*************
Do you have any snow total predictions yet?!?
-------------
Danny,

Watch the newscasts tonight and then the blog later this evening. I want to look at one more model run.

Gary

**************
How much snow are you expecting for the most snow? It sounds like Appleton City will be in the heaviest I think. How much are you expecting for right now for Appleton City?
-------------
Daniel,

The trend is for the storm to go further north. But, you should get some significant precipitation over the next 36 hours. The drought may be OVER.

Gary

************
NOWCasting... love the term, Gary. Seems to fit well, too. Git'r trademarked! Now if only the blog entries were posted a little quicker, too!

This storm has gotta be driving you crazy... south one run, north the next time. Well, at least it's exciting!

Look forward to your updates, Gary! Thanks! -mt
--------------------
MT,

I don't like giving the competition too much information.

Gary

************
Gary,

Do you find it difficult to adjust forecast based on all the various media in which you are hired to use?

Fo instance, your radio and TV forecasts are different from each other and both are very different from your blog entries.

I would think it would be difficult -- you do it well!
----------------
Hamons,

If you watch me regularly you will notice the difference between us and others. I will always explain what I think will happen. Now, with this said, last night was too early and too difficult to make a call on the upper level lows track. As soon as I am convinced of something I go for it, I may still be wrong though. If it changes and I change my oppinion then I will let you know.
And I try to be consistant on each media outlet, but you are right it is still difficult.

****************
Good morning Gary,
It is getting a bit more exciting! I was excited just to feel cold air this morning and not a tropical feel of the past few days. Are we looking better than we were 24 hours ago if we are snow lovers? Is this event playing into the big cycling of weather we have read about for many weeks. Is more of this heaed our way, I hope!
Thanks for your expertise and sharing your knowledge with us.
Keith
---------------
Keith,

Let's hope this trend continues.

Gary

*******************
Yes! 8-12" in Olathe? Sweet! How about 256" Like Mt Baker had like 1990?
-------------------
Andrew,

Let's start with 1 to 2 inches. Don't think 256" Wow!

Gary

*******************
Gary
The last ETA model (if you want to believe it)paints quite the picture with snowfall amounts as much as 10 inches as far north as Harrisonville!! I cant imagine that this would actually happen. Im sure that model is overdoing it. I just wanted your take on that?? thanks

Adam Penney
---------------------
No Adam,

The models may be underdoing it.

Gary

**************
Hello Gary,
Do you see the ice being a big problem, say like are last big ice storms?
Thanks
Anne
------------------------
Anne,

Not a huge ice storm, but it could be somewhat tricky later on.

Gary

****************
Now Gary, after yesterdays punch in the stomach I am not going to get excited about todays models yet, but, if things continue to trend the way they are looking it is going to get nasty. I am off from work until next Monday so I say bring it on. I just hope the system strengthens and brings in the colder air aloft fast so we can shut off the ice machine and turn on the snow machine. Thanks for keeping us informed and I look forward to frequent updates on here throughout the day.

Mike P
----------------
Mike,

I have never been punched in the stomach, but I know it had to feel bad yesterday. But, we weren't knocked out and it is time to have some fun.

Gary

*********
Gary, will DeKalb,Mo be getting any snow? It was iceing this morning, nothing on the streets.
------------
Michael,

You are really on the edge of this storm on Thursday. But, today you could have some ice building up towards the end of the day.

Gary

Gary,
I was just wondering if you know what the morning drive is going to look like. I drive to Warrensburg in the morning and leave there to come home around 2. I was just wondering if I should leave early, late, or somewhere in between. Thank you so much for keeping us up to date. Have fun forcasting today, we all know you love this weather.
Thanks
Shannon

As long as we don't get a major ice storm with power outages, I will be happy. I HATE power outages.

What about Marshall? Will we get any of the white stuff?

Gary....let the fun begin. I don't care how it comes, as long as something is falling from the sky.

Hi Gary!

Just wanted to say in advance how much we appreciate your forecast updates. I'm sure you realize we're heading into that time of year again when everyone starts in on how "wrong" you are about some forcasts. Don't let them get to you. There are many more of us who appreciate your hard work than those who feel the need to criticize. Thank you and your team for your constant updates and honesty. I'll be watching for the beginnings of that ice storm so I can make sure my family is home tonight safe and sound. In the end that's what truely matters.

