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Oh you are making two kids ( the 2 older ones) from Alaska VERY happy. We pray you are right! Now do you have anything for helping kids sleep when they are so excited ?
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Ken,

Let's see what happens. We better not miss this.

Gary

YES!!!

Gary,

I commented your blog yesterday saying it was going to be high and dry snowfall wise. I live in the Richmond Missouri Area and was wondering how much snow will fall in this area? Since i only caught a glimpse of your updated snowfall forecast totals. Bring on the SNOWFALL!!

thanks,

Tim

Wow.. From nothing to INCOMING!! :) Welcome to a Midwest winter. All chaos, then bang!

Nice tracking Gary. I saw you got swamped today by all the blog material, but the forecast desk needed you worse.

Gary,
What can we expect for Overland Park over the next 48 hr period. I am glad to see the moisture pulling up north.
Thanks.

I'm so excited!!! I can hardly wait for it to start snowing!!!

Bring it home!!! Here we go!!!! Our turn!!!

Matt Maisch

You're pretty much always right, so I'm trusting you on this one! I'm glad you're not afraid of forecasting high storm totals even when everyone else is!

Gary...WOW!! We deserve a goob bout o snow.
hopefully the models don't pull the system too far north. If we could get some thunder snow, would that enhance the totals? Thanks for your time.
Kirk

What are you forcasting for Platte city or just north of KCI

Hi Gary!
I just watched your snow totals on the news but can't tell exactly where Independence falls in. About how much snow is expected in Independence?
Thanks,
Rachel

What happened? I am wayching the 5:00 news when it should be the 6:00 news???

Are we looking at a similar forecast for the Lawrence area?

WOW Gary!!!! I'm so excited and so are my kids!!!! You've done such a great job and my family loves watching your forcasts. How is breezy handling the frozen grass? This is the 1st winter for my dog and she isn't quite sure what to think!!! Anyway, thanks for all you do!!!

***************
OH MY GOD! I HOPE YOUR RIGHT GARY! I LIVE IN LEE'S SUMMIT AND THE FACT THAT WE COULD SEE OVER 12" OF SNOW, IT TAKES MY BREATH AWAY!!! THIS IS SO WEIRD, BECAUSE YESTERDAY, YOU THOUGHT WE WOULD ONLY SEE FLURRIES, AND NOW OVER 12"! WOW!!! YOU BETTER BE RIGHT! I WILL BE WATCHING YOU ON NBC AND NBC ACTION WEATHER PLUS EVERY CHANCE I GET! TALK TO YOU TOMORROW! (AFTER I SHOVEL MY DRIVEWAY!)

JACOB HONEYCUTT
LEE'S SUMMIT,MO
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Jacob,

The bigger part of the storm is not due in until Thursday afternoon and evening.

Gary

*********************
How much snow do you think Platte City will get?
------------------------
Charles,

Anywhere from 1" to 10" if this storm continues its northward trend.

Gary

***************
Gary and the team! Oh what do I say! I just truly hope that this event unfolds tomorrow like we are hearing now. I noticed that the NWS at 5pm update was talking about moving the Heavy Snow Warning further to the north based off of the new data that they are seeing. I watched you tonight at 6 and saw that you were calling for around 6 to 10 inches..I think and some people possibly getting over a foot of snow. This storm is enough to make people go bald from pulling their hair out! I just hope that it does give us the snowfall that we deserve!

*******************
Keep us updated tonight on the blog Gary, it was a long wait from this morning! :)

Bryan
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Bryan,

I know it was a long wait. It was a tough afternoon of excitement and work to study all of the data.

You gotta love a weatherman who wants it to snow! C'mon now...only 10 inches? They get more snow than that in Washington DC and you KNOW it's warmer there than it is here. (All that hot air from Capital Hill!)

More...more. Everybody stay home and enjoy this.

Gary - WOOHOO WOOHOO My two Huskies are loving the colder weather and the ice. They can't wait for the snow!!!

Hi Gary,
I noticed on the 5PM and 6PM weathercasts that your snowfall forecast indicated two bands of snowfall in the south divided by I-35. Any thought on why that would be the case? For example, I live in Gardner, which is just west of I-35, and it looked like we would miss out the heaviest snow, but if you headed east, crossing I-35, you would get the next band. Just wondering...thanks.

Commahead on demand. It will continue to come north..just wait. I am thinking 6+ for most of the metro with 12+ for most of the SE side.

The storm seems to be dying down will we see any more tonight develop or is this it for the night?

