue a warning...they tend to be over zelous when they do not need to be, and under zelous when they need to be....you at least look at all the details.
I just heard a teaster on one of the other stations that is calling for Ice. Wow....
I am glad I watch your forecaasts...
If there is any ice it would come near sunset or later Wednesday evening, then snow is possible.
Posted by: Brian at November 28, 2006 7:59 PM
Keep hope alive!
The data is looking a bit better again.
Posted by: Jay C. at November 28, 2006 8:11 PM
Hey Gary...with the arctic front passing through sooner than expected, does this change our chances for frozen precipitation? Does it also factor into the track of the low digging out of the rockies that could be the snow producer for us here in northern MO?
It is looking a bit more likely for snow on Wednesday night. Let's see if this trend continues.
The front coming through earlier is a factor, but the cold air may slow its southward plunge during the day on Wednesday. Tough forecast!
Posted by: Heidi at November 28, 2006 8:35 PM