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The 06z data overnight is not good and has somewhat ruined my morning. I have tried to explain that things change. The weather is always changing. And, the latest models have trended strongly away from us having anything significant. I would really like to look at the new data in the 8 AM hour and then give you my oppinion.
The National Weather Service issued a Winter Storm Watch. It could have been issued too early. I wish they would have waited until this afternoon just in case something like this happened.
So, I will update this by mid morning. At least we had a very nice rain with thunderstorms. I will have some rainfall totals later. Send me your rainfall totals if you have the chance.
Posted by at November 28, 2006 6:30 AM
No rainfall total from Prairie Village where I live, but quite a bit of rain, thunder and lightening just ahead of the 4 a.m. hour. I knew I shoulda taken care of those leaves!
Have a great day Gary. Will look forward to your update! - mt
There is still hope, Mike. Let's see how we feel later.
Posted by: Mike at November 28, 2006 6:33 AM
We received .47 yesterday and .20 this morning here in Lee's Summit. It was nice to hear that thunder rumble this morning...I can't wait til Spring!
Mike & Jenn,
Thanks for the totals. Some areas had well over an inch. Maybe you will get some more on Wednesday.
Posted by: Mike & Jenn at November 28, 2006 6:54 AM
Well Gary..I guess all we can do is hope that the model run from last night was just a fluke and that we will still get something out of it. I know Brett had talked about that this morning on air that sometimes the models just throw something weird at you, and then go back to what they were originally. As for the new Winter Storm Watch that they had issued, I noticed that they had said they felt they should issue one since this will be the first taste of winter weather for the Kansas City area, but it does seem like they jumped the wagon too quickly. Let us know what you think about all of this later this morning.
I will update the blog this morning around 8:30. And, then again around 11 AM.
I can't believe they based part of their reasoning for the watch on this being our first taste of winter weather. They just should have waited and thought it out a bit longer.
Let's see what the new data looks like as it starts coming out soon.
Posted by: Bryan at November 28, 2006 6:57 AM
Unbelievable!!! Where did the storm go? How could it be there for 6 or so runs and then POOF, gone. What the heck is happening. Ya know, everyone in my family always says, "Mike, you should have been a weatherman." Well, looking at what has just happened, there is no way in you know what that I would want to subject myself to this kind of stress everyday of my life. Good luck figuring this one out Gary, my thoughts are with you today. Maybe the 6UTC went out drinking last night and the 12 will be better. AHHHHH!!!
Yes, you can imagine how frustrating it was for me this morning. The storm may still be there but it just may be further south and not get its act together in time for us. Let's see what the trend is.
Posted by: Mike P at November 28, 2006 6:59 AM
1.57" of rain here in my corner of SW Lawrence.
That is a lot of rain for this time of the year. It will help with your soil moisture for the next month or so. Now, will we get more?
Posted by: Bob from Lawrence at November 28, 2006 7:05 AM
Merriam received .78
Thank you for the total!
Posted by: Steve at November 28, 2006 7:29 AM
Good Morning Gary.. WOW snow in my home town of Seattle.. No snow here? Hopefully the models will reverse and we get some of the white stuff. Rain total on the eastside of Grandview was .70
The storm hasn't formed yet, so let's see how things look later today.
Posted by: Bill at November 28, 2006 7:44 AM
1.06" in northeast Olathe.
Thanks for the total.
Posted by: Elaine at November 28, 2006 7:50 AM
I have lived in the KC area for 5 years now and this has been the story for the full 5 years. Yes we get the occasional freak storm like last year but most do what this one is showing. Yeah it dives south, but just doesn't realize that it is going way too far south!!! Then it totally forms and strengthens just past us.
True to form!
It may be "true to form". Let's hope it provides a new interesting twist. As I have stated things change.
Posted by: Leonard at November 28, 2006 8:02 AM
You say the storm is tracking more south does that mean Appleton City is still in the snow with this latest model run? Wow i hope things change
Posted by: Daniel at November 28, 2006 8:04 AM
The weather service was talking about a big ice storm and power line damage. I have too many things going on this week to lose time to a power outage. If the choice is between an ice storm and the whole thing missing us, I'd rather go with the whole thing missing us. So I'm rooting for the new models to be correct, or at least pointing away from the ice storm outcome.
Posted by: John at November 28, 2006 8:05 AM
Gary...I've learned to get excited about the storms that are flurries 3-days out because those turn into something good, but the big blast storms 3-days out always will miss us. My friend in Oregon sent me pics last night of snow and it rarely snows in his location, yet we have nothing.
Posted by: Chris at November 28, 2006 8:07 AM
We received 1.20 total in Shawnee. That rain was almost as nice as the points that NU will "rain" down on OU Saturday night! :)
GO BIG RED!!!
