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Gary it sounds like the weather pattern isn't going to go the way of us snow lovers huh? Of course the other meteorologists are saying how this week is a direct influence of El Nino, (I actually heard that one this morning). Golly, Gary as I have kept records over the past 40 years of the winter events in Kansas, the last 12-13 years have been downers as far as a lot of snow and even ice except for a few storms. I look forward to you winter forecast. I just hope that it can be a little more snowy this year. Thanks, Michael/Topeka
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Michael,

Don't panic yet!

Gary

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Gary, you did a great job with the weekend forecast. We were at the Nebraska/Missouri game on Saturday. Last week you said we would need sunglasses - you were right on target with that. I know you are putting together your winter forecast. However, Nebraska Dad wanted to share one of his station's forecasts for this winter. Here is the link - http://www.ketv.com/video/10233061/index.html -
He can't wait to hear yours later this week. Thanks again for being accurate this past weekend!
Mark
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Mark,

I have to 100% disagree with that winter forecast. There is no insight whatsoever from that meteorologist. He just based it on all of those ocean temperature anomalies. And, heavily waited in El Nino just like every other one I have seen thus far.

Anyway, thanks for sharing it with us. We are still working on our Thursday night unveiling of the winter forecast.

Gary

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There have been times during the past several weeks that I've been hopeful for a stormier weather pattern for the next year, and then times (like right now) that I'm fearful that nothing has really changed. Once again, we are in a warm dry spell and we know these all too well. Last year, as with this year, we had some decent storms in October and then in November it's like someone flipped a switch and we didn't see good storms for the entire winter and spring!

I suppose I need to wait until your winter forecast but please tell me last year's pattern isn't starting over again!!!
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Doug,

It is VERY different from last year. It is not even close at all. So, don't panic. We are still figuring this out. Right now, the flow is not blocked up at all so I think we are still O.K., maybe even better than just O.K.
Gary

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Its now time to unveil my method of determining weather events. Just ahead of the Winter Forecast! Let me introduce Wishcasting! Yes, it is the new trend that I am very guilty of. Like most of the other model junkies and novices, we employ Wishcasting. Its the new trend! Here is how it works...you see a model and wish it to be! Very simple. Most meteorologists fight it, but are guilty - like myself! Gary, great job not falling for the bait!

That being said, I am still trying to get a grip on NOWCasting. Nowcasting kinda seems like looking out the window and reporting on what is happening..but that is for another blog entry.

Long story short, I still have alot to learn..but find that the models have left me out in the cold. I just wish KC could get some of that cold to validate my snow predictions!
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Scott,

I love wishcasting, but I can only do it at home. I can't do it on the air. Earlier in my career I did wishcast on the air a few times. It doesn't work. And, Nowcasting isn't just looking out the window. It involves forecasting for the next few hours.

I know you have already messed up on your first two "wishcasts" and gone for snow. So, you are 0 for 2. That's O.K. I know you will do better.

I REALLY LIKE WHAT I AM SEEING ON THE LATEST TRENDS OF THE MODELS!

Gary

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Gary,

I was just looking at sum of the newest data, and the GFS has the weather pretty active around day 8. any news thoughts on the pattern, i really hope we have an exciting pattern this year.

thanks
Andy
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Andy,

I have some new thoughts every day, but they are converging on what I believe will happen this winter. Like I said, don't panic!

Gary

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Ok for probalby the 1000th time! Any snow showing up? Can't wait for Winter Forecast.
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Andrew,

NO!

Gary

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Gary,

things jus seem to be changing everyday. is there any chance of snow with this wierd and interesting storm?
thanks
Andy

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Andy,

The end of the week storm doesn't seem to have enough cold air with it.

Gary

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Gary,

I was looking at some more data, and this storm is looking pretty impressive. However i dont know if there will be any snow. Do you have any new thought. Oh i almost forgot to tell you what a good job Jeremy is doing.
Thanks
Andy
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Andy,

Thanks,

Jeremy will be blogging soon.

Gary

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Talk about a 180! From depressing to exitement in 0 to 60 seconds:),but we are missing the first rain chance for the week and I don't trust the models on the second one yet, one minute it's a beautiful storm, then it's not then it is, ect. I'll really get exited when its occuring and precipitating. (Not that I don't trust your insight, I just don't want to get exited and then the storm fizzle on me)
I'm proud to say that I've had my "modelitis" shot!;)
Nick in St. Joe!
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Nick,

It does look better for Friday's storm, but it is still strange. So, yes, let's wait another day or two before we get too excited.

Gary

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Gary,
I was looking at last years blog and noticed this date, 2005, you were talking about temps in the 70s....what a coincidence. As far as "nowcasting" what will happen in 2 - 3 hours, can't you call your counterparts in Topeka or Wichita and ask them to look out their window? Cause we will usually be getting their weather as it moves east. Sorry, I'm feeling silly today.

Fayetteville Jim
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Jim,

There are big differences in the overall pattern, but it is a bit disturbing that it is warming up just like last year.

Gary

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Please explain the barometic pressure effect on fishing. When is best to fish high or low pressure?
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Cyrill,

I will have to do some research. Maybe a blogger knows the answer.

Gary