Janine

WOW! This is going to get very interesting the next 24-36 hours. Adams email re: Harrisonville 10in and you say that the models are underdoing that number is really exciting. I will be waiting to see what you finially think will develop.

Gary,

It's getting exciting. Radar shows snow moving into Wichita and the precip is backbuilding like you said it might the other day.

I can't believe my Snowflake Contest prediction was for 10:18 am today. If only the system could have picked up a little more steam.

Trey

The information you provide is incredible Gary, thank you very much!! Just looked at the radar echoes...the area of precipitation to our south seems to be growing and changing direction from head NE to heading directly N. I'm worried the ice event could be slightly more significant, but at the same time excited we could get nailed with snow.

Keep up the great work.

"The models may be underdoing it."

!!

What are you seeing Gary? I see a patch of heavy snow forming up in Kansas that appears to be pointed our way. You've got me curious to see if that patch socks us in good.

Gary, watching the radar the last 30 minutes, would suggest possibly quite a bit of ice at least south of the river to come. Is the front backing up a bit, or is this part of the next wave coming in from the SW?
GaryB.

Gary..thanks for the info yesterday. I can verify this matches with Oct 16-17. I verify the same based on the SMCv.2. That being the case...the upcoming two weeks should be very active.

That being said, and seeing this trend, I know we will catch the comma. The only suprise was how this storm slowed down a bit...but I am sure we are going to get it. Yesterday prior to the bunk GFS, the SREF nailed the snow. I am still buying into that. It is pegging us with quite a bit of snow even on today's run for Thurs. I expect quite a bit. The SREF max snowfall is off the chart. WHOOHOOO

A winter milestone if you will, I had to salt the back deck, since it is elevated it has become worse than this morning!
Do you think that St. Joe will get into any heavier rain later or do you think it will be just a thick drizzle all day? (I've noticed the thicker echos migrating back toward the north)
Nick(enjoying the first real winter event)in St. Joe!

Gary, what is needed in order to increase the accuracy of these numerical models? A greater density of weather balloon launch sites, more frequent releases, better algorithms, faster computers capable of crunching more data more quickly, other factors? Acknowledging that forecasts have improved over time, it's still crazy how one model suite will indicate one thing, and the next run 12 hours later indicates something different even 24 hours or less before the actual event! Winter storms adversely impact many people over a wide area, so the government should do whatever it takes to provide forecasters the data needed for increased forecast accuracy ahead of these critical events.

With that said, I'm hoping the northward trend in the model solutions continues...go snow!!

Hello Mr. lezak, what do you thnk of the precip to our south seems like fairly strong showers maybe t-storm. Will that form as Ice or snow?
How do the snow chances look for leavenworth?

Gary, you had mentioned the possiblity of the warm zone moving back north a bit which would give my area (Chillicothe MO) some good rain before it turned to ice and/or snow. Is that still a possibility or do you think my area will not receive as much rain now? By the way, really enjoy your forecasting techniques and the way you throw out all the potential variables.
John

Gary,

I was wondering where the heaviest snow can be expected with this storm?
Thanks

Gary,
I live in the Piper,Ks area and I was wondering what we could expect out our way? I don't mind the snow, but am worried about the ice. I was watching another channel earlier today with some co workers and their station was saying that nothing was really going to happen and not to worry, but what do you think? I trust you and your staff. You guys are on the ball.
Megan

Gary:

Do you think the dry slot will get us? THat tends to always be a problem with these storms that the models hardly catch. I cannot count how many timnes I have seen forecasts for a bunch of snow for it only to be cut off by the dry slot, and nobody took that into account. I know you will because you get all the details!

GARY,

What is the update on the SNOW. I like what i am seeing, and you say the models may be UNDERdoing the precip. that wouls mean alot of SNOW. What are you thinking at this point?

Andy

Gary,
Any chance of Oak Grove getting any snow out of this storm?

******************
Ok Gary, finally we have seen some rain here in Kingsville. Half inch is better than none. Now I would like a couple inches of snow so my son can use his new sled he received for Christmas last year!!

................

Your wish should come true on Thursday.

