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Weather Pattern Theory part 4
Good morning everyone,
Have you been looking at the computer models lately? They look different every day. Is this unusual? No! When you look at the computer models, errors are made. In the first 6 hours of data there are errors. These compound as we get to 12 hours. By 60 and 72 hours there are so many errors, but the data can still be somewhat reliable. After 72 hours it becomes much less reliable, so when you look at a map that is a forecast for 120 hours and beyond it has very little chance to be even close to what will really happen. The GFS goes out to 384 hours and it is almost always just fantasy at that point and it tries to repeat what has been going on earlier in the model run. So, if we are in a stormy pattern today, then the GFS and other models often show other storm systems at days 5 through 16. The next day as the storm flattens or moves on the pattern looks more like that and suddenly what you thought would be storm systems forever has now changed to when will we have another storm?
So, my point is: be careful when looking at the maps past day 3. Look for where there may be errors in the data and then make your own ideas of what may actually happen. The models have tried to put snow near Kansas City a couple of times already during the past two weeks. I analyzed it and saw absolutely no way with the situation we were in.
And, now to my weather pattern theory. Remember my theory states that the weather pattern sets up between October 10th and November 10 and then begins cycling. We are still in that 31 day stretch. It is only November 1st. This is why I am still analyzing deeply every day. It isn't what the computer models show, it is what actually happens that counts. And, not the specific weather like rain, snow, cold, and warm near the surface, but what actually happens in the upper levels of the atmosphere. One more point......Think about this........The Ocean is a flat surface, a huge energy source for sure, but still a flat surface with varying temperatures that influence the weather. The atmosphere above is a huge ocean with no noticeable boundaries from the surface up to about 50,000 feet, the top of the troposphere, which is called the tropopause. This is where all of the weather that we experience occurs. This is SO much bigger than the ocean....MUCH larger, and this is one of the reasons I believe El Nino, La Nina, PDO, and other ocean temperature anamolies and oscillations have only a minor influence on the developing weather pattern or GRC. Something MUCH bigger is going on that we just can't see.
Don't forget....Our winter forecast is unveiled on Thursday night, NOVEMBER 9th! Please pass the word.
Gary
Posted by at November 1, 2006 8:34 AM
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Gary, I made a huge mistake last night. I watched another station at 9:17pm. Sorry but im addicted to weather. Anyways they had the highs all next week in the mid 70s. Also can you tell me what the GRC is Again. Thanks im praying for a great white winter.
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Michael,
There have already been forecasts for snowstorms from some other sources in recent weeks as well. When there is a chance of 70s and a chance of snow we will let you know. I do see some potential for it getting into the 70s later next week, but the pattern is changing every day so let's see how it looks as we get a bit closer.
The GRC was named by Scott, one of the bloggers, and it stands for Gary's Recurring Cycle.
Gary
Posted by: Michael at November 1, 2006 10:02 AM
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Gary: I'm in Nairobi, Kenya unfortunately not on vacation but on the job. Thank goodness for KSHB's website where I can go and see what's happening at home to include the weather and your latest weather theories. This has been a relatively short trip of 3 weeks and I'll be home this weekend and be tuning in KSHB and watching while relaxing with my wife who, because of my two careers has not seen me for about half that time.
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Bill,
I am glad that we can keep you updated in the blog. 3 weeks away must be tough, but as you said this is a shorter trip. It can't be easy.
Gary
Posted by: Bill Yarrow at November 1, 2006 10:21 AM
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Gary,
My whole family is wildly anticipating your winter forcast! We have it marked on the calendar and will be tuning in hoping for BIG snow totals this year! We moved last year from Colorado Springs and we're extremely jealous of their October snow storm!! Hopefully we will get to see a good storm or two this winter since the last one was so hit and miss(mostly miss!)! Looking forward to the 9th!
Janine and Family
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Janine & family,
Thank you for watching. Colorado Springs got blasted, but maybe we will get our share this winter. I am not sure yet, so let's be patient.
