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Welcome to KC Jeremy! We look forward to seeing you on the weekend news. You picked a great weather team to join, as you may have read in past viewer blog entries, Gary and his weather team are the best around! We also look forward to reading your blog entries.

Gary I'll try my hardest not to get too excited about the potential storm. I'll just be wishing VERY hard that we get a few inches of snow. I'll have to re-think my decision to wait until your winter forecast comes out before I put my entry into the snowflake contest ;-)
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Koyuki,

Thanks, Jeremy says thank you too. We haven't shown him how to blog yet but we will soon.

Gary

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Hi! Gary, I hope you are wrong about the
snow this early! I really don't like the
stuff at all. Let's hope it goes around
us:)
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Jan,

Here we go. You are implying that I am saying it is going to snow. Nooooooooooo! This is why sometimes I can't even mention it. Do the rest of you agree? I am not going to be right or wrong about the snow, unless I am actually forecasting it. I said it is showing up but don't get excited.

Gary

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Oh, I can already see the run on salt and new snow shovels! :)
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Jon,

Don't hype it up yet, it is just fantasy. The new data already backed off on it, but it is still somewhat there.

Gary

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Don't worry we won't get tooo excited just keeping our "finger crossed"!
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Andrew,

Some of you get too excited.

Gary

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Gary,
Oh my SNOW. I am excited even if you tell me not to be. I love snow and have been disappointed the past few winters. I hope that this winter turns out be a great snow winter. Others in my family probably feel diffrently, haha.
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Shannon,

Hold down your excitement.

Gary

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Gary,
I have e-mailed the webmaster on the NWS Pleasant Hill homepage. I have also told a lot of other people to e-mail the webmaster. All reporting stations last night were in the 20s and teens and KCI was barely below freezing.
They have not responded with any reason as to why the thermometer continues to read so warm. Until then, on nights with a clear sky and light winds you should forecast low temperatures in a 10-15F range around the region :)
Devin
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Devin,

Temperatures are often separated by 10 degrees early on a clear morning. So, we should show a graphic on those days showing the differences in the forecast lows.

Thanks for helping. We'll see what happens.

Gary

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You go Gary! You are the best. I have learned that what you say at 10 PM will happen. As a native Kansas Citian, I know to wait until the last minute to know what is going on.
Welcome to Jeremy!
Debbie
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Debbie,

Yes, the weather pattern is always in constant flux. It looks similar this morning, but there is no snow on the new data.

Gary

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Gary:
As a fellow Minnesotan, I wish Jeremy the best and he can keep us up to date on the weather pattern for our part of the country on your blog. This can be his first duty.
The month of Oct. was cold and dry here in Mn. and continues to be that way into Nov. I hope you see some moisture for the Dakotas and Mn. for the coming year, because we are really dry.
You do a great job and like your insight.
Rod
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Rod,

Thank you and I will pass the message along to Jeremy.

Gary

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I understand what you were saying. Models indicate something, but it's so far away, it's impossible to determine what it is. I think it's good to at least mention what your seeing, most of us who read your blog daily and have an ounce of ability to think know this.

I think another person in this city (not going to mention anything else about this) may be trying to capitalize on this.... blah to them..
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Dave,

Thanks!

Gary

**************
Gary, I think most of us know you were giving us snow lovers a little bit of info to get excited about. We know you weren't saying it was going to snow, but it sure is nice to here there is a slight sign of some snow on the maps. Sadly, I know what you have said about the maps changing everyday.
Thanks
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Ann,

The snow better not wait until January.

Gary

******************
I like the fact that you mention that snow may come. It sorta gives me the "feel" of being behind the scenes with you guys. I won't hold you to the snow until I see you say it on the TV. Is that fair? However, on a personal note, I am so hoping that you are right. You gotta remember too that since this is the first snow fall mention, you are gonna hear alot of "oh no not yet" or "oh my goodness its gonna snow, I can't wait". Take it how you will. I like the feeling of being on the inside and you throwing your feelings around here, then no one holding them to you if you should be wrong so far out. That, of course, is just my opinion.
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Keri,

There you go, I have no chance of being right or wrong since I have not put a chance of snow in the forecast. Perhaps it is better to not think, "I hope he is right", but rather, "I hope this chance continues to show up and that Gary continues talking about it and then puts it in the forecast". At this point it isn't a matter of being right or wrong. If it snows in two weeks I am not going to boast about mentioning it. Now, If I truly said it is going to snow in two weeks and it did then I could say that, but this is not what I was saying.

Gary

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Hi Gary, I blogged a while back about thinking we were in the same pattern as 1987. You said you hoped we were and you were in Oklahoma that year I think. I thought our first frost would be early based on 1987 - and it was. If you flollow 1987, it shows snow for the area around the 8th of November. It also shows a blizzard in early to mid December with up to 10". 40 days ago you said my theory was more coindence than anything, but the frost did arrive the exact same day as 1987. And we're following the exact same temp pattern -although actually a bit cooler.
I think last year you predicted 11" of snow? In 1987 we had about 17" depending on the area. Still lower than average, but in 1987 all of it came in two blasts-Dec and Feb, with the coldest temps in mid Feb.
Gary B.
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Gary B.,

I was in Oklahoma in the winter of '87-'88 and Oklahoma City had about 20 inches of snow that winter, well above their 8 inch average. I have a collage of pictures on my wall right next to my desk here in the Forecast Center showing all of the snow and ice in Oklahoma that year.

Now, with this said, this weather pattern is NOT like that year. There are a few similarities, but many differences already. Every year is unique. But, this pattern looks like it will have the potential to produce some nice storm systems. I am still figuring it out with the winter forecast now 6 days away.