Jeremy Nelson

*****************
Gary,
Did I read correctly that 10 inches on a model for snow may be UNDERdoing the amounts??? How is it looking this afternoon? Any new updates or do we wait for the 5pm news?

......................

Updates on the storm will be available during the newscasts and also cut-ins. Gary will keep everyone informed on the latest storm info.

Jeremy Nelson

*************
Well Intellicast radar paints snow over Olathe right now at 12:16. Weather.com says it is snowing for zip code 66061. My wife says it is doing nothing in downtown Olathe.

Why is this?
.......................

Leonard,

Please use LIVE ESP on the kshb.com website for your radar purposes. The radar you are referring to is based on surface temps to paint the colors white, blue, etc. on the radar to represent rain, snow, and mix. Good rule of thumb...use the kshb.com website.

Jeremy Nelson

***************
Good afternoon, I would prefer snow over ice anytime. How does the data look this afternoon? I noticed that two other KC stations and a Wichita Station has just put the possibility of snow in the forecast just over the past two hours. Our Topeka stations are mute on the snow for tomorrow so far. Thanks for you accuracy, Michael/Topeka

..................

Snow is a VERY good bet tomorrow. But the totals will be less for Topeka, compared to KC and areas SE.

Jeremy Nelson

****************
Gary, just an update from Ottawa for you. As of 12:15 it is freezing rain mixed with some sleet. Looking at radar another batch of precip is about to hit us here. Hopefully it is more sleet than freezing rain.

..................

Mike,

At least there has been a good mix of sleet with the frz. rain. Sleet won't knock down trees and powerlines like the frz. rain will do.

Jeremy Nelson

***************
Gary,
I work in western shawnee ks along K7 and Johnson Drive and it starting to rain and it is freezing. It started about 5 minutes ago which would put it at 12:25pm. When it hits the ground it looks like little glass beads and it is making a ping sound when it hits the glass windows and the ground. I think the storm is here!
Just though you might like to know.
Megan
...................

Megan,

Thanks for the report. Please keep them coming in the days ahead!

Jeremy Nelson

**************
Report from my cousin in Emporia....heavy freezing rain mixed with sleet now falling..

...................

Bob,

Keep the reports coming!

Jeremy Nelson

***************
Gary,
This is a classic snow situation for the viewing area. The heavier snow potential will be south of I-70 and the lighter snow potential will be north of the interstate. This has happened many times before with the type of track that I am seeing from the models. Slight shifts in the track are always significant with most storms.
Devin

..................

Devin,

The storm is turning more north. Good if you like snow!

Jeremy Nelson

****************
hey Gary, i have to be somewhere this evening. When do you think the side streets will ice over?

...................

Everything will be icy this evening and overnight. Safe travels.

Jeremy Nelson

****************
12:55 update - in Olateh it is freezing rain. Freezing to cars, trees and decks but not a whole lot to the roads just yet.

Leonard

.....................

Leonard,

Thanks for checking in. Please stop back with a report on the ice/snow on Thursday.

Jeremy Nelson

**************
Hey gary i was wondering when you were going to update on the situation in your blog my husband is in sedalia right now and won't head back to lees summit till 4:00
Thanks and good luck

.................

Gary will likely update the blog twice a day during this storm. Drive safe!

Jeremy Nelson

*************
Woohoo, it's sleeting in Lenexa!

................

Don't get too excited...because there is much more exciting weather in the forecast for Thursday!

Jeremy Nelson

****************
I'm really hoping the snow tomorrow takes just a little more northward/westward track and settles in over Lawrence. I'd love a huge snow storm and I don't want to drive 60 miles to see one. I know not everyone wants/loves snow so I'm going to apologize for rooting for it.

...................

Shawn,

Your wish may be granted on Thursday/Thurs. Night!

Jeremy Nelson

******************
Let's get an update!!!!!! I am sure things have changed since you logged on at 7 AM.
The other channels are completely different in their forecast! One is hysterical and the other saying not much. WE NEED YOU TO UPDATE US!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Debbie

...................

Debbie,

We'll do our best to keep everyone updated over the next 2 days.

Jeremy Nelson

**************
Just read the NWS warning on the ice saying an inch of ice or more!!!!!!! What do you say???

..................