What a fascinating week weather-wise. This has been a genuinely enjoyable week to be a meteorologist, even if occasionally frustrating. From the model progs from the weekend giving us the storm to the jog southward in yesterday's 12Z runs (even causing many around here to rip on the NWS for posting a Winter Storm Watch that ended up being spot-on) to the slow evolution back toward the northern solution.

And so it goes...and begins again with the models waffling over tomorrow's QPF. While it is might end up being a bit of a stretch in backing the system too far N and W, the 18Z NAM solution is fun to entertain for us KS snowlovers, showing 1.25-1.75" of 24-hr total QPF (10"+ of snow)over much of the KC region, including a lobe well into NE KS on the 48hr (ending 18Z Friday).

***********
Hi Gary,
I enjoy your blog and the info you present. I do have one small question. Do you still think the NWS jumped the gun when they issued their Winter Storm Watch Monday night?
-----------------
Aaron,

I still do think so. When they issued it they had no idea that this storm was going to take a northern turn. If this storm would have continued on the southern track then that Winter Storm Watch wouldn't have verified. Sometimes it is good to be right for the wrong reason which is how they ended up right in this instance.

Gary

I noticed that the precipitation was starting to taper off is this the end for the night or do we expect more???

Gary I pray that us up north of Platte City dont get left out. Let us know if the trend is still pushing north. Thanks mike in DeKalb

***************
I noticed on national radar a large area of sleet and Freezing rain developing in Northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas heading our way.
-------------------
Charles,

I just went to look and I see what you are talking about. It will be cold enough to snow within a few hours so let's see if these echoes continue lifting northward.

Gary

*************
Gary:

First of all awesome job the past 3 days-just a fantastic job of keeping all this together. I am from Lawrence and we have had some pretty good sleet today-took my son sledding behind my bike!!!!-I am on some weather boards and looked at the snow output for the 18Z NAM-incredible!! I am too nervous to even look at the 0z runs-I really don't know how you do it!!! My question: is the fact that the front is further south than the models show a problem with thier output? I have a horrible feeling that the 0z runs are going to jog this thing way south like on Monday. Time will tell!!Keep up the great work-you and your team are excellent!!!
---------------
Bill,

I have never felt better about a storm than this one. Of course the sick feeling could arrive at any time, but I like what I see.

The cold air stopped surging in today which is a GREAT sign of the further north movement of the storm system.

Gary

************
Gary,

I hate to nitpick, but you are ignoring the fact the the NWS only issued the winter storm watch for the first portion of the winter weather (today's stuff) and that was nearly 48 hours in advance. The initial watch only covered the ice storm not the second storm. It seems as if they were the most consistant on this system and the following storm. I think I remember a time were you even lowered your chances for tomorrow down to 30%, when they had 50 and higher going. One needs to be careful to not hug the models too much.

I think you should give credit where credit seems to be due. This looks like it was a very difficult storm to track, and everyone, even you, had trouble with it.
--------------
Jeff,

If you get to no me better you will realize that I will give credit where credit is due. Enough said! They deserve it, but again for the wrong reason.

Gary

Ok, 12" or more snow around here seems like a long shot considering our track record the past few winters. Do you still feel like Johnson county MO could be hit hard, or is the trend to carry the heaviest amounts away?

I am a 4th grade teacher, and my students were so excited today to see the wintery mix! (Just in time after teaching a lesson on solids, liquids, and gasses!)

You could say they are a a little superstitious...they came up with the idea that they should all wear their pajamas backwards to bed tonight in hopes of a significant snowfall!

Hey Gary, I have been watching this storm over the SW and is there a chance this thing will wrap up to soon and stretch out and not snow more than a couple of inches on its best track?

Looking at the water vapor it almost looks as if its starting to do that.

Tell lawrence to cancel school please~!~

Last night, my aching joints told me that a big on was on the way. They are never wrong.

Gary,

Can we have another end-of-the-night update for those that couldn't watch the newscast tonight! My wife called me and said Greenwood could get 21 inches?!?! Am I dreaming? Why can't I be in town when this happens?!?!

Tim in GW (Minneapolis actually)

Just watched Gary's 10pm forecast...I have to say, I've lived in western Missouri my entire life (30 years), and I've never seen more than 10 inches of snow from one storm. 21 inches SE of KC? This is one I'm going to have to see to believe.

Tye in Maryville (and no snow for us...bummer)

**************
Gary- Great job in forecasting and tracking this incredible storm system! I work in Omaha and need to get home to my family in KC. What are your thoughts for my commute tomorrow? Do I stay in Omaha tomorrow or will I have a window to head back home. Safety is my foremost concern.

Thanks for all of your expertise!
------------------
Oscar,

Leave early.

