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Good morning Gary,
First, I commend you on how well you explain the science of weather to the average guy. I have followed your blog, as well as another of your counterparts in the Metro, and over a year of tracking this you are by far the best. I no longer even think about visiting that site. I was a very disappointed snow lover last season when a huge snowstorm forecasted days out missed us all together. Since that time and following your blogs the past many months I have a better understanding of how intricate it is in forecasting this stuff. I guess maybe I need to be in the mountains so it is more of a sure bet. My son and I are anxiously awaiting your winter forecast, and are praying that SNOW is the big news this night. Have a great, warm day today. The countdown to 10pm is on......
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Keith,

Thank you, and I am glad you are thoroughly enjoying this blog. I know it probably gives valuable information to our competitors as well, but I think in the end this is O.K. We are being the weather leaders right?

We are now just a few hours away. I hope you enjoy the winter forecast. After tonight I will be going into even more detail in the blog Friday and on the newscasts as the weather pattern becomes even more obvious.

Gary

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I have the DVR set for tonight. Oddly, the SMCv.2 also has set, as I have seen the full pattern. I wonder if it has coorelations. I suspect it does, just on a different level. If it coorelates to the same beginning and end, then I would say the pattern set about a week ago. I believe it to be about a 40 day cycle if I remember the data correctly.

This will be a hoot. Side note - I did look at the other stations blog - yawn. Not enough challenge. LOL.

Later gater, good luck tonight!
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Scott,

Isn't this amazing. All of our discussions and it is finally here. If it is a good pattern then we get to enjoy it for 10 months. If it is a bad pattern then we suffer like last year. Last year we knew it was bad. This year, well, I think we are O.K., is it good? More in the next few weeks.

The latest El Nino report just came out and their forecast is actually opposite of mine in a few spots. It will be interesting to see how it ends up this winter.

Gary

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Don't sweat the stress too much. Predicting Midwest weather during the winter is like rolling dice even with good patterns and forecast models. Forecasting tornadoes is easier! (I've be a Skywarn spotter sinc ethe late 70's, though I don't get out as much as I used too!)

No judgement call here. :)
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Thanks David,

My theory helps out a lot, and each year we learn more. It is still very complex

Have a great day!

Gary

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Gary,
Can't wait for tonight. I was looking at this mornings 6UTC GFS run. It has a crazy scenario setting up for the end of next week. I know that lately, watching the GFS is more like wish casting but my question is, does that storm that is showing up coincide with another storm earlier in the GRC or does it not fit?

I can now see how knowing a pattern can help forecasting a future event. Especially if a storm is or is not showing up on any models, but you know from the cycle that a storm will or will not be here at any given time despite what any computers say. Great work, thanks for the explanations and feel free to get as scientific as you want. It won't bother me.
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Mike,

I will get a bit more scientific in the blog Friday. And, good observation. If a storm fits into what we believe the pattern is then we can go for it with confidence. The problem at this early stage of the season as we are just figuring out the pattern. It is December, and especially January through June where it really helps, since we can go back and see that storm that is about to occur.

Next week's storm has some characteristics that fit, and some I am not so sure about.

Gary

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Gary..shame on you for peeking at the lastest ENSO report. You have stated it does not affect the GRC. ;-) [I secretly think it does to a small extent]

I will update more info later on SMCv.2
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Scott,

It really is amazing, but I don't believe it has much impact. So, shame on you!

Gary

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Gary,

Anxiously awaiting the weather forecast this evening. Will you be explaining, in depth, the pattern and its intricacies for us newbie weather watchers? I want to say hello and thanks to my buddy TJ Johnson for turning me on to the Blog too!

Brooke
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Brooke,

Thank you and thank you TJ as well. I will be explaining a bit tonight, but more details to follow.

Gary

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Gary,

Why dont you have a special slot for discussing the Winter weather forecast along with your entire team instead of just an additional 3 minute slot during the 10 PM slot? This would give you a better chance of explaning the GRC to the common man as well as getting to the specifics in more detail. I am sure the weatherbuffs of the KC area would love it.
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Mahesh,

Our boss won't let us do it as we just don't have the time allowed for it. But, you are correct. I need another 5 minutes at least.

Gary

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Gary,

Are you still seing that chance of snow you mentioned the other night? I cant wait to hear your winter forecast. I want to have one of those news worthy snowstorms sometime this winter(2or3ft.) I have been here in the kansas City area for 14 years and i have yet to see one of those.
Thanks
Andy
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Andy,

Poof, it's gone!

Gary

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HI GARY-
I AM ANXIOUSLY AWAITING YOUR WINTER FORECAST TONIGHT. I ALWAYS GET EXCITED IN ANTICIPATION OF WHAT'S TO COME EACH SEASON.
ABOUT YOUR WINTER FORECAST THEORY- HAVE YOU EVER THOUGHT ABOUT OR IS IT EVEN POSSIBLE TO MAYBE JUST HAVE A SEMINAR AT SAY JUCO WHERE YOU CAN SHARE YOUR KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERTISE TO PEOPLE WHO ARE JUST INTERESTED IN THE WEATHER?