Gary
Posted by: Janine at November 1, 2006 11:06 AM
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See? THIS kind of information is what makes your forecasts so interesting. Years ago, I remember writing a letter to the GM at a competitor's station and suggested that the meterologist there give us more information than just a "front moves in, front moves out, rain likely" kind of forecast. They didn't do it, but I got a nice letter back. haha.... Anyway, YOU'RE doing that and, as I thought then, people DO appreciate getting more detail and having a better understanding of what is affecting their weather - which affects us all.
So... good job as always! Keep it coming!
BTW... I had to watch another (GASP!) station at 5 last night to pick up on a news story they only were covering and noted your competitor there now has HIS winter weather forecast coming next week. Looks like you've started something! - mt
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Mike,
Thank you and yes, and they are actually using my theory a little bit, or copying our techniques.
Gary
Posted by: Mike at November 1, 2006 11:38 AM
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Oh Gary..now you have done it. ;-) I am not sure I fully agree with your synopsis regarding the ocean. First - by surface area, you are totally underestimating the ocean's influence. The ocean covers the majority of the earth's surface both by volume and mass. Don't sell that short, afterall, earth is the water planet. Two, remember that most 90%+ of the earth's water/moisture is in the ocean, not the atmosphere. Third, remember that the ocean is the greatest engine within the the carbon cycle and processing CO2, which greatly affects how heating occurs in the atmosphere. Obviously, heating in the atmosphere sets up thermoclines, thus H/L pressure gradients, thus jetstreams and ultimately - well..weather.
I can appreciate your bold stance and how you believe the GRC relates...but don't sell the ocean short. ;-)
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Scott oh Scott, oh Scott,
Look carefully at what I am talking about. The Ocean is a flat surface of water with varying tempertures and patterns. The volume of water below the surface does not affect the atmosphere above. The volume of atmosphere above is where our weather occurs and it is MUCH larger than the flat ocean below. It makes sense to me.
Gary
Posted by: Scott at November 1, 2006 11:44 AM
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Gary,
Here is a sampling of temperature readings taken at the 11:00 hour.
Overland Park: 42F
Olathe: 42F
Lawrence: 41F
Lee's Summit: 42F
Saint Joseph: 40F
Downtown: 44F
KCI: 46F
I contancted NOAA about the KCI thermometer and the only explanation that they gave was that the placement of the thermometer could be at a higher elvated location, but they did not tell me exactly where the outdoor thermometer is located at KCI. I continue to tell them that the thermometer is reading to warm. Maybe they could change the location of the temperature gauge.
I know that the Chicago O'Hare Airport thermometer is located at the end of one of there airport runways. I thought that was interesting.
Devin
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Devin,
It is consistent. The next time we have rain with 100% humidity everyones temperatures should be within one degree of each other. This will be the next test.
Gary
Posted by: Devin at November 1, 2006 12:03 PM
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Gary, some great things to think about! One thing is for sure, your theory is very complicated!
Anyways, a question off the subject. Since Jamie is now gone from KSHB, are you bringing in another meteorologist, or will Jeff be taking over for her on the weekends?
Tim in GW
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Tim,
Yes, our new meteorologist will start on Saturday.
Gary
Posted by: Tim in Greenwood at November 1, 2006 12:58 PM
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gary,
Why are you not responding to the blog entries? And how do you feel about the weather pattern that is setting up?
Andy
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Andy,
I am responding. Our webmaster posted all of the comments a couple of hours ago before I could read them.
The weather pattern is rather strange. I haven't put my finger on it yet.
Gary
Posted by: Andy at November 1, 2006 2:01 PM
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To be fair, the GRC is not based on all 50,000 ft, but only the stream at 500mb, right?
But...I see your point to an extent. Yes, the interaction between the surface of the ocean and the atmosphere is key, but the point of no clear demark of atmosphere up to 50K is true, but a bit skewed in how it relates to the GRC. If it was just one big mass and could not be segmented, then models and meteorologists would not worry about the 1000mb, 850mb, 500mb, or 300mb levels, and the GRC would not just focus on the 500mb level.