Posted by: Jon M at November 28, 2006 8:12 AM
Wow, I really enjoy your insight on the weather. You are correct, if we do not get the snow, then your foreacst is NOT a bust, becasue you really never forecasted snow. I like your wait and see approach. I know that is a tough call too. But you are looking at all the data very carefully, and checking out all the details. That is a good thing. You have a good "Attention to Detail."
As far as the WSW, I am not surprised NWS jumped the gun. Then again, they cannot win either. I do think they could have waited a few more hours. However, look at it this way, it will make them look like fools not you, although I know you have to broadcast the watch. I am sure you will make it clear YOU did not issue the watch, but the NWS did that. If this storm turns out to be nothing - it will be a bust for them. By the way, if this storm does miss us, it will be another storm that bit the dust. :-) That just means it missed us! We shall see, there is hope, right?
I did see in the NWS discussions that they think the storm will go further south, so maybe they are seeing the same things you are. Still, they are worried about ICE. If we get ice out of this storm, depending on how much we actually get, that will make your winter forecast accurate to so far. You forecast 1 perhaps 2 ice storms. So we shall see. I would much rather see snow then ice, so I hope that is what we get.
Anyway, have fun, and keep up the good work. I really like it when you go into details in your bloggs!
Brian - Overland Park
Posted by: Brian at November 28, 2006 8:12 AM
I am hoping this storm tracks a little farther north. The Springfield MO NWS issued there winter storm watch with snow included. I would not be happy if areas farher south get snow and we get nothing. I am awaiting the 12Z model runs and the new EMCWF.
Posted by: Devin at November 28, 2006 8:13 AM
Good morning, Gary. Boy, I'd hate to be in your shoes today! :) I know this one is a toughie, so I'll keep my eyes peeled for your update at 8:30am. Keeping my fingers crossed for lots 'o snow, but I won't be holding my breath.
One other thing - I really appreciate how you respond to each and every blogger on this site. That gives it a very personal touch. Nice job.
Posted by: Christi at November 28, 2006 8:17 AM
I just wanted to let you know that in West Central Mn. we received about .50 inches of rain in a thunderstorm this morning at about 4.30 am. I really liked to see the lightning and hear the thunder.
Lightly raining now and foggy. We are suppose to stay above freezing today and get the artic blast starting tomorrow.
We have more chances on Sat. and next Monday. We will see what happens.
By the way , tell Jeremy that I am from the Willmar area in Mn.
Posted by: Rod at November 28, 2006 8:21 AM
1" by Ward Pkwy Mall.
I think it is wholly irresponsible that the NWS issues a Watch based on it being the potential 1st storm of the year. All that does is create confusion later in the Winter when there really is a need to post a Watch. One of those "Cry Wolf" situations.
Anyhow, I've been superimpressed by you and one of your comptetitors on keeping a cool head regarding the potential storm.
Posted by: Hank at November 28, 2006 8:23 AM
Remember everyone its what actually happens not what the models forecast that really counts.
There have been times when the models said nothing and WHAMO big snow storm and then there are times when we're all thinking 10+" of snow and nothing happens or it rains. Sure we all got excited about the models showing us a winter storm and now they're backing off today but realize the model runs change from one to the other.
We always hear about the trend the models are showing. This means that noone takes it seriously if it just shows one or two things. YES this morning's run breaks the trend of us getting a good storm but we could still trend that way later on today and tomorrow.
Nobody jump out the windows yet. :-)
Posted by: Shawn at November 28, 2006 8:41 AM
we're dun.......saw the new models coming out and they make the 06 run look good.....not a good trend at all
Posted by: Bruce Richardson at November 28, 2006 8:44 AM
we're dun.......saw the new models coming out and they make the 06 run look good.....not a good trend at all
Posted by: Bruce Richardson at November 28, 2006 8:45 AM
Received 1.3in at 148th and Metcalf. You know it would be to good to be true about an early season snow. Do see anything else on the horizon?
Posted by: Sandy at November 28, 2006 9:02 AM
Why are you so dissapointed? Anytime we can miss out on an ice storm, I take that as a blessing.
Posted by: Nate at November 28, 2006 9:08 AM
Ok, so I and my kids were looking forward to a possible snow storm for Thursday. However, I was bummed that I would not win the snowflake contest. So, on a positive note, since I picked Dec 8th as my date I would still be in the running if we do not get the snow. :) No matter what, you are still our favorite meterologist! Have a great day!
Posted by: Lisa at November 28, 2006 9:09 AM
I can see Gary is getting a bit excited. One bad run and everyone is freaked out. Don't worry..wait for the 12Z.