Gary

WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You are really putting yourself out their for this snow storm huh Gary. I am just on the southern edge of the 21 inches you have forecasted for...man that would be soooo awesome. I live in Pleasanton,KS and alot of snow would thrill my three girls!!!!! Good luck with this forecast and I sure hope you end up correct or at least close or your critics will never let you forget it. Can't wait to see what happens. Monica

GARY, I have to go to college tomorrow now I won't be able to sleep, as you know I live in St. Joe, and although I am grateful for the ice storm ecxitement, this looks like another "Thanksgiving Eve" 2004 snow storm!!
I mean if some body sneezes in the jet stream it could literally mean the difference between flurries and the "Storm of the Century", Oh and I hope your computers are in good working order, you might have a record number of replies to this one:)
If it misses me at least I will get to see it on KSHBTV tomorrow!
Thanks for your hard work,dedication and time.
Nick(mind still boggling)in St. Joe!!

I have lived in KC for Forty Years and have never heard anyone call for 21 inches of snow!

Its official, you have lost your mind!

I hope it happens, I would love to see it

Alaskanpeople are loving more and more by the hour.. 21" possibly in my area !!! woo hoo! See what prayer of 2 kids (and 2 who wish they were still ) can do!

Gary,

I must say this storm has been hard for EVERYBODY. After your show at 10pm, I went to the NWS web site. They now have us under a heavy snow warning for up to 12 inches of snow. However, they must not have updated their actual forecasts because it only says about five - that could be the intenret too.

The NWS does tend to jump the gun, but perhaps this time they did ok, but I agree with Gary as well. NWS does not usually get that agressive. They cannot win. They issue it to soon, they "cry wolf," they issue it to late, "there was never enough warning," they "hype it to much," people get upset, they "do not hype it enough," people get upset. It is a tough game that weather forecasters have to play day in and day out. As much as I like you Gary, and as good of job as you do, you are not God, right? Only he can determine the final outcome. :-) It just helps to have him on your side. :-)

Certainly, the big question is where will the storm really track compared to where it is forecast to track?

That's always a forecast question but the implications here are HUGE as east and south of the storm we'll find record-challenging warmth and potentially severe thunderstorms as the cold front comes through. Along the path of the storm, mild rainy weather will be replaced by a sudden change to colder, allowing the rain to become icy and then change to snow before ending (that was today's part of the storm.) North and west of the storm, where the cold air has already become established, we'll find wind-whipped heavy snow. The battleground starts in north Texas and lifts northeast all the way to the interior Northeast.

Here is what I find very interesting:
Computer models have been ALL OVER THE PLACE with this storm, swinging wildly front east to west and then back again, only to change yet again 12 hours later! Traditionally, these models do not handle such situations well until the energy that is sparking the storm comes out of the Rockies and onto the Plains, which is forecast to happen tomorrow.

My biggest concern that this thing could end up being a bust, that is we end up with noting is DRY AIR. Being from Michigan, I have seen this happen so many times, the storm moves through, and there is the DRY SLOT. Gary, do you think it is possible that if this second storm would to turn against us so to speak, that part of that could be dry air? That is my biggest concern that it might "bite the dust." The thing is, if this storm turns out to be nothing, that means EVERYBODY from the NWS to all the tv and radio stations, TWC, ACCU WEAATHER would be wrong. That is why I think your forecast is right on as long as we do not get dry air! What do you think?

The bottom line: if you live within or are headed anywhere within a few hundred miles on a line from Dallas, Texas, to Cleveland, Ohio, be prepared for wild weather changes over the next few days, and keep up to date with the forecast, because it will surely be changing. Again.

Ok, that was long, but I had to share.
--------------------
Brian,

I agree, then disagree, then agree, then disagree with your statements. The dry air WILL NOT MATTER if the storm takes the right track. If it goes south the dry air is just an excuse. It will not be the reason. This is a powerful storm and it continues to trend a bit further north. We are now less than 12 hours away from it beginning. Yes, something can still go wrong. We have all seen it happen before. But, NOT THIS TIME!

Gary

Gary how much snow are you thinking for tonganoxie?!?

I feel like it is Christmas, and I'm waiting for all the presents!! The anticipation is KILLING me! I love snow!!! I used to live in Minnesota, and I loved waking up to a foot of snow like it was nothing. My kitties and I love the cold weather, so today was welcomed with open arms. I hope you are wrong, Gary, and we get two feet of snow :) I need the days off school.
Mary (Furball, Dot, Boots, and Nala)

************
Gary,

What a great blog! I like the details you put into it. Keep up the GREAT job!! We'll have to see how this snowstorm goes. My 8 year old was bouncing off the walls hoping school will be called off tomorrow. I have a new employee at work who is from New Orleans. This will be her first snowstorm!! What a storm for her first one!! We will have to see how she does driving in it!!
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Glenn,

Thank you and we are glad you are enjoying the blog. Now, let's get it to snow so she can enjoy her first snowstorm.

