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No 70 degrees today?
Good afternoon everyone,
We blew it! Last week we had 66 and 67 degrees for today and Thanksgiving. I wish we would have stuck with it. The National Weather Service at that time had 50s. I just over analyzed the data and I should never have gone into the 70s. There is still a small chance of it getting to near 70 degrees on Thanksgiving Day.
So, I admit it. And, we will do better on the next situation! It is warm enough for it to be 70 degrees about 4 to 5,000 feet up but we just didn't mix enough of that air to the surface. One of our bloggers hit this point well yesterday.
It is still a great day, and Thanksgiving will also be fantastic.
Have a safe holiday weekend. The weather pattern is becoming more energetic and wild in the next two weeks. Hopefully something exciting will happen soon.
Gary
Posted by at November 22, 2006 4:49 PM
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Well at least you admitted it and corrected the mistake. The other stations were predicting 60s until yesterday and now they are all predicting 70 or greater!
I see you have a high of 39 for next Wednesday. This time of year I always take you temp you predict and add 5 degrees if you are predicting really cold weather. This works if you are a week out like now. So you are predicting 39 so I am thinking 44. We'll see as it gets closer.
Leonard
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Leonard,
I would love to challenge you on this each time. The high temperature next Wednesday could be 34 or 49. It is a week out so your philosphy that far out is likely not that far off. So many things change in 7 days.
Gary
Posted by: Leonard at November 22, 2006 9:35 PM
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Gary,
You know your the best. Hey I went 72 in Joplin and we hit 73, I remember talking to you about this yesterday. Going 74 for Thanksgiving, hopefully we hit it. I am a little worried due to a few clouds. Our vortex is there for next week, the pattern is the exact same, just shifted a hair due to ridge and jetstream strenght. Thought I would type in, have a great turkey day
Doug Heady
koamtv
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Doug,
Thanks! I have gotten a few emails and sometimes they get to me when we don't hit a key temperature like 70 degrees.
Thanksgiving Day may do it!
Gary
Posted by: Doug Heady at November 22, 2006 10:24 PM
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Gary- You said the front that will be blowing through next week is going to be a dramatic one. Does that mean we could get some severe weather to go along with the temperature change?
Ilana
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Llana,
I don't see severe weather right now, but we have to watch this closely. I do know it will be fun to watch as it gets closer.
Gary
Posted by: Ilana at November 22, 2006 10:32 PM
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Gary,
What would need to happen for us to get some snow form the next system? Is there any chance at all for us to see SNOW?
Andy
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Andy,
Nothing really showing up yet!
Gary
Posted by: Andy at November 23, 2006 12:16 AM
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HAPPY THANKSGIVING!!!!!
Thanks for being directly honest about the temps, I know that can be tricky, this is one of the many things that put you above other meteorologists.
Finally at the very least it looks like the monotony of this part of the weather pattern might come to an end, even if this next storm misses us precip wise it will be somewhat nice to get a strong wind and a temperature shift(although if we don't get precip the wind will dry us out more).
Thanks for your time.
Nick(ready for turky and exciting weather) in St. Joe!
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Nick,
Happy Thanksgiving to you as well. It will be exciting to track this cold front. But, a little bit of rain and snow would be nice too.
Gary
Posted by: Nick Rau at November 23, 2006 12:38 AM
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To the recent blogger...it looks like 9 is going 68, Fox4 is going 71, and KCTV5 is going 66...so I think saying everyone is going in the 70s is inaccurate. Regardless, today will be a nice day. I just don't see us getting much past 65 with the shallow mixing and 850s not quite as warm. But another day of WAA and starting out a few degrees warmer could make a difference. Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!
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Lance,
We went 67 for today, although Brett did drop it to 66 this morning. So, we'll see. The bottom line though is it is a great day. If we had a southwest or more westerly wind it would have gotten up to those higher forecast numbers. A south to southeast breeze just won't do it.
Gary
Posted by: Lance at November 23, 2006 2:26 AM
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