Debbie,

I thought that was a bit overdone too. Maybe 1/4-1/2", but to get 1" of ice you need at least an inch of rain and ALL of that to be freezing rain. The NWS did revise this as of 4pm.

Jeremy Nelson

*********
Sleet started falling just before 1:15 here at 104th and Holmes Rd.

............

David,

Thanks for the report. Make sure to check back in.

Jeremy Nelson

**************
Sleet pouring down in Bonner Springs at 1:14 pm. It is coming down good.

...............

Keri,

Thanks for the report! Please keep them coming in the days ahead!

Jeremy Nelson

************
Gary..I am looking at the differences between the GFS and the Eta and they look to be quite different....the GFS is still preferring a more northern track and the Eta is the more southern, which appears to be what you and the NWS are going with...is it because the GFS has been so wishy washy lately, or is there the outside chance that we could get some good snow here in northern MO east of St. Joseph?

...............

Corey,

Check out the 18Z models. NAM is a bit farther north...good if you like snow. 00Z numbers will be out by 8:30-9:30pm!

Jeremy Nelson

**************
Gary,
I have heard the term "major" and "significant" thrown around for snowstorms around here. When you use those terms, what is the usual range of snowfall for each of them? thanks!

.................

Matt,

I can't speak for Gary...but I mention sig. or major when 6"+ of snow is forecast or at least 1/4" of ice. I'm sure Gary would be around that criteria too.

Jeremy Nelson

*************
Hi Gary. How much snow and ice are you thinking? I really want school to be out. Do you think theres a chance? Roberto

.............

Roberto,

You should like me(when I was in school)! Some schools may be delayed or closed around the area over the next 2 days due to mixed precip. and snow! Hope your wishes come true!

Jeremy Nelson

***********
HI Gary!! i hope we have snow more than anything i can think of. im Robertos best friend. i can't wait until we get some ice maybe no school for Corinth or the rest of the shawnne mission schhol district! well we can always hope. im at school right now so id better go! pray for snow!!

..................

Callie,

Your wishes may come true! Not only icy today...but snow is on the way for Thursday/Thurs. Night. It could be a storm to remember!

Jeremy Nelson

*************
Weather Team,
Love the weather, your forecasts, the blog and trying to figure out this crazy pattern...HOWEVER...I am meteorologically challenged. Looking at all these different maps and models, I see state outlines, wiggly lines and pretty colors. I'm helpless!

Thats why I rely on you guys, the best weather team in town! Gary, when you say this storm may form "too far south" or we may be on the northern egde, what areas are you speaking of? The metro in general? I'm kinda out in right field 50 miles NE of KCMO.

Thanks and continue the superb forcasting!

..................

Jody,

Thanks for the email. You will see a mix of everything tonight. Then some snow is on the way for Thursday. Get ready for a nasty 2 days! We are glad you enjoy our hard work and dedication towards the weather!

Jeremy Nelson

***************
Gary,
You gotta help me shove this thing a little further north. It would make my day for a snow storm before December. The ice though we can do without.
.................

Justin,

Your wish may be realized Thursday. Some snow is on the way!

Jeremy Nelson

******************
OH why can't it just stay springtime all year long :)

.....................

Lyn,

I agree...at least at the moment! Severe storms seem to affect a smaller part of the population and are more isolated.

Jeremy Nelson

*****************
Gary, So am sitting here at work wondering the best time to leave.I saw 27 at 5PM so getting home before sunset is best?
Love the passion you show for your work. I never miss your forecast
....................

Tom,

Thanks for checking in. Hopefully you already left work:) Tomorrow will be a headache again...so be ready!

Jeremy Nelson

**************
Gary,

I see the NWS has issued a Heavy Snow Warning for Harrisonville/Raymore/Peculiar/Pleasant Hill area. What is the outlook for Greenwood MO (which sits about 15 miles north of H-ville)?

..............

James,

Heavy snow is likely on Thursday/Thurs. Night. The NWS may move the warning farther north...if the storms tracks a bit more that way. Regardless, you will still see snow. Gary will let you know how much during his shows. Thanks for checking in.

Jeremy Nelson

***************
Hello Mr. Lezak,
Here in leavenworth we are experiencing very heavy sleet.
The roads are becoming very slick!

...............

