***************
Gary,
I am excited about the prospects for the storm developing on Thursday. Once again, these types of storms tend to generate there own "cold pool" of air. As soon as the storm moves away it warms up fast because of downsloping winds again! We do not have any chance at arctic air with all the lows that keep coming into the Gulf of Alaska. I am hoping something will change soon. KCI was in the 20s this morning! The new sensor makes a big difference.
-----------------------
Devin,

Yes, it will likely warm up dramatically after the storm passes by Thursday. Let's just hope we get this storm as it is drying out.

Gary

****************
Don't fall off the ladder, my husband did several years ago and broke three ribs, he was outside washing windows in Wichita.
I like this sunshine this morning even if it's nippy out, makes for nice day.
-------------------------
Ginger,

I will be careful.

Gary

*****************
Gary, regarding your winter forecast, you forecast 3-4 arctic outbreaks. Just wondering what your parameters are for defining an "arctic outbreak" in terms of how low the temp must go and what the duration of the low temps must be. As you know, sometimes arctic fronts "back door" KC and it gets pretty cold, but only for a day or so. Would that constitute an arctic outbreak if the temperature reached a certain low threshold?

Drat, missed the snow flakes last night! Hopefully we'll have some more on Wednesday...
---------------------
Patrick,

An Arctic outbreak would be a cold spell with Arctic origins that lasts for at least two days, and more like 5 days or longer. This would be my definition.

Gary

***************
Yup...storm is coming in as planned. I think we will see some snow. Let me look out even FURTHER and see if I spot anything for the 20th.
-----------------
Scott,

This storm for mid week will likely miss us. I will actually be somewhat surprised if it forms further west. We have a problem. I should post my mean 500 flow for the winter that I drew up. There appears to be a long term longwave trough east of us. So, this would explain yesterdays storm system and this next one forming and intensifying just east of us. I thought that when the flow amplified then we would be susceptable to some interesting storm systems and this is why we must be patient. But, these better not keep digging just east of us. We will know the real pattern within a few weeks.

Gary

****************
Gary,

Any updates on the storm? What are your thoughts as of now? I hope it snows.

Andy
---------------------
Andy,

Don't get excited at all. There is a better than 50% chance that we miss this storm, or at least the cold part of it. So, there is some hope, but I am concerned.

Gary

**************
I am very excited about the snow possibility. I picked November 16th for the snowflake contest as it is my nephew's birthday! Plus I love snow!
------------------
Kimberly,

Good luck!

Gary

*********************
Gary, I know I know don't get to excited but it is so hard not too. I am SO EXCITED!!I really hope we get some good snow. It is well deserved for us snow lovers. Please keep up updated! Thank you keep up the Awsome work.
----------------------------
Danie,

I will keep you updated. But, I fear this storm will form east of us.

Gary

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Snow? Did somebody say Snow? Too Late I'm already excited, of course, I guess when being homeschooled you hope for a good Ice or Snow Storm to knock out the power, So that I wouldn't have to do school!!:)

*************
Gary,

Any New news on that storm? It looked pretty good to me on the newest data. What say you/ I am crossing my fingers.

Andy
-------------------
Andy,

It is amazing, but it is so close. I just don't think it is going to happen. IT HAS TO DIG INTO EASTERN COLORADO, NOT EASTERN KANSAS. We are in trouble.

Gary

Gary

***************
This is the reason that I like to wait until at least it gets within 72 hours before I think about getting excited, it also looks like my worry about a dry spell I commented about is starting to grow:(
Hopefully it is a long pattern and this is the bad part of the pattern and if it changes in the next week, then the "bad part" will only be a small percentage of it.
Only time will tell
Nick in St. Joe!
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Nick,

It could be very close to Kansas City Wednesday. It could also be very frustrating.

Gary

*******************
Gary - Just perused the 18z GFS for what it is worth. Unfortunately, unless we receive precip on Tue-Wed or so, it looks to remain dry until possibly (and it is a long way out) the 26th. This would mean an extremely dry November. I hate to say it, but is the "dry" as the Aussies say, coming back with a vengeance? Can we have a pattern as bad as the last? PERHAPS...Let us hope not, BUT... I have concerns. Certainly, not an overly-wet pattern from all early appearances.

Dog
---------------------
Dog,

I don't disagree with you. If this continues we are in trouble.

Gary

*****************
I think I am still ok with the mid week storm..though I am thinking now it won't bring snow, it still could. It did elongate a bit. I am now worried about the 20th. I see a huge ridge building in the midwest. This is new to me. I makes my Nov 5th missed trough a bit more interesting. We may have slipped slightly into a more boring pattern. Could now be something like Nov 10 and 15, and Nov 25 and 30, skipping the 5th of Dec and then Dec 10th for the next storm. I am not giving up yet, but this is possible.

Keep an eye on the midwest ridge around the 20th..might be the ElNino effect that might screw things up a bit ongoing.
---------------------------
Scott,

It is not an "El Nino effect".

Gary

*************
Hey Gary,
I just wanted to say that I am very excited about your winter forecast. I sure hope we get more than what you are predicting. In Clinton, we have had a total of 12 inches in the last 2 years!!! Our biggest snow fall was 3.5 inches in the last 2 years. I really would like to have a "real" winter this season!!! That mid week storm is really close. It's something to watch.
Tell everyone I said hi!!!
,John
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John,

Wednesday's storm could be close to Clinton.

Gary

************
Gary,

What is your latest thinking on this next storm? I WANT SNOW

Andy
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Andy,

It still doesn't look good, but it may be close.

Gary

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Hello Mr. Lezak,

Hows the midweek storm looking?
If the precip were to change to snow when would it happen, Tuesday night or Wednesday?
---------------------------------
Ben,

If the storm develops fast enough it would be a rain changing to snow on Wednesday morning. But, right now the potential is very slim.

Gary

*********
Gary,

How is the storm looking today?

Andy
---------------
Andy,

It is a storm that will develop as it moves by reaching peak strength east of us. So, we will hope for something unusual to happen as it moves by and forms.

Gary

********************
Someone is cranky about the Weds. storm....hang in there Gary, it will snow again sometime. ;-)
----------------------
Scott,

This is a strange situation for Wednesday morning. And, I will be patient, like I try to explain to all of you.

Gary

*************
I see you predict 25" of snow. How much did you predict last year? Were you close? How late can you change your prediction. KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK!
------------------------
Jule,

Last year we forecasted 11 inches and 13 inches fell. This is a strange weather pattern this year and at this moment I see know sign of any winter weather, but it is still early. Winter doesn't even begin for 5 more weeks.

Gary