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 November 7, 2006

We have a little dry spell going on

Good morning,

The dry spell reaches 11 days in a row without measurable rain. We had some drizzle that added up to a trace yesterday, but this could end up being the longest dry spell of the year. We had a 15 day dry spell with no measurable rain from February 17th to March 3rd. There were two days with a trace of precipitation during that stretch, but it is the longest stretch of the year of no measurable rain, until possibly this one.

We are two nights away from our winter forecast. This extremely complex weather pattern continues to show itself and we are slowly coming to some conclusions on what will likely happen this winter. I can tell you that I was more excited weeks ago than I am today about the pattern, but I still don't think we are "doomed" like we knew we were last year. There is potential. It is amazing, but with two days to go we are literally going to be working on this up to almost the last minute to put the finishing touches on our presentation for the 10 PM news on Thursday night. I will be talking a little about my theory, but then also getting to the points that everyone wants to know, like how much snow, will it be cold, any ice, etc. I will be getting about 3 extra minutes to tell this complex weather story.

In the mean time, this next storm takes on a different look every day. The latest GFS takes the Friday night storm north of us. Let's see what the new data shows today.

Gary

Posted by at November 7, 2006 7:49 AM

Comments

*************
Great, now I am worried we are gonna have another boring weather year. Thursday is not coming soon enough.
------------------
Kerri,

All I can say now is that there is a lot of hope. We literally need two more days and we can come up with a confident forecast for this winter. Remember, it can't be worse than last year, even though we had that one big snowstorm out of no where.

Gary

Posted by: Keri Worley at November 7, 2006 8:13 AM

**********************
Morning Gary and the weather team. So I am hearing from you that you believe the weather pattern will be a little different from last year but probably not much? These warm days this week are similar to last year but that huge ridge isn't in place like what happened last year? Since we don't get you anymore on our cable in Topeka, I hear your forecasts on KUDL in KC, can you post your winter forecast on line? Golly I hope we have at least 20-25 inches of snow this year. It would be nice. The fall pattern seemed different this year though from last couple of years. Could that be significant in your pattern you see? Thanks for your accurate forecasts. Michael/Topeka
-------------------
Michael,

The pattern is very different from last year. But, will we get results? This is what I am trying to figure out. And, yes, we will have the winter forecast on line by Friday or early next week.

Gary

Posted by: michael huffman at November 7, 2006 8:16 AM

************
Hi, Gary, Jeff, Brett, Jeremy... and the rest of the bloggers!

It's Jamie... blogging from Dayton, Ohio! I have been working already--I was on the air this past weekend. Everything is going great... and I am showing the other meteorologists a lot of graphic ideas I learned from Gary and Jeff. They think it's pretty cool, and they're calling me at home now to help them put stuff together! :)

Today, I am going house hunting! It is cloudy and raining here, as this trough is swinging through. There is a very nice fall feel to the day! I can't believe the warm-up that is heading your/our way for the end of the week! You'll get it more than us... but even a day or so near 70 will be welcome here in Ohio!

Well... I am off... wish me luck on the house-hunting mission! And good luck to YOU, analyzing those 500mb charts for the GRC!
Jamie
----------------------
Jamie,

Today was a crazy day of election coverage and I just started looking at the comments. I will post yours as an entry.

We miss you so much! The weather pattern is looking more interesting tonight!

Gary

Posted by: Jamie at November 7, 2006 8:53 AM

******************
gary,

i have just looked at the newest GFS data and it suggests we could get somekind of precip monday. What do you think about that?

thanks
Andy
-----------------------
Andy,

Each storm now must be watched for the potential for snow. Friday's storm and early next week's storm both have potential, but since there is so much Pacific flow these storms aren't being allowed to amplify enough. But, let's continue to watch the trends. Last year it was 82 degrees on November 8th, and then it snowed on the 15th. So, it can happen and fast.

Gary

Posted by: Andy at November 7, 2006 1:10 PM

***************
Gary,

i kno you always say it is too far out to say, but i wanted to kno when you think we will have the chance for some snow. I havnt had a real winter in so long :( hopefully we will have a good one this year
thanks
Andy
------------------
Andy,

It isn't "always" too far out. If I believe it will snow 7 days from now I will let you know. This year's pattern hasn't been figured out yet and based on what has been happening we can't say anything about next week's storm system. But, as soon as I see something more reliable then I will go for it.

Gary

Posted by: Andy at November 7, 2006 1:21 PM

*****************
Provided we get the cold air, I think this will be an ok year. I like the flex of the Pacific trough spitting out vorts our way. They seem to be strengthing at the right point thus far. Also, I think [gut feel] we will get the N end of the vorts as they come through. I do think the Canadian fronts will be cold but dry this year for us.
------------------
Scott,

I wish we had one more week to put this together. But, it's O.K. It is November 8th. The weather pattern is likely set and cycling. But, what exactly is it. I have my ideas and usually my initial guess at what it is comes through. So, my confidence level is high and we are going to crunch and have it ready by Thursday. There are some key characteristics to this years pattern that are dominant and I will be talking about it soon. I hate giving it to our competition, but then again, I don't think they believe in my theory. So, they won't buy it. But, I do know that they are paying attention and will be putting it into their thoughts. And, I can't do anything about that.

Gary

Posted by: Scott at November 7, 2006 3:20 PM

**********
Okay I will hold on with hope but I am with Michael, I would love to have 25 inches of snow too.
-------------------
Keri,

One more night! I am making some conclusions. Will you like them? Maybe?

Gary

Posted by: Keri Worley at November 7, 2006 4:20 PM

***********************
Gary,
Thanks for the info on the 17th. I'll be watching carefully of course. Hope you and your Dad have a great visit - rainy or not!

As usual, I'll miss your 10 p.m. 'cast tomorrow night - just can't stay up that late getting up at 4 like I do. So, hope it gets posted to the site soon!

I know alot of you want an "exciting" winter - lots of snow and all - but I can do without it for the most part! Would like it very cold, tho'!

Have a great day everybody! - mt
------------------------
Mike,

I have the request in to our webmaster. Hopefully it will go online by Friday.

Gary

Posted by: Mike at November 8, 2006 6:11 AM

*************
I must be the only person in the midwest who doesn't look forward to snow. I HAVE to go to work, no matter how bad the weather, because I work at a hospital. I don't enjoy driving in the snow, though better than ice, at 0600, trying to see where I'm going. So today is the weather I love, 80 degrees, just like back home in the southwest. Sorry but I kind of enjoyed last winter with only minimal snow days. I know, boo hiss to the California girl LOL
----------------------

Jeri,

I love 80 degrees too. I also love a snowstorm.

Gary

Posted by: Jeri at November 8, 2006 2:16 PM

 
 

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