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Hello Mr. Lezak,
Hoping for some snow.
When will the models update?
Before the 10pm newscast?
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Ben,

The new data comes out before 10 PM. So, we will see what the trend is. I don't like it right now. The hope for snow is very, very slim with just not enough cold air. But, this can change.

Gary

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Hi - One of my hobbies is drawing Wx maps from the SPC's Forecast Tools Map, and I have set a threshold of .25 inches as a significant storm to draw. However, given the trend towards an another abysmal pattern, I am lowering this to .10 - a truly southern California "significant storm" threshold. Can't beat em, join em.

.10 from the last - nice upper air display with cut-off over the east coast, where I think all the action will occur again this season.

Dog
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Dog,

It certainly seems that way!

Gary

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Gary,

Is it all all possible that the dtorm could somehow do something wierd and we could see some snow? Isnt it possible for more cold air to come into the storm?

Andy
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Andy,

It is always possible, but the trend now is to have the storm go to far south.

Gary

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Gary,

I just wanted to know what would have to happen in order for us to get a more sigificant snow from this storm?

Andy
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Andy,

We would need this storm to draw in some colder air from the north, but there just isn't enough cold air available right now.

Gary

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Gary what is your prediction for the first snow?
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Ann,

I have decided on December 10th at 4:35 PM.

Gary

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Hello Gary,

Just thought I would share my daughter's comment to the New data. When I told her you had taken the chance of snow out of the forcast, she said to tell you to "Put it back!!! Put it back!!!!" She and her sister both would love to see some BIG snow storms this year.

Thanks for giving us the truth even when it hurts.

Susan
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Susan,

Tell the kids to just be patient. It will snow before Christmas!

Gary

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Gary,

It looks to me that the new NAM models wants to bring in a little more cold air to the storm. Could this be a trend? Do you see this also? I really want it to SNOW.

Andy
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Andy,

No! Not from this storm. It is time for you to move on.

Gary

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Gary,
I do not like what I am seeing on the GFS. There is hardly any ridging in the Pacific after this storm goes by. It does not even forecast one ridge to allow some decent cold air to move south. This pattern already looks bad. Something had better change soon.
Devin
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Devin,

Be patient. I know it is hard right now, but my theory hasn't ever failed me. And, there is always this "panic period" where it looks completely different than what we thought. This is all part of the long cycle. I still have concerns as well, but the latest trends in the GFS are very good.

Gary

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Gary,

It's like you said, it is not what the models say, it's what really happens. So it could change and give us some snow.

Andy
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Andy,

Yes, something always does change. But, as Jeff explained in the last entry it is too warm for this storm.

Gary

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Hello Mr. Lezak,
There seems to be a disturbance moving by tonight. Any chance of some light rain?

Is there even a slim possibility that the storm could some how fool all of us an dump some snow?
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Ben,

You should know me by now. If there was any chance I would tell you there was a chance. I don't hold anything back. So, no, there is no chance from this storm.

Gary

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Gary, nice job picking the 10th of December. You must be working off the SMCv.2 That is when the next signficant chance for snow would be. It seems to be cycling from 10 and 15th for this part of the cycle. Basically..it would be storm before this again in a month. [from the 10th of Nov..the first flakes of the season]. May see snow then again on Dec.15th. But..the one you picked, would be of the Canadian variety, not the Pacific..so we shall see.
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Scott,

I have an idea of what the cycle may be. And, the pattern may have begun around the first of October. It is very complex. So, let's see what happens as we go through this month. If I am correct then this extremely warm pattern will be with us during the next 10 to 12 days, then suddenly a change.

Gary

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What does the rest of the weather team pick as the date of the first 1" of snow at KSHB?

Gary does your weather pattern work for other parts of the country as well? In other words is there a pattern that would be setting up on the east coast as well? WOuld you happen to know what that would be? I may be moving to Deleware soon for my job and would like ot know if they are setting up for a wet cold winter or not.

thanks
Leonard
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Leonard,

My theory works for the entire northern hemishphere.

Gary

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Gary,

Something has to give here we haven't had a good winter in like forever. In fact I was born in 1980 and I don't ever remember a white Christmas. This weather pattern is boring for us. We need some fun in the pattern.
Good Job I love watching your forecast every night.
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Jon,

This pattern may be the most exciting in years. I know it doesn't seem that way yet, but there is something interesting going on. We aren't doomed yet.

And, since 1980 there have been a few very good years. 1987-88, 1992-93 were both extremely exciting winters. We had over 30 inches of snow in 1992-93.

Gary

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Hey Gary,

Nice job on the forecast. I remember several years ago we had a really nice snowfall the day before Thanksgiving (2004?). It wasn't in the forecast at all and we were all taken by surprise! Maybe a slight chance of this occurring again tomorrow??? Maybe?
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Christi,

Two things....1) there is NO chance from this storm and I have been trying to make this clear. and 2) That November 24th storm two years ago was predicted by us, it really was (I don't want to get too cocky here). We went 4-6 inches. The NWS and other forecasts in town went for no accumulation that day. It was one of our big forecasting "victories". I remember it well. But that was two years ago.

So, just look ahead this year as we don't have any chance of snow for a while.

Gary

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Ok, "uncle". Thanks for setting me straight. You guys are always on the money with your forecasts, so I'll trust you on this one! :) Thanks Gary!!!!!
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Christi,

Now I feel guilty. It is amazing. Sometimes when we aren't going for snow I actually hope I am wrong. Unfortunately in this situation the storm is tracking too far south. It is amazing how it trended from to far east a few days ago to looking good, then too far south. Oh well.

Gary