But...looking at the NAM...eek..it looks like the GFS.
The SPC SREF isn't too much better.
Posted by: Scott at November 28, 2006 9:12 AM
Hows that new data look? I hope I didn't get excited for nothing again.
Posted by: Danny at November 28, 2006 9:16 AM
Well one model run does not a trend make. I'm not positive on this, but wasn't the 06 GFS the first full run after the storm actually came ashore? If so, it wouldn't be surprising for the models to take a significant shift at that time. The next couple of runs well give us, by us I mean Gary, a much better handle of what will happen.
If the next two runs continue to show a more progressive scenario, we're toast. Hopefully the models are just recalibrating as the storm actually forms and they'll go back to the stronger solutions of previous runs.
One last thought, in my experience 12 hours out you always want to be 50-100 miles North of the predicted bullseye and well North of the predicted rain/snow line. Models don't seem to handle the amount of warm moist air being pulled in from the South.
Posted by: Snowlover at November 28, 2006 9:18 AM
1.0" in downtown Overland Park. A good soaking rain.
I'm not surprised at all that the storm may go south...as someone else said, they do this a lot in winter, with heavier accumulations lining up along I-44 instead of I-35.
Posted by: Rob at November 28, 2006 9:26 AM
Is it possible we could (still)have an ice storm? 1/4 of ice is bad, even if we dont see snow? Or do you see this a an ice storm?
Posted by: Anne at November 28, 2006 9:29 AM
Looks like the winter storm watch is only for wednesday and wednesday night, which would cover the freezing rain/sleet potential when the front and post-frontal precipitation move through. Doesn't look like the watch covers any part of a "potential" storm on Thursday/Friday. Doesnt the NWS cover more than just Kansas City?
If you look at their definition for a watch as posted on their website (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/?n=product), it reads:
"A watch is issued whenever severe winter conditions are expected but not imminent. Watches are typically issued anywhere from 12 to 48 hours in advance of a winter storm."
Looks like we need to take a breathe about this situation and wait for the new data to come in, especially considering how the GFS flops quite a bit.
Posted by: Bill at November 28, 2006 9:36 AM
What does the new data say a different station says no snow for KC but i wanna know about down here in Appleton City.
Posted by: Daniel at November 28, 2006 9:46 AM
Wonderful 1" of rain overnight in Gladstone, MO.
Posted by: Helen Bredehoeft at November 28, 2006 9:51 AM
I agree with Leonard - it is a change in climate. You were good enough to do a speacial on global warming back in late summer - thanks Gary. All the patterns have changed and you still need to take this into account when forecasting.
Posted by: David Seibold at November 28, 2006 9:55 AM
I can not believe it. The 12Z shows nearly all of the precipitation in the warm sector of this storm, and very little in the cold sector. The low is even farther south. I guess better luck next time? I believe the NWS office(s) issued the winter storm watches too early!
Posted by: Devin at November 28, 2006 10:12 AM
What about over here in Marshall? Does this mean we lose too?
Posted by: Darin at November 28, 2006 10:32 AM
What do you know, winter storm ice armageddon once again turns out to be much ado about nothing. I wonder if the weather predictions are more motivated by storm models or by ratings?
Posted by: Mark at November 28, 2006 10:48 AM
Give it time. We're still a good 24 hours out on this storm and as Gary said the low hasn't even formed yet. There's still a chance of a good winter storm (hopefully not ice) and as we can all the the atmosphere is highly unstable right now (based on the huge amount of rain we got). It may have tuckered itself out (the storm) a little early but I still hold out hope for snow Wednesday-Thursday (somewhere in there).
I'm forecasting from my gut... never a good idea. :)
Posted by: Shawn at November 28, 2006 10:50 AM
Good Day--I am looking for the 8'ish update and the update from 11am but they are no where to be found, I am looking forward to seeing if we will get ice/snow, I hope so!!
If our student behavior today is any indication then my money is on getting some ice/snow!
Posted by: Monica at November 28, 2006 11:26 AM
Is there any possibility of these models changing? And if there is any chance of accumulation - snow or ice - how much would that be? Thanks.
Posted by: SnowJoe at November 28, 2006 12:04 PM
Where's the 11:00 am update? I'm on pins and needles!
Posted by: Monica at November 28, 2006 12:34 PM
I think the NWS was right on. The new model data 12Z suggests a quick change over Wednesday evening which is during the time of the watch.
As someone has stated earlier, a watch states that conditions are expected, but not imminent. I think of a WSW like a tornado watch meaning the potential is there, but nothing is definite.
Posted by: Sue at November 28, 2006 1:02 PM