I think. LOL
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Scott, oh Scott, oh Scott, LOL
We utilize the data from 500 mb, or 18,000 feet up, but it is the entire atmosphere interacting in that huge volume of air, MUCH, MUCH larger than that flat ocean below.
Gary
Posted by: Scott at November 1, 2006 4:53 PM
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per the national weather service sensor setting standards. the temp sensor at KCI, should be in the "center of the runway complex" you will also note in the winter due to location, Saint Joseph, and Chillicothe read several degrees colder than others..
speaking of cold.. did you notice that I have had a low temp for the month that was almost 10f colder than KC's lowest low. my coldest reading was 21 for the month.
we've also had our first flakes of snow back on 10-22
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Glen,
Thank you for the update! I knew you were down well into the 20s, but 21 is cold.
Gary
Posted by: glen briggs at November 1, 2006 6:26 PM
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My husband and I are a little confused about the rules for the snowflake contest. The rules say "Only one (1) postcard or email entry per person per household or email address". Does this mean one entry per person, or one per household? He was getting ready to enter his prediction, but if we only get one shot total for both of us, I will make him wait until after your much anticipated winter forecast on Nov. 9.
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Koyuki,
One entry per person is the rule. So, you can enter another name on the same email.
Good luck!
Gary
Posted by: Koyuki at November 1, 2006 6:29 PM
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Gary,
Tonight will be the night to watch and see how much warmer KCI is compared to all the other reporting stations. On nights with light winds and clear skies, KCI is always much warmer than many other locations. During the winter season when there is snow on the ground the difference can be even greater sometimes.
Devin
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Devin,
Let's watch those temperatures.
Gary
Posted by: Devin at November 1, 2006 7:35 PM
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Gary,
I just checked the average temperatures for the month of October on the Pleasant Hill web page. KCI was -0.5F below average for the month while Saint Joseph was -4.3F below average. The other reporting stations did not list departures from average anomalies.
Devin
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Devin,
Those morning lows are very important.
Gary
Posted by: Devin at November 1, 2006 7:55 PM
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I made a comment on the blog around 12:45P.M. or so and it didn't get through?, Oh well, things happen.
Anyways thanks for the insight on the ocean/atmosphere connection!
Do you think we will have any cloud deck form tonight like last night? It wasn't much but is was enough I think to keep St. Joe from getting down to 20 degrees.
Thanks for your time.
Nick in St. Joe!
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Nick,
I don't think we will have any cloud problems tonight.
Gary
Posted by: Nick Rau at November 1, 2006 9:10 PM
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Gary,
KCI has been the warmest spot yet again this morning. The low has been 30.9F whereas all the areas including well into the south have been down to the 20's.. Downtown hit 27F. I am not sure if it something with the positioning of the thermometer or a problem with the thermometer itself. We need to get this brought to NOAA's notice so that they can correct it ASAP. Is there an email or phone number which can be used to report this problem to NOAA or KCI?
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Mahesh,
The NWS webmaster email is: w-eax.webmaster@noaa.gov
There definitely is a problem.
Gary
Posted by: Mahesh at November 2, 2006 7:57 AM
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Gary,I hope it is going to be a wonderfull winter I am expecting we will get 0.00 inches of snow to about 20.00 inches of snow. Brandon Stafford.
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Brandon,
Do you know how people think? If you say 0 to 20 inches then everyone will go around the city saying "Brandon is predicting 20 inches". This is how people think. If a storm is coming in and we go 2 to 6 inches then we end up getting about 2 to 3 inches.....I end up getting the "you said 6 inches would fall. This is one of the dilemmas of snow forecasting.
Posted by: Brandon at November 2, 2006 5:17 PM
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I want to enter the SnowFlake contest. I could't find where.
My guess is November 19th at 4:5o pm.
Marjorie Engelmann
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Marjorie,
Just stay on our site, click on weather, then on the left you will see snowflake contest.
I can't enter you through the blog. Sorry.
Gary
Posted by: Marjorie Engelmann at November 9, 2006 9:24 AM
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