Ben,

Thanks for the report. Expect the roads to be in bad shape for the next 2 days.

Jeremy Nelson

******************
Gary,

2pm in Baldwin City and the roads are glazed over with ice. It will be interesting to see where the low tracks.

Ryan
.....................

Ryan,

It looks VERY interesting for Thursday...maybe a significant snow event!

Jeremy Nelson

****************
It's just after 2pm in Shawnee and SM Pkwy is starting to look like an ice rink. Trucks are to and fro and it's really looking nasty out there. SO FYI, the roads are now totally a mess!

..................

Ryan,

Thanks for the report. Drive safe today and Thursday!

Jeremy Nelson

*****************
Gary,

Sleeting hard right now here in Roeland Park. (51st and Roe Blvd.) 2:15pm

....................

Derek,

Thanks for the report. Make sure to watch Gary tonight for an update on the snow on the way for Thursday.

Jeremy Nelson

****************
2:22 in Olathe it is all snow coming down now. Not accumulating on the roads yet but it is on my deck and cars.

...................

Leonard,

Thanks for the report. Keep them coming the next 36 hours!

Jeremy Nelson

****************

Gary...for the foreseeable future, those of who live in KC, will always wonder if ice storm means, "LIKE THE BIG ICE STORM of a few years ago." It would be great to know more about how much ice you expect will accumulate. Driving slowly and carefully is one thing. Dodging falling branches and downed power line is another!

..............

It's a mess outside! The good thing is some sleet is mixing in. Good because this won't stick to power lines and trees very well. While the rain, sleet, etc. will continue tonight...hopefully we will avoid power outages.

Jeremy Nelson

**********
Gary,
The 1800 NAM has us set up for the storm of the century.....can we dare dream????

................

Jimmy,

The NAM looks good if you like snow. Good thing the century is only 6 years old:)

Jeremy Nelson

***********
It's snowing here at 67th and Antioch, where I work...or that sure looks like snow out my window....

............

Rob,

Thanks for the report. There's been a little bit of everything in your area today. Have a safe commute.

Jeremy Nelson

*************
We are experienceing some heavy rain right now in Clinton. I see that we could be seeing some freezing rain and sleet tonight. How much "ice" do you think we could be talking about. I have heard about 1/4-1/2 of an inch. It also looks like we are in for a possible snow storm tomorrow night. They are saying that south of Warrensburg we could get anywhere from 5-8 inches and possibly higher local amounts. What is your opinion of this situation. I truley is becomeing exciting!!!
John Moon III :)
................

John,

The temps in Clinton have been much milder compared to K.C. today. The colder air is progressing slowly SE. You will likely see a mix tonight...but the bigger concern for you is the significant snow that may fall on Thursday. Gary will pass along his snow forecast during all the shows today.

Jeremy Nelson

***********
Weather Team--I have 3 kids at 3 separate schools who do more than one sport/activity. I need to know the weather situation ASAP! Do I let them ride the bus? Do I pick them up early? Are the roads hazardous for teenagers to drive on? Is ice accumulating on power lines?

I realize people complain about the tornado/severe t-storm interruptions on various stations, but I bet more people die in winter weather-related accidents than being hit by tornadoes, lightning, etc. Maybe I'm wrong. Regardless, please interrupt the programs-in-progress so I have an informed decision to make.

A concerned parent

..............

Thanks for the email. Road conditions continue to worsen across the area and extra caution is urged! Gary has been doing cut-ins once or twice an hour since 3pm. For a complete update on the situation and the potential for significant snow on Thursday please watch Gary's forecast tonight.

I hope everyone arrives at their destination safely!

Jeremy Nelson

*************

GARY,

What is the UPDATE on the SNOW forecast? I looked at the Maxsnow for 3 hours on the SPC site and it looks AMAZING! What do you think?

Andy
...............

Andy,

The NAM continues to push the storm a bit more to the north...while the GFS at 18Z was very close to the 12Z run. Snow is likely on Thursday and could be significant. Watch Gary for the latest snow forecast. Thanks for checking in.

Jeremy Nelson

**************

Platte City---
Heavy Freezing rain possably 1/4 in in most locations
What about the snow chances here

..............