Gary

***************
For what its worth, the SREF nailed this thing 24-36 hrs ahead of the GFS. This is going to be HUGE. I knew the comma head would come up. It has done that the last 3 cycles of this storm. Knowing now that this is on a 35-40 day cycle, you can trace it back to Early Sept, to Mid Oct to now late Nov. [I expect to see this one again around Jan. 10th - mark my words] Look at the map on the Sept. 5th map for the Sept 8th. [Storm was 9-10th]

WICKED.

Here is an excerpt of Gary's blog entry -

"The latest data is indicating the generation of a weak upper level storm. This is over the Rockies by Friday morning and moving slowly our way. A cold front is also moving our way Friday and should slide into the region by Saturday. These two features could combine to bring us some heavy thunderstorms. "

DOES THIS SOUND FAMILIAR? Ejecting ULL from the four corners merging with a cold front???? Could combine to bring heavy [snow] thunderstorms?

Gary/team..look closely at those 3 days in Sept, you will find striking similarities in the ULL, the stalling front and the secondary front that pushes through. Same trends, just a bit weaker in Sept due to the jets.

THE SMC and subsequent SMCv.2 is in full effect. The SMCv.2 began as the GRC was established and has trended these storms nearly to a tee.

Gary, I think the GRC started earlier..maybe even a month earlier, but was too weak to see. You may have even eluded to it on your blog on Sept 8th when you said "After this goes by the entire weather pattern majorly changes" of the Sept 9-10. I think the SMC picked it up due to the pattern of storms, but not on the longwave/shortwaves as they were too weak to catch in late summer/early fall. I believe the SMC and GRC are trending the same items in different ways.

Ok..my hour of research is done now..hope this gets posted.
--------------------------
Scott,

I am going to bed. I just looked back to the maps on September 8th through 10th. I will have to analyze further. There is something there. I will open my mind to the possibility, but I just don't think it is related. And, we could be in around a 42 to 43 day cycle. But, not certain yet.

Gary

Gary,

I'm glad to see the NWS has fallen in line with your ideas for tomorrow's storm and issued the new warning. You were the lone wolf throughout much of the day, but not any more!

Are we going to have any more updates tonight?
So is it generally agreed that KC is going to get big snow tomorrow, or is there still a lot of variance among the various forecasts?

Gary, As someone who lived in Minnesota and Wisconsin, all I can say is.. PLEASE BE RIGHT!!!!!!!!! I miss the snow so much. You can keep the ice as I hate that. A foot of snow would make me so happy (Even though I would be off on my snowflake contest guess).. Keep the pups warm and say a prayer that we get the foot or more of snow!!!!!! Thanks for the great job.

Weatherteam,
I was wondering how much snow Kearney would be getting and how long do you think it will stay on the ground? I really hope that we get hit the hardest I just LOVE the snow. LOL.. I am sure some will disagree with me. I hope it is an awesome day and that everyone drives safe and stays safe. Just take your time on the roads everyone!!

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Gary:

Once again good luck to you today!! You have one crazy day in front of you-exciting as all get out but very hectic for sure!!! Early radar returns look good (I think!!!) Snow already spreading into Soutwest Kansas and rapidly advancing-looks like we have snow falling at about 5,000 feet but just not making it to the ground yet. It is so good to already see the snow spreading our way!!! Again great job-I think it is great you made a call yesterday afternoon-let the dice fly (just had to throw a little Latin quote in there!!!) Have a good one
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Bill,

Yes, I decided to throw the dice early yesterday. It looked right on until early this morning. If the upper low just lifts slightly further north then my forecast will verify. It is amazing though that there is still a chance of nothing.

Gary

**************
Gary,
I remember during your winter forecast, you predicted 26 inches for the year. What do you use for your numbers -- KCI, downtown, your studios? Will you be adjusting those numbers after tonight?
I'm looking forwarded to this storm. Our kids want snow and we thought we'd have to take them back to New England to see a real storm.
-------------------
Matt,

Hopefully you guys won't have to leave for New England to see a real snowstorm. It is crunch time and waiting is going to be tough for the next few hours.

We use KCI airport as the official site, but we will keep track of snowfall totals for the entir region through the season.

Gary