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Click to enlarge (168 hr 500 mb GFS valid Thanksgiving Day)
Good morning, IT'S FRIDAY!
Something is happening! And, it is good. We go through this every year after we make our winter forecast. The next few days always look different than what we forecasted. It should be no surprise because remember, according to my theory, we are cycling through a pattern now. We just don't have the # of days defined, and we don't know all of the phases of the weather pattern. The cycle has been as long as 76 days and as short as 34 days or so. The average length of the cycle during the past few years has been around 55 to 60 days. So, It should be no surprise that right after I make the winter forecast the part of the cycle that is about to happen hasn't really happened yet, so the weather pattern, at this moment, can look exactly opposite to what I was explaining just days before. This makes sense to me, but I can imagine how confusing this would be to you this morning. We will really know the pattern in a few weeks, but my first impression and forecast is usually very close.
So, as I have been saying all along. Just be patient. It can't be as bad as it has been looking. The above 500 mb chart is still 7 days away. All it shows is a trough, rather weak working its way across the western United States. Look at the difference from yesterday's 500 mb forecast at 168 hours. Now, today's is valid one day later, but it is still a huge difference. Remember the computer models have all kinds of errors by 24 hours. So, by 72 hours the errors are exponentially becoming extreme. By 168 hours it is amazing that we can use this data at all. This is why 7 day forecasts should be used as a trend because a storm showing up 7 days away will either not be there, or it will happen on day 5, 6, or 8.
Have a great day. Try to be patient. I like the latest trends. My prediction for the first one inch of snow is December 10th at 4:35 PM.
My father is coming to Kansas City this weekend with my half brother and his fiance. This is very exciting and I will try to get a picture for next week.
Posted by at November 17, 2006 6:32 AM
Have a great weekend with your family Gary! I'm glad this weekend's weather will be mild. I'm getting married this evening and am looking forward to a pleasant evening! -mt
Congratulations! Good luck. The weather looks good for a wedding.
Posted by: Mike at November 17, 2006 7:06 AM
I hope things get more exciting and we can get some action. I don't want to get into names, but another station (where you used to work) is blogging about a very very low snow total this year and it seems to me that they are over and I mean over analyzing things. Anywho......I want you to be right!
It is better to be consistant. I like what we are seeing this morning. This trend should continue. We stay with our original thoughts as my theory has worked every year. We will really know the pattern well within a month or so. As it reveals itself it can be frustrating.
Posted by: Bruce Richardson at November 17, 2006 7:33 AM
Yup..about a 40-45 day cycle this year. I still think I will hit on the 25th per the SMCv.2, and again on the 30th.
If I have learned one thing this year, its this...once you find a trend, stick to it..the models will try to fool you!
And, when we really know the pattern well we will know when the models are right and when they are way off. A big forecasting advantage.
Have a great weekend.
Posted by: Scott at November 17, 2006 9:42 AM
Gary, I just heard Brett say he used Ziacam for his cold. Have him look on truth or fiction about the product as it's disputable how it can harm you. And you have a great weekend with the family. They are so important to all of us.
I will make sure Brett reads your message.
Posted by: Ginger at November 17, 2006 10:04 AM
Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family!
I haven't heard you talk about them for a while. I remember when you were going through treatments, they were here quite a bit. Nothing in the world like family. My grown sons and one daughter in law will be here for the first time in over 3 years.
Better get cooking! Great weather for them it looks like! Go Chiefs!
Thank you so much. We should have a good visit! Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family too.
Posted by: Debbie at November 17, 2006 10:21 AM
Just wanted to check in.. Great weather for this weekend to put up my lights ect.. Hope you have a GREAT Thanksgiving Gary...
You have a great holiday too.
Posted by: Bil at November 17, 2006 11:28 AM
I've been following your blog and winter forecast discussions. Until recently, I had hoped that the winter and year ahead might actually be different than the last several. I think your weather pattern theory makes sense but quite honestly right now I don't know what to believe.
I WANT to believe that your winter forecast will hold (at least close to) true. However, the pattern we're in and have been in for several days, reminds me a lot of last year. It seemed to establish itself in the last week of October this year, and has persisted since then. This pattern now is all about westerly/northwesterly flow, high pressure ridges, wind, warmth and dryness. Whatever is causing this is very strong and persistent. Just about the time we think we're coming out of it this pattern snaps back into place.