Gary

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Gary:
We bloggers know that it's just a hunch and not your forecast. We know that the further out it is, the less reliable it is. That being said, boy I loooove the possibility of a winter storm. We bloggers love exciting weather.

On another note, welcome to Jeremy! We will miss Jamie, but are always very excited to have new insights and opinions!
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Jennifer,

I get excited too and this is why I brought it up. It isn't showing up on the latest data, but it is still early.

We miss Jamie already. Jeremy is going to do a great job but it could take a while for him to settle into a routine. We have been training him pretty hard the past few days.

Gary

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SNOW SNOW SNOW...Gary said its going to snow! LOL. I crack me up. Gary, you should know better than saying anything at all..especially at 120hr. I think you are foreshadowing without taking the full risk. If you see a potential for snow...say it, and own it. Otherwise..don't mention it at all. That way you will not get the responses you knew you would get. ;-)

Now...Scott's weather service says its going to SNOW! I say that based on the trend I have been tracking since the SMC died. Every 5 days, either a sagging canadian front or the vort eject from the pacific trough. See previous blogs for the exact pattern, or maybe next blog I will post it again. We will call this the SMCv.2!

[cackles as I hit the Post button]
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Yeah, O.K. Scott,

I can mention the potential for snow or something down the line and it will be O.K. But, we know it isn't a forecast until I put it in the forecast.

Gary

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Heck, you're right about not getting excited. Technically every time its below freezing it 'could' snow. Thanks for the tidbit. While you didn't even forecast it, it feels good to have that ray of hope.

Take the 70s out of next weeks forecast. They make me sad.
-------------------------
Shawn,

I love the 70s. It could make it even more exciting when the cold front comes through the day after or even during that warmer day. It is more dramatic.

Gary

*****************
Gary,

You said at your 5 o'clock newscast tonight that you keep hitting your forecast temperature right on the past few days. If the KCI thermometer is wrong as you suspect, then aren't your forecasts really wrong as well? Just a thought I was pondering after your newscast.
-----------------------

Mark,

The forecasts have still been within 3 degrees, and we verify with KCI Airport, and we have calculated the problem with KCI to make sure we are within 3. So, we are still correct. Should I boast that we have now hit it on the nose 4 days in a row? Maybe not, but last night I did tell Jeff that let's go up to 54 because we know KCI will be that high.

Gary

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I have seen Jeremy's work and he will indeed be a great addition to the KSHB weather team and Kansas City. He'll come to love our city in no time, same as we do. Jeremy already has a fan base here in the Northland, so knock 'em dead! We look forward to the KSHB weather team's continued excellence in the time to come. Thanks for the good work you guys do everyday!
----------------------------
TW,

Thank you for the confidence in Jeremy. We saw him do the weather in Madison when Jeff Penner and I were up there for a seminar. I like the way he describes the weather. It may be a while before he really knows our region, but he'll catch on fast.

Gary

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Hello Mr. Lezak,
I do believe the KCI thermometer is off because my mother went to the airport this morning and told me that her car thermometer read 22.

Hopefully they can get that fixed.
----------------------
Ben,

They told me that it is calibrated correctly. It may be at a high location in the area.

Gary

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Wow, you can almost just "think" the word snow while doing a blog and people will go nuts! I think you can still mention the chance, BUT put the disclaimer before mentioning the possibility and have the disclamer in CAPS LOCK:) As for me, well if a chance holds into within a 72 hour period before its supposed to occur then I will start to get excited( the chance might already be gone as I am writing this blog I have not looked at any models since I was at college earlier.
Thanks for your time.
Nick in St. Joe!
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Nick,

Exactly! Five days before gets interesting. 3 days before we can get excited. But, even on the day of a major snowstorm, right before it happens we always wonder if it materialize because of the snow busts that have happened. So, if we are concerned with the snow forecast hours before, then how can we really get excited days ahead. But, it is fun to think about it.

Gary

*************
Gary,

Is it about safe to say that the 70 degree temperatures forecasted towards the end of next week are probably the last 70 degree readings we see for a long time?
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Jon,

It may be. With the pattern we are in I would think next week is the last chance of 70s. But, even in cold winters we make a run at 70 sometime in December or January and almost always in February.

Gary

*******************
OK Gary.....how is this. I hope that the pattern you are seeing so far out stays the same so that you will have to put snow in your forecast for the same day you do your winter weather special. Hehehe, I know its already changed, but just wanted to be funny so early in the morning. Also, if Scott thinks it will snow, I will take that too. He makes some very good and interesting points on posts. However, I WILL hold Scott to the snow!!! Have a great Friday.
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Keri,

Scott already forecasted snow once, so he is 0 for 1. Even if he is right about this one he would be 50% accurate. Do you think we will here from Scott today? LOL This is why you must wait until you really see the chance. The pattern is just beginning to look established.

Gary

**********
Gary,

If the KCI thermometer is calibrated correctly, then as you said it might be a location problem and I am not sure if they will change it at all. I have emailed the webmaster at pleasant hill and have had no response since the last 2 days. Hope something is done soon.
---------------------
Mahesh,

I don't think they are going to do anything about it.

Gary

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One crucial fact to consider. I am not a meteorologist, nor have the same tools, nor have the same resources, nor have the same responsibility. That being said..I will keep swinging for the fence. Now...if I got paid for this, it would be a bit different ;-)
--------------------------
Scott,

Swing away, but then am I the only one who can give you a hard time when you blow the forecast? This weather pattern is very strange. What is happening? We are likely now cycling through whatever this pattern is and different aspects to it are showing up every day. So, this is why it takes until around November 10th to get a handle on what it is really doing. And, then around mid December to realize, "oh, that's what it is really doing".

Gary