SUSY
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Susy,

I may have a seminar some day. I did present it in Washington D.C. a year ago in front of about 500 meteorologists.

Gary

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Gary, I am counting down to your Winter Forecast. Only about 7 hours now. I know you are hard at work on your winter forecast, but Nebraska Dad wanted to send you another winter forecast that he saw back home. Here is the link - http://www.wowt.com/weather - Once there, in the middle of the page to the right of the 7 day forecast, you will see a box of Featured Videos. Click on the camera next to Jim's Winter Forecast. I found it funny because he stated that the pattern won't "set in" but like you have been saying - we will have this pattern for the next 10 months. Mark
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Mark,

I saw that forecast. Completely based on El Nino. Yes, the pattern will exist into summer, but what is the pattern? This is what we will know even better within a few weeks.

Gary

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You have got me all pumped up for the winter forecast tonight. I think you do a great job and have the #1 weather team. You going out on your own for the last decade to build this theory is incredible!!!! I know you have been spending lots of time pouring over the details.

Thanks for all your hard work and passion
Joe
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Joe,

Yes, we have really spent a lot of time on it. Now, what will end up happening? We will find out.

Gary

And, what always happens? After we make the forecast then we go through the "panic period". But, then the pattern ends up cycling through what we thought it was. With this said, guessing the exact amount of snow is really impossible.

Gary

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Gary can't wait for your winter forecast. I have been reading a multiude of long-range forecast from a variety of sources around Kansas and the Mid-West and a week after this weekend and through Thanksgiving week could be interesting here in Kansas. I know the longer you try to predict long range the fuzzier it gets. Anyway let's hope for the best this winter. Michael
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Michael,

Yes, it could get interesting soon. And, the jet stream gets stronger and stronger into January. So there is hope. It has dried out and I hope this doesn't continue. I don't think it will.

Gary

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Gary, I have to be up at 5AM, so I'll listen to you on KMBZ at 6:49 AM?
A month and a week or so ago, my amateur weather theory showed a snow for somebody close Friday or Saturday with my coindence of a 1987 weather pattern. Although it's off a bit, it's still closer than any other "year" since I've kept records from 1971 based on the first frost, etc. If you go by strictly temps, we have nearly identical temps as last year, day to day. (a pattern.) Based on the current temp pattern as last year, we would be led to think our winter would be similar to last year.
Regardless of whatever one believes in a theory or patterns, the fact is there is a generic beginning and end to these cycles. That's where your experiece comes in.
Also, everybody needs to understand, you are forcasting for the entire KC area. Weather can be completely different south of I-44 as much as it is between north and south of the River.
Good Luck and, according to the coindence of 1987, it will snow 8" on December 4th.
GaryB
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Gary,

There have been some similarities to the temperatures. But the pattern is different. Man, I hope it is like that winter.

Gary

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Gary,
I can not wait until tonight! Winter is the best season of the year in my opinion, and I hope we have a COLD and Snowy Winter!
I am only 15 and have really never had a really snowy winter! (atleast as long as I can remember!) Good luck tonight! Kansas City's eyes are all on you!

Jacob Honeycutt
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Jacob,

Winter is my favorite season too! When you were one year old is the last time we had a big winter.

Gary

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As a viewer, tell your boss I would be more likely to watch the newscast on this channel if more focus were put on the weather. I could do without some of the lessor interest stories. If the viewers are asking for it, seems logical to explore. Or...you could do it on your HD channel.
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Scott,

This is always a battle. There are always stories that the news people think are interesting, and they may be to about 10% of the viewers, but the other 90% couldn't care less about many of the stories. Weather always is the biggest reason people watch local news. Perhaps 50% are waiting for the weather each night, and when the weather is more interesting that number likely goes up much higher. But, I can never convince them of this.

Gary

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I just posted my entry for the snowflake contest. Now I can't wait to hear your winter forecast tonight Gary. Hopefully I will be on the same mind track as you!!! Thanks to all your weather team. They are great.
Vicki Davis
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Vicki,

Thank you and good luck!

Gary

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Gary I love the snow just as much as you do so don't disappoint me.
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Brett,

I will be sad too if we don't come close to our forecast. Let's see what happens between now and Christmas.

Gary

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FINALLY!!!! Less than two hours!
This is the long awaited moment, as if it were on cue I can hear the leaves hitting the window beside the computer as the wind gusts, I hope it is a foreshadowing of the GRC winter forcast!
Thanks for your time and the hard work putting together the Winter Forcast!
Nick in St. Joe!
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Nick,

Hopefully you enjoyed the winter forecast. And, now a strong cold front has come through.

Gary

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Gary, Will your winter forecast be put up on the webpage?

And is something wrong with streaming weather plus? My computer won't play it anymore... it just started acting up last night.

Thanks!
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Sara,

I will look into the streaming. The winter forecast is online. Have a great weekend.

Gary

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Hi Gary:

It is amazing that some forecasters believe that the current El Niño pattern will be one of the factors that determines the nature of the coming winter. However I have also read that the government’s weather service is overplaying its effects. Unlike the National Weather Service forecast, some do not see this winter being warmer than normal across the vast majority of the country.