My holiday wish is that a wet and stormy pattern establishes itself in our region, and sticks around for a good long while. I get the distinct feeling that (again) it isn't going to happen this year, but wouldn't it be wonderful?
The pattern is just cycling. Be patient. My forecast will hopefully come through. Let's see what we think one month from now. It likely isn't a very wet pattern, but it should bring us adequat moisture. I firmly believe it, even though right now it doesn't seem possible.
Posted by: Doug at November 17, 2006 1:05 PM
Alright, I won't hit the panic button yet...
But I won't lock it away either:)
It is true that the cold season around here is really our dry season too, so even in a decent pattern it stands to reason that you are going to have some dry streaks and still end up being fine on precip in the end because you can catch up quick unlike the spring and summer months which is the opposite case.
Thanks for your time.
Nick in St. Joe!
Yes, we can catch up fast. The pattern is slowly going through the cycle. We just haven't defined all of the characteristics yet.
Posted by: Nick Rau at November 17, 2006 1:09 PM
Do you see the pattern getting more exciting at the end of Nov and on into Dec? I hope it gets better
I do like the trend right now. It can't stay this boring for long.
Posted by: Andy at November 17, 2006 4:43 PM
Hello weather team,
any chance of that snow out west making it here?
There wan't any snow to our west. They were echoes aloft. I know of at least one other source that thought it was snowing out there, but it wasn't.
Posted by: Ben Tracy at November 18, 2006 5:49 PM
Hi. I read a post by someone about telling Brett that Zicam may not be safe. I just wanted to give you some info to give him. You don't have to post it to the blog; I just felt it was important to clarify, as I am an Intern Pharmacist.
The nasal version of Zicam is the safest form of zinc you can use. The only somewhat annoying side effect would be a temporary decrease in smell.
It should not be used if you are pregnant (I doubt Brett is pregnant) or have kidney problems. Also, it shouldn't be used while you are taking tetracycline (antibiotic) or a quinolone antibiotic. (Quinolones are easy to spot because they have "quin" somewhere in their name.)
As for the zinc you take by mouth, breads, vegetables, fruits, eggs, and beverages (e.g. milk, coffee) interfere with absorption. For better absorption, it should be separated from food & drink, other than water, by at least 1 hour. The oral form can be hard on your liver, so tell your doctor if your eyes or skin start to turn yellow.
Zicam IS clinically proven to decrease the length AND severity of a cold. It will not work for the flu, however. I use it, and I highly recommend it for Brett, unless he has kidney or prostate issues.
I believe your new meteorologist is working this weekend... welcome to Kansas City, and HURRY UP AND POST A BLOG! :)
Thanks for the info!
Posted by: Beth Johnson at November 18, 2006 9:32 PM
The Gulf of Alaska low will not go away. The GFS forecasts no decent ridges in the Eastern Pacific. This is looking very similar to last year.
The latest run moves that low OUT. Let's see if this continues in the next few model runs.
Posted by: Devin at November 19, 2006 9:53 AM
are there any new deveopments in the weather patern? Does it still look exciting at the end of Nov and into Dec?
Must be patient?
Posted by: Andy at November 19, 2006 3:23 PM
Very interesting blog...just stumbled upon it.
I have always heard it said that often the weather in October and November does not relate to the winter. Why have you found your theory typically does work?
I hope your forecast is right! It would bode well for central Kansas as well, which is where I am. You were pretty accurate on the warmth last year when many were screaming cold.
It isn't the October and November actual weather that we experience that counts. It is the overall weather pattern that sets up. It then cycles for the next 10 months, according to my theory. You can have completely different results from the same pattern. The flow in January is much more energetic than it is in October and this is how the same patten could result in the exact opposite affect at a different time of the year.
This year's pattern is unique just like every year. In other words it has never happened before. So, my first guess as to what will happen is just a guess, but usually fairly close. We will know this pattern much better soon.
Posted by: Roy at November 19, 2006 11:37 PM
I missed your winter forecast last week, any chance you could restate what it is? Your team is the only team I would consider watching for my weather information. I turn to Brett every morning and to you every night, so I can tell the kids what to expect when they get ready for school.
You can just click on the winter forecast on our weather page. I have an explanation and some graphics.
Thanks for the kind comments.
Posted by: Stephanie at November 21, 2006 11:14 PM