The storm continues! Thanks for checking in. Expect some snow in Platte City on Thursday. Watch Gary for the expected snow amounts.

Jeremy Nelson

***********
Gary,
What can we expect for Overland Park tonight into tomorrow.
Thanks.

................

Expect more of the same. The Ice Storm Warning continues into Thursday morning. Mixed precip. tonight and then snow by Thursday afternoon.

Jeremy Nelson

***************

In Lee's Summit at 4:11 pm, we have thunder, sleet and some ice. Love it!! Except I have to work tomorrow--
GaryB

.............

Thanks for the report. This is the same storm that began on Monday! A 5 part storm! Good luck with work tomorrow.

Jeremy Nelson

*************

4:15 in Kingsville, and ALOT of thunder and lightning with rain and a little snow or sleet mixed in. Hope it changes over to snow!!

..............

Kimberley,

Isn't this exciting! Don't expect a fast change-over. The precip. will turn to all snow on Thursday...with accumulation expected. Make sure to watch Gary tonight. Thanks for checking in!

Jeremy Nelson

*****************

Here in Greenwood we are getting thunder, lightening and the freezing rain.

............

Ann,

Thanks for the report. The weather may only get worse over the next 24-30 hours!

Jeremy Nelson

***************
It's 4:33 p.m. and in west Independence the trees already have a coating of ice on the branches. I really hope this isn't a repeat of 2002.

..................

Teresa,

No one wants to see a repeat of that ice storm. The freezing rain and sleet will continue tonight...hopefully we see more sleet than freezing rain. This would lessen the chance of power outages and trees being downed.

Make sure to watch Gary for a complete update on this 5 PART STORM!

Jeremy Nelson

****************
We have been getting NAILED at times with heavy sleet and freezing rain, with HOWLING winds!
Nick(Icing over) in St. Joe!!!!!!!!!!!!!

....................

Nick,

It looks like you will continue to see some sleet and a mix...but the radar returns are a bit weaker and more scattered in your area. Gary will have a complete update coming up on TV soon!

Jeremy Nelson

******************
Platte City---
Heavy Sleet
Sleet covering the ground to about 3/4-1 in

Does anyone see that the area of sleet and snow is deminishing is this just a short term thing or maybee a long lerm thing to where the storm is letting up Hopefully we will see some significant snow in KC
........................

Charles,

The mixed precip. will likely let up some tonight and into tomorrow morning. Then part 5 of the storm arrives with accumulating snow. Gary will tell you how much during the news and his cut-ins.

Jeremy Nelson

***************
Does this still mean possibility of a snow day tomorrow here in Platte City

..................

Charles,

The heavy snow will likely not arrive until the afternoon on Thursday. So a snow day? Maybe you'll have to hope for Friday if the storm slows down. Wait and see.

Jeremy Nelson

***************
OK how about an Ice day

...............

Charles,

The precip. will continue tonight...a little more scattered though. Snow/ice days are always fun though(if you don't have to travel)!

Jeremy

*************
NWS now forcasting 3.2 in of snow for tommarrow

...............

Maybe well north of Kansas City...but heavier in K.C. Any shift in the track and then the snow totals will change a bit. Gary will update this again today and also all day Thursday!

Jeremy Nelson

**************
Good afternoon weather team- We are supposed to have our Annual Christmas Bazaar tomorrow night (4-8pm) in Paradise MO - north of Smithville. We are wondering if we should call it off- Smithville choir is to sing-- think they will cancel school for Smithville district?
Thank you all for keeping us informed-
tooti
...................

Tooti,

If you can wait until tomorrow morning it may be advised. Right now it looks like snow by Thursday afternoon and evening. Snow totals will be greatest SE of KC, and less north and NE. I would watch Brett Anthony tomorrow morning and then you will have a VERY good idea of what is going to happen. That will give the weather team 2 more model runs to look at. We'll hope for the best for your group.

Jeremy Nelson

************
Does that mean that we should get more then 3 in in Platte City

.................

As of now yes! Make sure to watch Gary for updates.

Jeremy Nelson

**************
I hope so and when do the new m0del runs come out

Heavy sleet/mostly snow here in Platte City

...................

New information comes out between 8:30-10pm. Gary will have the latest snowfall forecast at 10pm tonight.

Jeremy Nelson