Do you agree with this?

"A cooler-than-normal winter along the East Coast and eastern Gulf Coast, and a warmer–than–normal winter from the western Great Lakes to the Pacific Northwest.

An El Niño–a cyclical occurrence of warmer–than–normal Pacific waters–can have repercussions on worldwide weather patterns, particularly a strong El Niño, which features water temperatures that are significantly warmer over a broad expanse of tropical ocean. Research points to an El Niño that will remain at its current weak to moderate level, and may even weaken as the winter progresses. Because of this,
a "typical" El Niño winter–such as the one predicted by the National Weather Service last week–that features warmer–than–normal temperatures across much of the U.S. is not as likely to occur.

We predict that the current El Niño will not be only determinant of this year’s winter weather," said Bastardi. "This year’s winter will hinge on the timing and interaction of complex meteorological factors that would be overridden by a stronger El Niño that others seem to be expecting."

One of these factors that shape the upcoming season is the formation of a high pressure area over Greenland or northeastern Canada. This would force Arctic air down into the Northeast. If this occurs as expected, the Northeast could experience severe, prolonged cold–ten days or more of temperatures averaging five to ten degrees below normal–during the middle to late winter, most likely during the month of January.

"Signs are pointing to the possibility of a rough conclusion to winter for the Northeast," said AccuWeather.com Director of Forecast Operations Ken Reeves. "Examining past years where we see similar patterns to what we expect this winter bears this out. For example, the winter of 1992–1993 was moderate until early February, when it then became colder and snowier, and culminated with a harsh blizzard on March 13. Another of the winters we see a parallel to is 1957–1958, which again began more moderately, and concluded with significantly colder temperatures and major February and March snow storms."

Acuu Weahter Forecaster Joe Bastardi sums up his expectations for the upcoming December to February period this way: "the eastern U.S. will experience a colder–than–normal winter overall. The area from the eastern and central Great Lakes to the south–central and southwestern U.S. will experience near–normal winter temperatures. The region that stretches from the western Great Lakes to the Pacific Northwest will likely see above–normal temperatures."

Bastardi forecasts a wetter–than–average swath from southern and central California to the southern Plains and Southeast and up the East Coast, because an expected active subtropical jet stream will send storms on a track across the southern U.S. and likely ensure wet weather in the southern tier of the nation. How this moisture times itself with the arrival of colder air will determine how much snow the Northeast can expect, but winter is likely to be snowier than normal in the region–a mainstay of all winters since 2002. Very warm water relative to normal off all coasts provides ample moisture for any storm and, timed with cold air, would lend itself to heavy snowfall in the higher elevations of the Southwest and Southeast, and also the chance for some major coastal storms on the East Coast.

The pattern AccuWeather.com forecasts for the winter could lead to a significant problem next summer: the increased threat of wildfires. "The wetter pattern across the southern half of California and into the Southwest may spell yet another bad season for wildfires next year," said Reeves, "as the vegetation that flourishes this rainy season dies next year under the intense summer sun."

Source: Accuweather.com

I know that is long, but I wanted to hear YOUR input on thsi Gary.
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Brian,

That ACCU weather forecast is 99% an El Nino forecast. There will be some influences from El Nino, but only a minor factor on what actually happens around this part of the nation.

Gary

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Hurrah! 25 inches of snow this winter!

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Hey Gary! I just wanted you to know that I always enjoy your winter forecast. Thanks for making weather fun in Kansas City.
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Josh,

I am glad you enjoyed it.

Gary

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WOO-HOO!!!!! 25 Inches of SNOW sounds GREAT!!!!!!! I hope the ICE, that your calling for, is going to be SNOW. That way we could have 30+ inches of SNOW. However, I will be happy to have a winter, for the first time in a while, to have 2ft or more of snow.

Keep up the good work.
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Matt,

Let's see what happens!

Gary

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Gary,

Enjoyed your winter forecast! I was expecting though to find out what the cycle length was this year, what is it -- or when do you anticipate knowing it? By December?

Once the pattern is completely set it would be helpful to see maps showing how the cycle is repeating. Would you do this for us?

Thanks,
Tim in GW
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Exactly Tim,

We have to wait until the first cycle is completed before we know the length of the cycle.

Gary

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Good morning gary and company, having a pretty good little thunderstorm up here in trenton this morning, lots of lightning, stiff north wind blowing.. temp has droped almost 6f since 5am down to 44f now.

what's your thoughts on snow up in my neck of the woods tonight, NWS has added a chance of "rain and snow" for tonight.
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Glen,

Maybe a few flakes now that the echoes are leaving.

Gary

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Thanks so much for working to get the Winter Forecast on the site this early today! Can't say I'm thrilled to read 25 inches of snow and one or two ice events, but I know alot of folks on this blog are very excited about it! Sounds like it you could have some exciting weather to forecast this winter!

So... another few weeks as the pattern settles and some fine tuning?

Thanks again Gary, and to your Web team also. Keep up the good work all! - mt
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Mike,

Thank you! Yes, we will know more soon.

Gary